Economy UP

“AHHHHH! MY MONITOR IS MELLLLLLLTING!”

“Heard this on CNBC... the numbers are still heavy in service jobs.

Ya Wont Frys Wit Dat?”

“It’s a moving target, laqtis. Even if we had another 2 million jobs tomorrow, the US work force has grown by about 5 million people since the recession started. We need a LOT more jobs before we break even.”

“Right on, Vi.

I know.

Where's that can of gas?”

“May Payrolls Rise 248,000; Jobless Rate at 5.6%
June 4 (Bloomberg)

-- U.S. employers added 248,000 workers to payrolls in May, more than forecast, helped by the biggest gain in manufacturing employment in almost six years. The economy has now recouped all the jobs lost since the recession ended in November 2001. The unemployment rate held at 5.6 percent.

The increase follows revised gains of 346,000 jobs in April and 353,000 in March that were larger than estimated last month, the Labor Department said in Washington. Manufacturing employment rose the most since August 1998 and hours worked at factories were the highest since October 2000. Service and construction employment rose.

``Business confidence is pretty high given the amount of hiring we are seeing,'' said Henry Willmore, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. ``Businesses feel the improvement in sales is enduring enough to justify hiring.'' Willmore had forecast a 250,000 gain in payrolls.

Rising wages will keep consumers spending and ensure the economy continues to expand for the rest of the year, economists said. Last month's gain underscores expectations Federal Reserve policy makers will raise the benchmark interest rate target by a quarter percentage point when they meet June 29-30. At 1 percent, the overnight bank lending rate is the lowest in 46 years.

Fed Move `Certain'

``A 25 basis-point increase this month is pretty much a certainty at this point,'' said Cary Leahey, a senior economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York, before the report.

U.S. 10-year Treasury notes fell after the report. The 4 3/4 percent note maturing in May 2014 rose about 1/8, pushing down its yield 2 basis points to 4.69 percent at 9 a.m. in New York.

Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures expiring in June rose 9.80 to 1124.70. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures added 78 to 10,263 and Nasdaq-100 Index futures increased 18 to 1461.

Revisions to April and March boosted payrolls by an additional 74,000. The increase of 947,000 jobs during the past three months was the most for any comparable period since March- May 2000.

``The floodgates have opened,'' said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``Executives have finally decided that this expansion is for real.''

Economists had expected payrolls would rise by 225,000 following a previously reported increase of 288,000 in April, according to the median of 73 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. They projected the unemployment rate would hold at 5.6 percent.

`Tug of War'

The economy has created 1.2 million jobs so far this year. Employment gains have yet to help President George W. Bush blunt criticism about his handling of the economy as concerns mount about record gasoline costs and the war in Iraq.

``You have a tug of war between higher oil prices and employment,'' said Leahey, a senior economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York, before the report. ``Those negative factors are very important, but will be trumped by a strong labor market.''

Job gains are coming at a time when gasoline prices have reached record highs and unrest has mounted in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East, restraining consumer optimism. Polls last week showed Bush's job approval ratings dropped to the lowest of his presidency as a majority disapproved of the way he was handling economic policy.

``We do not pick up on our data that the American public is perceiving that the economy is getting better,'' said Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup Poll, in an interview yesterday. ``The prospects of inflation and the gas prices are a big negative. And there may be a bleed-over effect from Iraq.'' Gallup has been tracking public opinion on the presidential races since the 1936 election.

Manufacturing Jobs

In an Oct. 20 interview with the Times of London, Treasury Secretary John Snow predicted the U.S. economy would grow around 4 percent over the next year and said such growth should ``translate into roughly two million new jobs from the third quarter of this year to the third quarter of 2004.''

So far, the economy has grown at a 4.25 percent average annual rate and created 1,368,000 jobs since the end of the third quarter.

Manufacturers added 32,000 jobs last month, the most since a 143,000 jump in August 1998 and the fourth straight increase. In April, factory payrolls rose by 29,000. The manufacturing workweek rose to 41.1 hours from 40.7 in April. Overtime rose by six minutes to 4.7 hours, the most since July 2000.

