Sky High Gasoline

“Some of you were complaining back on 9/11/01.

How did you ever survive this long?”

“believe me, I am laughing at all those dumb people with SUVs! :D”

“They're probably real jealous of your Yugo.”

“whats a Yugo??”

“you know a you go”

“The "buy oil stock" meme is one of the dumbest going around. Even assuming that one could buy enough oil company stock in a balanced portfolio to make up for a doubling or tripling of fuel costs, won't management take some of that money as compensation for moving your money around so nicely?”

“I dont have one of those :) We have a hondai accent :)
last edited: 8/17/05 5:30:41 PM”

“Violin - Much of that money get reinvested to grow the company even more for the stockholders, the workers who work for the company, the people who deliver, etc etc etc etc etc

If it failed, would you then be happy?”

“I'll let the union reps for Marathon know that the employees can expect an 86% increase. That would sure compensate for the high gas prices.”

“Buddha - So you think if a company makes $10 one year, and $20 the next, everyone gets a raise equal to double last year's salary to be fair? Wow! You're not a business owner are you?”

“Yup. In the "as long as I get mine" society, it's perfectly okay to abandon what is good for the nation as long as one owns enough oil stock to get a personal benefit.

Or maybe we live in the "perfect scenario" society, in which we tell all the poor people in bad times that it's all their fault because they didn't choose the one investment strategy out of 1,000 that produced an amazing return.

I guess if we pray hard enough, God will tell us which lottery balls to pick.”

“Ever see a car accident between two Yugos? It's quite comical.”

“lurker - You seem to have an excellent grasp on how the stock market should work. Maybe you should suggest your ideas to an economist and see what they say.”

“Sarge.

I am saying that there are national goals that sometimes trump personal opportunity to profit. Terror War vs. Tax Cuts was one of those places.

I also think that it is easy to point to Ebay or oil stocks and say "See, if you'd only done that."

I don't begrudge risk takers an opportunity to grow rich. But there also needs to be opportunity for hard workers who hedge their bets.

BTW, here's lurker's investment strategy: I'll never know as much as an insider. So, I try to be as diversified as possible and bet on America long term. Picking and timing is a losing strategy for most of us.

Oh, and don't spend money foolishly, like on a big ole' new SUV. A penny saved and invested is better than one spent. That ought to make the economists happy.”

“But there also needs to be opportunity for hard workers who hedge their bets.

How so, or why?”

“Oh, and I don't think that there is a relationship between belief in God and economic good-fortune. I don't think that God pays us off for believing.”

“Oh, and I don't think that there is a relationship between belief in God and economic good-fortune. I don't think that God pays us off for believing.

I can see you've read your Bible.”

“Sarge, I am not opposed to some people making lots and lots of money. That's fine.

But there are lots of moms and dads out there whose family situation - kids, elderly/disabled parents - make it a bad choice to take a great deal of risk. Those people need to be able to live in a great middle of society that works hard and provides.

And if you look at the stats, the vast majority of people don't ever get rich. Society is skewed too much to the extremes.”

“"Leave all things you have and come and follow me."

Jesus eschewed physical comfort and material wealth. At least that's my take on it.

I was watching the Oral Roberts' show on TV last night and his son was on there saying that if people just sent in money, they would become debt-free. It was completely ridiculous.”

“BTW, everyone is welcome to follow their beliefs.

But evangelical Christianity has a special place in society because it is the largest, most influential group.

Its norms and beliefs - including economic theories - have become the prevalent norms and beliefs.

Therefore, it is open to criticism in a way that other, more privately-held religions are not.

To those given much, much is expected.

OR,

Don't cry when the backlash begins.”

“lurker - All you've done is said that these people should be given a kind of "chance", but you haven't said how. That's the issue. Money doesn't grow on trees. So, where are they going to "hedge their bets"?

It's one things to say moms/dads, etc. deserve a better chance (as if people who better used their resources to make more money aren't moms/dads too), but it's another to say how that's going to be done. You seem to think that rich people are mostly born into that situation. Like they're rich because they're evil or something. Most of these people are very FRUGAL, and WORK HARD.

(ps - If you get your beliefs about Christians and their beliefs from watching Oral Roberts ... omg.)”

