Leonid showers this coming weekend

“Leonid Meteor shower activity may peak this coming weekend. We may have one of the better astrological shows in years!!! I can't find a good link, but check out this one for basics.
http://leonid.arc.nasa.gov/1998.html

For those of us that will be out this weekend...an added attraction!!!”

“I N T E R N A T I O N A L M E T E O R O R G A N I Z A T I O N

Press release

November 18: the day of the Leonid meteors
==========================================

From North and Central America, as well as from Eastern Asia and
Australia, people may see a lot of meteors - "shooting stars" -
between midnight and dawn of the nights of November 17 to 18 or 18 to
19, provided skies are clear. These meteors belong to the so-called
Leonid shower.

A first peak, visible from North and Central America, is expected
around 9:55 a.m. Greenwich Mean Time on November 18, which is 4:55
a.m. Eastern Standard Time. An activity equivalent to several hundreds
to over one thousand meteors per hour (or 10-15 meteors per minute) is
expected around the peak time.

A second and a third peak are visible from Eastern Asia and, mainly,
Western Australia, around 5:24 and 6:13 p.m. Greenwich Mean Time on
November 18, which is 1:24 and 2:13 a.m. on November 19. The weaker
first peaked is expected to flow over into the stronger second peak,
for which an activity equivalent to several thousand meteors per hour
(2 meteors per second!) is expected.

Notice that American observers should watch in the second part of the
night of November 17 to 18, while Asian and Australian observers
should watch in the second part of the night of November 18 to 19!

The International Meteor Organization, who collects meteor
observations world-wide for the purpose of analysis, wishes to point
the attention of the public to this spectacular natural phenomenon.

The Leonids are caused by a stream of predominantly very small
particles, less than 1 mm in size, which orbit the Sun with a period
of 33 years, together with their parent comet, Tempel-Tuttle. The
orbit of the Leonid particles happens to intersect the Earth's
orbit. Each year around November 18, when the Earth is at this
intersection, Leonid particles may enter the Earth's atmosphere and
cause meteors, popularly called "shooting stars." This year, the
Earth will pass through three dense dust trails ejected by the Comet,
in addition to several fainter ones.

As the predications above are based on models, peak times and peak
rates may vary somewhat from the ones quoted above. In particular,
there are indications that the first, American, peak may be stronger
than quoted here, whereas the second and third, Asian/Australian may
be weaker than quoted here.

Whereas Europe, Western Asia, and Africa will miss both storms,
observers there may still see several tens up to one hundred meteors
per hour in the second half of the nights of November 17 to 18 and 18
to 19.

Actually, Leonid meteors can be seen every year around November 17.
Along the larger part of Comet Tempel-Tuttle's orbit, however, Leonid
particles are scattered sparsely, so that, in most years, we see only
a few Leonid meteors per hour. Only in the vicinity of the Comet, the
density of Leonid particles is much higher. Therefore, we observe much
higher Leonid activity every 33 years during a couple of years, when
Comet Tempel-Tuttle revisits our region of the Solar System. In some
instances, we even see a real meteor storm!

Old chronicles contain references to past Leonid meteor storms back to
the 10th century A.D. The best-known Leonid meteor storms are those of
1833 and 1966, when tens of meteors per second darted across the
skies during the peak hour! The 1833 meteor storm was so spectacular
that it in fact launched meteor research as a branch of astronomy.
Since the 1966 meteor storm, Comet Tempel-Tuttle has completed another
revolution around the Sun. The passage of the Comet through its
closest point to the Sun on February 28, 1998 marked the beginning of
a five-year period (1998-2002) during which strongly increased Leonid
meteor activity is again possible.

Although 1998 gave us an unexpected (but meanwhile convincingly
explained) fireball shower, the first storm in the present Leonid
epoch occurred in 1999, with a peak activity around 60 meteors per
minute (yielding an equivalent hourly rate of almost 4000). In 2000,
no storm was seen, but several peaks with a few hundred meteors per
hour occurred. Observations in 1999 and 2000 matched the predictions
by astronomers David Asher and Robert McNaught really well, so that
there is more than good hope that the predictions for this year
are reliable, too.

In order to see meteors, the sky must be clear and the selected
observing site should preferentially be free of light pollution; the
less light, the more meteors will be seen! Notice that Leonid meteors
occur in the second half of the night. Hence, there is no point in
starting an observation much earlier. Die-hards who do not want to miss
anything of the show should then continue to watch until dawn. People
who cannot afford to stay up that long should focus on a period of, say,
one tot two hours centered around the predicted peak time for their
region.

Mind that it can be very cold in mid-November: warm clothing adapted
to the local climate is essential! For comfortable observing, use a
reclining chair, and install yourself in a suitable sleeping bag or
under several blankets. While observing, do not fix a particular star,
but look relaxedly and patiently to a wide area of sky and wait for
shooting stars to appear.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

More information on the Leonids can be found in the International
Meteor Organization's bimonthly journal WGN and on the internet, at
http://www.imo.net and http://www.amsmeteors.org/imo-mirror.

For questions, contact Marc Gyssens at wgn@imo.net or +32-477-64 05 48.

Notice that the International Meteor Organization will send out a new
release with first results on the Leonids during the European early
morning hours of November 18, immediately after the event. All
recipients of the present release will automatically receive the new
release.”

“Here's another good overview.”

“Yes!!! I though I had missed the exitement with the cloudy weather we've been having.
I have the perfect spot in mind for this. The stargazing is awesome there, even when there's nothing going on.”

“The 2001 Leonids are anticipated to be the best showing for meteor showers since the 1999 Leonids over Saudi Arabia. They will peak in the early morning hours of the 18th of November with rates that could exceed the 1999 event (~2500 meteors per hour).

Several models are predicting two significant peaks: one over the United States (especially towards the west) beginning about 3-4 am EST and lasting until 6-7 am EST. The maximum, according to these models, will occur around 5 am EST. The level of activity for this peak could be as much as 2000 meteors per hour.

The second significant peak will begin around 12 noon EST and last until 2 pm EST on the 18th of November.

So actually the shower event will be late night Sat, rather than Sun night...don't forget!!!”

“FYI - If your latitude is greater than 22 degrees, look to the SOUTHEAST; the further north of 22 degrees you are, the more the meteors will look to be arriving from the SOUTH.”

“17th... That's Saturday night. Perfect.”

“Back to the top!”

“

(caption)”

“*Somebody* is getting excited.


This is like Christmas for you, isn't it?”

“Yaz... almost as much fun as Halloween! I'm heading out for dark skies tomorrow.

Well... kinda dark.

How I'm supposed to wake up at 4 AM, I don't know. I think I'll just pull an all-nighter, *G*. I keep thinking of how the Leonids were in the late 19th Century -- THOUSANDS per hour... but it's theorized that Jupiter's gravity well messed them up.



(a woodcut from 1833)”

“Tilt, Buddur, et al,

Kudos to you all for sharing the info. The current Pennsylvania forecast for Saturday night is "mostly clear" skies, so I plan to be up very early on Sunday morning to catch the expected show. Hopefully, it'll be as dramatic as predicted.

Thanks again!”

“Yep! Murphy's Law works overtime when it comes to the weather and Astronomy.

Still, any time away from the concrete is time well spent.”

“I'm tingling in antici......












...pation.”

“yay, Saturday night!! that was a good idea those meteors had, coming on Saturday :-) i'll get to see them...as long as the weather's good...and as long as i'm not too wasted. i'll be at a party, yay!”