Average weekly hours worked for all employees held at 33.8 hours in May for a fifth month.

Incomes increased last month. Workers' average hourly earnings rose 0.3 percent, or 5 cents, matching the previous month's rise. Economists had expected a 0.2 percent increase in hourly wages. Average weekly earnings rose to $528.63 last month from $526.94 in April.

Services

Employment in service-producing industries, which include retailers, banks and government agencies, increased 176,000 last month after rising 294,000 in April. The increase, was led by a 64,000 rise in professional and business services jobs, such as those at temporary help agencies.

Construction employment increased 37,000 in May after a 19,000 increase. Payrolls rose 44,000 at education and health services after a 39,000 rise.

``The recovery is there,'' said Jeff Potter, chief executive at Frontier Airlines Inc., a Denver-based low-fare carrier, in an interview yesterday. ``We see people are flying.''

Frontier plans to boost its fleet to 62 aircraft by 2008 from 42 currently and employee 6,000 workers compared with 4,300, Potter said.

CEO Forecast

Twice as many chief executives said their companies would hire workers in the next six months than said they would eliminate staff, according to the results of a quarterly survey issued Wednesday by the Business Roundtable, a 150-member association of business leaders. Of the 116 executives polled, 38 percent predicted hiring would rise while 19 percent expected to cut jobs.

``We waited as long as we could to start hiring again, just to make sure it was sustainable, but the backlog of orders was growing significantly,'' said Fred Ouweleen, president of Pacific Miniatures, a Fullerton, California-based maker of airplane models for commercial carriers. The company has added 16 percent more workers to its payrolls in the last six months.

Turck Inc., which makes sensors for automated manufacturing lines, plans to add 75 workers to its 435-member workforce, Chief Executive Bill Schneider said in an interview. The Plymouth, Minnesota-based company had a 21 percent increase in revenue in the first quarter compared with a year earlier.

The price of crude oil rose to a record this week amid heightened concerns that terrorism would disrupt Middle East supplies. The average price of a gallon of gasoline at the pump rose to a record $2.104 in the week ended May 24, according to Department of Energy data.

Consumer Spending

A gain of 100,000 jobs a month would be enough to neutralize the effects of rising oil prices, higher interest rates and the loss of cash from less refinancing, said Deutsche Securities' Leahey. Economists at Deutsche Securities project payroll gains will surpass 200,000 a month on average for the rest of the year.

More hiring is fostering stronger income gains. Incomes rose 5.7 percent in the 12 months ended in April, the biggest year-over- year increase since December 2000, the Commerce Department reported last week.

Consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy, is likely to expand at a 4.2 percent annual pace this quarter after growing 3.9 percent in the first three months of the year, according to a forecast by James O'Sullivan and other economists at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. The increase will propel the economy to a 4.5 percent annualized rate of growth this quarter compared with 4.4 percent in the previous three months, according to the forecast.

The economy is projected to grow 4.6 percent this year, the most since 1984, led by consumer and business spending, according to economists surveyed this month by Bloomberg News.

Among blacks, the unemployment rate rose to 9.9 percent from 9.7 percent in April. The jobless rate for Hispanics decreased to 7 percent from 7.2 percent and for whites rose to 5 percent from 4.9 percent.

For teenagers, unemployment rose to 17.2 percent last month from 16.9 percent. The jobless rate for women fell to 4.8 percent from 5 percent. The jobless rate for men increased to 5.2 percent from 5 percent.



To contact the reporter on this story:
Carlos Torres in Washington ctorres2@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible on this story:
Kevin Miller at kmiller@bloomberg.net.”