“huh huh huh heh heh heh

you said "oral"”

“I just think it's high time for Bush to get on the phone with the OPEC cartel and say we expect you to open your spigots. There has obviously been collusion among Big Oil to drive up prices by restricting supply and Bush needs to intercede. I mean, the Kuwaitis and the Saudis owe us BIG TIME for getting rid of Saddam, it's time to spend some of our political capital.”

“good call, violin!”

“$2.63 8/18/05 ABQ NM”

“Paid $32 to fill up last night. I haven't paid that much to fill up since I had my truck and it had a 30 gal tank.”

“Expensive Beer Sells for $100 a BottleAugust 19, 2005 - A hundred bucks might seem cheap for a bit of utopia. But in this case Utopia's a beer brewed by the Samuel Adams company. It sells for 100 dollars a bottle.
Earlier this week, beer lovers got a chance to sample the high-brow brew that the Hop Devil Grill in New York City. Shot-sized servings were included as part of a 40-dollar-a-head beer lover's four-course dinner.

This is a brew to sip not swill. Some of the patrons say Utopias is closer to cognac or whiskey than to beer. The bar bought four bottles of the pricey, 50-proof brew.”

“Since when do liberals want cheap gas prices? I would think they would be applauding high prices.”

“Paid $51 to fill up the car last night. Glad I listened to my father when he said invest in oil companies!”

“i heard what's his name, the sam adams guy talking about this beer during an interview he did. he sounded very excited about it. i remember him saying it was more like brandy or something than beer.
last edited: 8/19/05 12:47:38 PM”

“Jim Cook?”

“Farmers are the latest group that are upset over the rising cost of fuel. All the farm machinery runs on oil and it's costing more to plant, grow, harvest and ship foods to market. It's making fertilizer prices rise too because some are made from oil. Small farms are especially feeling the pinch.”

“yup, that's him”

“It that Triple Boch he is talking about?”

“Sammi Klaus is like fine wine. It's significantly cheaper than that and only 14 percent alcohol. Nice after dinner drink.”

“http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/general/2005-08-18-mym-gas_x.htm?POE=click-refer

I just like the picture”

“Same old tired sign was used in the 70s, 80s, and 90s too.

Come to think of it, just about every summer signs exactly like this make the news.
last edited: 8/21/05 9:31:13 AM”

“Supply and demand... when it comes to gasoline I think most people don't really think about or understand either. This is especially true when you think on a global scale. Who wants it and how much are they willing to pay?”

“86% increases in profits (before the huge price increases in the past 3 weeks). Nuff' said.”

“pitts - Buddha Bear just made your point. Good point.”

“Stratfor analysis of high oil prices:

The Drivers Behind High Oil Prices
August 19, 2005 21 53 GMT


Summary

With the global economy growing at its fastest pace in 20 years, oil
prices are once again breaking record highs. Stratfor examines what the
markets are looking at, and what factors are actually driving them.

Analysis

The greatest reason for the continuation of this year's record-breaking
oil prices -- in the week beginning Aug. 14 Nymex repeatedly pushed $65
a barrel -- is the fact that the global economy is growing at its
fastest rate in 20 years. Economies require energy, and growing
economies require more.

But $65 a barrel sounds a bit excessive.

Chinese demand is often cited as a reason why prices have risen in such
a short time -- but that explanation falls short. Since 1980, growth in
Chinese energy demand has averaged about 24 percent of the growth in
total global demand. Since 2000, China's share has increased to 28
percent.

Though this is probably significant, it is hardly the sort of evolution
that results in a doubling of crude prices. In short, though China
certainly is a factor, it is not a new factor. If anything, the concern
should be that China might stumble. Not only is the growth in Chinese
oil demand for the past 12 months flat -- yes, flat -- Beijing just
formed 36 squads of 600 troops each to put down riots. Countries
worried about social discontent on that level do not make consistent
economic players.

The core reasons for the recent price increases are much less
xenophobic -- or recent. Since the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003,
all of the world's oil producers have been squeezing every last drop of
crude they can out of their fields. The only production assets in the
world that are not producing, aside from some questionable assets in
Saudi Arabia, are those closed for maintenance. Such a lack of buffer
massively increases volatility and provides a firm grounding under
energy prices.

