Do weathermen ever flunk metorology scho ol?

“I saw a metoroligist give the forcast the other night and he said we would have an unseasonably cold 6 degrees for the overnight low. What the heck is unseasonal about 6 degrees in winter? For June, 6 degrees would be unseasonable but not for winter.

How can a weatherman predict rain at 34 degrees and snow at 38 degrees?

When a student of metorolgy is taking a test in school and he gets the answer wrong, can he say HEY! it's mother nature for crying out loud!!!!!! Anything can happen!!!!!!!

Metoroligist should give no more than a 48 hour forcast. Anything farther out than 48 hours is pure guess. I know, I'm a student of the weather. I've predicted better forcasts with no degree.

Do weathermen/weatherwomen actually do all the hard work of meterology or do they just listen to NOAA and repeat it?

How's come when a forcaster gives the weather, the temperature and precipitation is always above or below average? Do they change the averages year to year or just keep it the same because that's the average?

Just a few wonderings from someone who has it out for the weatherman.”

“...ask deathmarch99.....”

“One question at a time, please.”

“Okay, where shall i begin....

Unseasonable cold just means that it is going to be colder then it usually is. By usually I mean the average temperature for that area. Obviously 6 degrees is unseasonably cold for Florida regardless that it is winter.

Rain can occur at 36 and snow can occur at 38. Just because the surface temperature is 38 degrees doesn't mean that the layers above it are. In fact temperature naturally decreases with heigth and in many cases can be cold enough to have snow reach the ground with surface temps at 38. Predicting the type of precip is more complex then knowing the surface temp alone.

Yes there is a right and wrong answer. Every thing we study is based off of actual numbers, so all our calculations are either right or wrong. When it comes to analyzing maps and things like that, yes there is no definate wright or wrong, but the analysis still has to be accurate. (IE the trough might not be exactly in the same place for every one, but it's location still must make sense according to the data). Believe me, not ANYTHING can happen. I wish that excuse would work.

I'll tell you a big secret. Anything beyond a 72 hour forecast is crap. Anything from the weather channel is crap. All of those long range predictions are made exclusivly by computer models. Even though there are 4 or 5 different models that are cross referenced they are still only good at showing trends. So a model will show a low pressure system developing and moving up the eastern seaboard, but won't tell exactly if it will hit Boston, how much snow it will drop or exactly how strong it will get. The big factor in this is that there are just too many variable for the computer to crunch.

Do mets just repeat the NOAA forecast? What mets are you talking about? TV mets often buy their forecasts from private companies. The weather channel does there own and uses the NOAA forecast. Somehow they mix the two. Some TV mets actaully do make their own forecasts but they're rare.

As for the average question, think about it. How many things are ever exactly the average. The average is the median between the extremes, so the average is often not followed. It's usually going to fluctuate around it.


any more questions??? just ask”

“They don't call it chaos theory for nothing!”

“i thought it was "meteorology."

once, i saw a drunk weatherdude giving the forecast...it was freakin' hilarious!! i know he had to be drunk...he was staggering around all over the place!”

“Deathmarch99 - which website is the best for weather forecasts in your opinion? I'm a total geek and love playing amateur meteorologist, and I look at the NOAA wx forecasts along with Accuweather's, and make my own educated guesses based on the weather maps if there is a discrepency between the two. I have a few very good friends who work for the weather channel, but unfortunately, I find that channel's predictions to be off more than the others. I've also noticed that sites such as weatherunderground.com and weatherbug take their forecasts directly from NOAA without any modifications.

Thoughts?”

“I've always had pretty good luck with the NOAA forecast. I get my information from www.weathertap.com but it's just the NOAA forecast too.
Unisys weather is a site that is based off of a software package developed at Purdue. The nice thing about this page is that you can see the direct model output. So you can see what the forecasters are making their forecasts off of.”

“Did you pass Spelling school?
Let's hope not...”

“Actually, I get more accurate forecasts from the TV guide channel than the weather channel. And, is there anything more ridiculous than an extended 7 day forecast! They can barely predict 2 days!”

“I still say "unseasonably" is wrong. It should be "unusually" cold.

As far as spelling, Who the f*ck cares? There's not been one swinging d*ck on this site that hasn't misspelled something at one time or another.

deathmarch99 it is nice to see a little honesty from someone who is in the know about the weather. The local weather forcasters like to give the forcast like it's gold.
They give you the 5 day forcast and than change it everyday until that day finally arrives and than it looks like they know what the hell they're talking about.

Just curious, how much does a typical meteoroligist make a year?”

“That Unisys site is pretty cool, deathmarch.. thanks for posting the link. :-)”

“I like the Unisys map better. I too like to second guess the forecasters. The maps help, but none of the sites I've seen really show a North America map, which would tell us a lot more.

For instance, the current weather pattern is almost a precise dead wringer for the cold weather cycle of the North Atlantic Oscillation, a direct opposite of what we had back in December. The El Nino is breaking up, a high pressure ridge is centered over the Ohio Valley, and although the map does not show it, there is most likely a large low over southern Greenland. That creates a circulation pattern that empties out the Arctic over the eastern US. Until the ridge and the low break up, we will have cold temps. When will it break up? By May at the latest!”

“I just looked at Unysis and it looks like it's already beginning to break up. But there is another ridge out over the Rockies. Will it move eastward? We shall see.”

“I hope that's right! I love the cold!! [:-)”

“You must also take into account your location. The local news forecasts I get are for cities down in the valley so I know to take my elevation into account and knock off a few degrees, so if they call for 36 degrees and rain I could have 31 degrees and snow.”

“Yeah Must Hike, but you can always go out and shoot seals!”

“I prefer to club them.”

“I shoulda know'd that!”

“Also, remember that many so-called "weathermen"/"Meteorologists" have nothing more than a degree in Broadcast Journalism. A few on the Weather Channel fit this profile.

As far as forecasts go, they're obsolete a minute after they're published. As a pilot and flight instructor I can't tell you how many times the aviation forecasts have been a bust. A few years back a cold front unexpectedly stalled(became stationary) while I was over the Florida panhandle and dense fog set in an area around 250 miles in radius and all the airports including my destination closed. Needless, to say I didn't have enough fuel in my tanks to fly out of the area. I seriously considered calling my wife on my cell phone to say "goodbye". Luck was on my side that night and the fog lifted to about 300feet(technically not fog above 50 feet agl) for about 15 minutes at Mobile and I made it down safely. That night I knew what it was like to know ahead of time my life was going to end. Still gives me chills...”

“You people are asking for the future in solid terms. What about histroy, it's already happened and we can't agree on it.”