“Jobs Growth Unexpectedly Strong in May

Jun 4, 8:38 AM (ET)

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. employers added an unexpectedly large 248,000 jobs in May, according to a government report on Friday that confirmed a strengthening economy likely to soon bring higher interest rates.
The May tally exceeded Wall Street expectations for 216,000 new jobs and followed an upwardly revised total of 346,000 jobs in April and 353,000 in March. The 947,000 jobs created in the March-May period made it the strongest for any three months in four years.

The cascading evidence of accelerating economic activity is certain to reinforce expectations that Federal Reserve policymakers will ratchet U.S. interest rates up from current 46-year lows when they meet June 29-30 and may prove a boon to election-bound President Bush.

The unemployment rate remained at 5.6 percent in May, unchanged from April.

Virtually every major sector of the economy added jobs in May, from retailing to construction industries. Particularly notable were 32,000 new hires in manufacturing -- a fourth straight monthly increase and the biggest for any month since August 1998 when 143,000 manufacturing jobs were created, the department said.

Nearly 1.2 million jobs have been added since the start of the year, adding fodder for a campaigning Bush to blunt Democratic criticisms fueled by the slow recovery from the 2001 recession.”

“Maybe some cheese fries....”

“The economic recovery started a long time ago, but Democrats continue to deny it is happening.

A political platform of negativity will not serve them well in the next election.”

“maybe they'll luck out and we'll have another recession or a terrorist attack....”

“They can only sit and pray for it Strat.”

“Another terrorist attack is the only way Bush can hope to be re-elected.”

“More positive thinking.”

“up up and away, in my beautiful my beautiful balooooooooooOOooo0oooOon”

“Look! It's Marilyn McCoo.”

“Based upon recent polls showing that Kerry is likely to win in November, employers have started to hire. It is reasonable to call this the 'Kerry Boom'.”

“Now that is far, far, far out there.”

“Really? The economy sheds jobs from the moment Bush is inaugurated until Kerry wraps up the nomination - then the job market makes an abrupt about face and starts creating jobs.

Just as the stock market anticipates future earnings, the US economy anticipates future political events.

Face it: Democrats just know how to run an economy better – Wall Street clearly recognizes this. Not only is a focus on jobs and alleviation of poverty morally right, it’s just plain good for capitalism.”

“Violin - The economy started shedding jobs well before Bush's economic policies ever had a chance to take effect. The bubble burst, Bush stopped the bleeding by putting tons of money back into the economy, and now we're reaping the benefits.

I shudder to think where our economy would be without the tax cuts and spending increases.

Liberal - "The sky is falling, the sky is falling, look at the debt."

Yeah, idiot, look at interest rates they aren't flying through the roof by any means as a matter of fact they're at historic lows. Nobody with any say in the matter is worried about us going bankrupt. And the only reason the Fed is talking about raising them marginally is to control growth. Repeat... To control growth.

Clinton did exactly what they should have done when the economy hit a high point, he consolidated the gains that were made. (The fed should have done a better job at controlling growth, what was going on was not sustainable.)

Bush did exactly what he should have done when the economy hit a low point (which had nothing to do with his policies. The unemployment rate was headed up long before the tax cuts went into effect, Oh and in addition to the dot com bubble he had to deal with the economic fallout from 9/11.), he invested, and now we're right around 4% growth, perfect, sustainable growth. And it appears with the talk of raising rates that Alan Greenspan has learned from his previous mistake.

If it weren't for those tax cuts you might as well throw me and the other 46 people my company has hired this year out on our asses.”

“Fritz - The Rasmussen Reports has a margin of error of ± 3%, so 1% is statistically meaningless. The latest CBS poll (also with a ± 3% margin of error) puts Kerry ahead 49% to 41% among registered voters.

Good times ahead!”

“I am not a poll-watcher but in ten minutes of searching online polls conducted over the last few months the one thing that seems clear is this: there is not now, nor has there been for any signiicant period of time, a front-runner in this race.

To state that changes in the economy are a result of an expectation of a Kerry win (is that really what you said?) seems just plain silly.

...

Dang. I just realized I have takend the bait. This whole discussion is the moral equivalent of clicking on a Violin link.