It also contributes to risk, the second factor keeping prices high. The
energy markets are dealing with a terror premium from the fear that the
next militant attack could come anywhere, and a war premium from the
Iraqi situation. Taking into account the heightened global awareness of
political violence, the world has a combined premium anywhere from $5 a
barrel to $20 a barrel, depending on what analysis you rely upon.

But what is most notable about the current price environment is that
all of these factors are unraveling. Commercial inventories of crude
oil -- both American and global -- are exceeding five-year highs. The
U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the government's emergency crude oil
stockpile, completed filling just this month. European and Japanese
demand for crude is not only flat, but with the Kyoto Protocol in the
initial stages of enforcement, it might actually dip slightly in coming
months. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Libya and Canada are all increasing
capacity as fast as they can. Taken together, the market is about to
get some much-needed slack.

The risk premiums are likely to begin dissolving in the months ahead as
well. Though al Qaeda's July London bombings were atrocious by any
measure, they lacked the shock value or political impact of the Sept.
11 attacks or even of the March 11 Madrid attack. As an entity capable
of posing a strategic threat to American or Western interests, al Qaeda
is clearly on a downward slope. This does not mean it is harmless or
that attacks will end soon, but simply that al Qaeda is no longer a
driving force in geopolitical planning. Barring a miraculous
regeneration, it also will soon cease to deeply impact energy markets.

Similarly, the Iraq premium has likely peaked. For better or worse,
news of attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq is like caffeine for energy
prices. In recent weeks, the buzz in Washington has shifted from
whether U.S. forces will withdraw from Iraq to when they will withdraw.
Iraq's humanitarian tragedy undoubtedly will continue, but without
130,000 U.S. troops there, the international press is likely to turn
its attention to other issues.

Finally, there is the U.S. dollar. All energy contracts, even those
that originate in Gabon and finalize in China, are denominated in
dollars. Since bottoming out against the euro around the beginning of
the year, the dollar has risen about 12 percent. For any country not
using the dollar, or not pegged to it, crude oil has increased by a
comparable amount in addition to the 55 percent increase in the core
price of crude during the same period. With U.S. growth still steaming
ahead and interest rates rising, the dollar has nowhere to go but up.”

“Equilibrium in the marketplace occurs at the point that a willing seller and a willing buyer have a meeting of the mind....


or, more simply, where supply equals demand.


We can't rely on the Petroleum companies to do us any favors. They simply want to maximze profits.

What we need is a huge influx of research and development on alternative energy sources to power vehicles. Whether it is electric; hybrid; hydrogen; methenol; or something my simple mind won't comprehend; the only way we move equilibrium downward to to shift the slope on the demand side.

Automobile manufactures are only partly to blame. As long as people will line up to buy a SUV that gets less than 10mpg, there won't be much of an effort to supply the marketplace with revolutionary type vehicles that are not reliant on petroleum products.

When we throw rocks, we, as American Consumers, will only hit ourselves.”

““Equilibrium in the marketplace occurs at the point that a willing seller and a willing buyer have a meeting of the mind...."

So what are you saying? $150 for a 50/50 is a deal?”

“I wonder if anyone here has done anything at all to minimize their gas consumption?
No one I know, including myself, has done anything of much consequence. There's 6 of us in my office who all live in the same neighboring city 20+ miles away. No one wants to carpool. I wonder at what point we start making changes?”

“I wonder at what point we start making changes?”
le Subtil
11:32:42 AM
8/22/05

I dont know, maybe $3 a gallon.


I started riding my bike to work again today. Not really for the fuel savings (my commute is a 6 mile round trip) but for extra excercise and I enjoy it.”

“I drive another car when I can - we have three in my house, the other two are pretty economical, mine is a big ol' lunkering Toyota Landcruiser (an awesome vehicle in every other respect). If I'm running errands, going to the store, etc., I now take one of the others if available. In the past I'd just jump in mine without really thinking about it much.”

“That's a good question: at what point does the demand curve shift? The demand curve for gasoline is inelastic (it's nearly verticle), meaning people will pay almost any price. But, it does curve and at some point ($3.00-5.00?) demand will drop off.”