:)”

“the same polls violin is trumpeting had dukakas ahed by 18 points at this time in the cycle, they also had bushI ahead.

keep spinnin, maybe you'll catch a buzz, oh great fiddlemaster...”

“At least Fritz gets it.”

“Just a little slow on the uptake sometimes.

I am so embarrassed....”

“I'm glad that some jobs are finally being created! However, besides the fact that it's nowehre near the level of employment from 3 years ago, there are other factors to consider. 1.) We are at war on two fronts with a volunteer army. How many of those "created" jobs are actually jobs that were being worked by the soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan? Naturally, now that the war is lasting longer, employers will feel the need to temporarily replace those workers serving our country. 2.) The war also creates jobs because the military needs food, ammo, etc. I'm sure haliburton has done some hiring this past year, and that has to account for job increases.

So, the billions of dough that we are pumping into the war are naturally going to create short-term jobs, just like any output of public funds. For example, if trillions of extra dollars were being pumped into education, we wouldn't have any layoff's of school employees, and would probably have many more teachers hired.

So, essentially, Bush is proving that democratic economic ideallism works. When you pump tax dollars into a public entity, jobs are created, both in publ;ic and private sector. Thanks for proving us right George, despite all your efforts!”

“On June 19 we wrote that wage increases had kept pace with inflation in the year to May, and criticized Sen. John F. Kerry for suggesting that wages had fallen behind. We were wrong and Mr. Kerry was right: Hourly wages for non-supervisory workers rose 2.2 percent, while the consumer price index rose 3.1 percent.

© 2004 The Washington Post Company”

“those lousy commies”

“I, for one, am baffled!”

“At least Bush is consistent. He supports thieves from big companies, as well as thieves from small family owned companies.”

“A man is judged by the company he keeps.”

“cbs.marketwatch

The economy, as measured in terms of gross domestic product, has now slowed steadily after a surge of growth in the third quarter of last year. The economy grew 4.1 percent in the final three months of 2003 following a growth rate of 8.2 percent in the third quarter.

The downward revision to GDP was unexpected. Economists had forecast that first-quarter GDP would be unrevised at a 4.4 percent growth rate.

"We had expected a small braking, a minor tap on the pedal, from GDP growth, but not a move down to a lower gear," said Robert Brusca, chief economist at FAO-Economics.
[...]
The latest quarter-to-quarter slowdown reflected weaker exports and a sharp decline in spending on equipment and software.

The downward GDP revisions reflected a wider trade deficit and less consumer spending than previously estimated. Imports subtract from GDP growth.

Meanwhile, inflation was revised higher in the first quarter.

The closely watched personal consumption expenditure price index rose at a 3.2 percent annualized rate in the quarter, up from the 3.0 percent previously estimated.
[...]”

“Consumers' confidence rises as they witness Bush's re-election chances fall? <G>”

“Tilt, that sure has my confidence UP!”

“It's a CLUE, LOL”

“When will Liberals wake up and realized they have been lied to by the Democratic leaders. The claims of a 'Jobless Recovery' were pure fiction. Lies.

History has shown that when economic growth begins the last thing companies do is hire more people. It would be irresponsible to hire new people until overtime and existing capacity are over utilized.

The Democrats gambled that the economic growth would sputter. They invented a non-issue, an imaginary economic phenomena called the 'Jobless Recovery'.

A Jobless recovery is a myth perpetuated by a group of people who think creating fear and false problems is an appropriate form of leadership.”

“If Bush does lose the election at least sKerry will inherit a growing economy so when he puts it back in the toilet through tax hikes he can't blame the previouse administration. It'll all be on Lurch's shoulders.”

“Nigal, I thought the conservatives are touting the, "it's not a time for pessimism" idea!”

“"Nigal, I thought the conservatives are touting the, "it's not a time for pessimism" idea!"

well, yes, there is a great deal to be possitive about when thinking of a sKerry administration. [sarcasm] Then again, I'm not all conservatives. In fact I am disappointed in the conservatives for not fighting back against all the mud being slung at them.”

“I saw Howard Dean on one of the Political shows this weekend. I miss this guy. He is a riot!”

“I guess saying to give the guy a chance should he get elected doesn't register with you, does it? Hell, I gave Bush a chance and kept an open mind. And he didn't disappoint me. Turned out to be the peckerhead that I expected him to be! :)”

“"I guess saying to give the guy a chance should he get elected doesn't register with you, does it?"

How many years have the dumbshats in New England been voting this guy back in? What's his voting record again? He's had like 20 years of chances and he's been the, and I mean THE most leftist voting Senator in Washington. More liberal than Teddy K, Babs Boxer, all of them.

No, he deserves no chances with me.”

“There has not been much liberal rhetoric on the economy lately.

The economy used to be 'THE' topic of discussion among Democrats. The Democrats proclaimed that the economy was why America should vote out President Bush.

I have supported the President's economic policies. The President's leadership has successfully turned the ECONOMY UP!”

“If you hadn't been such a heel, you might've had a future in comedy.”

“Tilted, Your economy is not down. Quit playing the victim.”

“No, you're an equal opportunity shitheel.

Why don't you remind us of what you said when Mapleleaf came online to say that a relative had just been in a serious wreck?”

“Uh.... Economy tilt. Focus, we are talking about the economy.”

“47% set to quit job, poll finds
Almost half of workers are looking, plan to leave; Many feel unappreciated; 34% wouldn't recommend their employer to others
Cbs Market Watch
Originally published July 6, 2004
SAN FRANCISCO - Inspired by an improving job market and tired of years of productivity gains wrought on their backs, almost half of U.S. workers are ready to jump ship at the next opportunity, according to a recent poll.
Forty-seven percent of workers are currently looking for another job or plan to look within the next 12 months, according to the online poll of about 2,600 workers conducted by Web portal Yahoo.

Yahoo's HotJobs, an employment search Web site, did not run the poll to avoid skewing the results toward those already actively seeking work.

"It's been more of an employer's market for the last couple years. A lot of employees have been feeling overextended and under appreciated," said Marc Karasu, vice president of marketing at Yahoo HotJobs.

"Now that we're beginning to see the first glimmers of potentially a reversal in the economy and more hiring starting to pick up, it's logical to take it to the next level. These employees who are feeling oppressed are starting to feel empowered and are starting to look at options and see what's out there," Karasu said.

The Labor Department reported a gain of 112,000 jobs in June. About 1.2 million jobs have been created so far in 2004.

Workers' hankering for a change is a warning sign for employers, Karasu said: "Companies ... don't want to turn around with an improved economy and all of a sudden find their best people have jumped ship."

For some, the poll is simply a safe forum to vent their unhappiness, but the high percentage of workers who said they want to move on is telling.

"You always have disgruntled people that are just perpetually unhappy, but a lot of people have felt locked into their roles because of the economy. Now, more opportunity gives them more flexibility," Karasu said.

Other studies support the notion that workers aren't happy.

A Spherion Employment Solutions study found that employees gave companies a B+ rating for culture and work environment, one of the top aspects of employee retention, and a C- rating for their compensation practices, another key retention driver.

Years of slow wage growth appear to be grating on workers: 49 percent in the Yahoo poll said they were leaving their current job because they felt they could get a better salary elsewhere. Real hourly wages are up just 0.2 percent in the past year.

In another sign that workers are unhappy, 34 percent of workers either weren't sure they would recommend their employer to others or would definitely not do so, according to the poll.

Forty-five percent cited a lack of potential for career growth in their current workplace as a reason for leaving, and 36 percent were in search of a better benefits package.

Among workers who don't intend to leave their jobs, 51 percent said they were staying because of a good benefits package, 46 percent pointed to a flexible work schedule and 43 percent said they had an easy commute.”

“Economy Up?

So's oil again! That price drop lasted a long time, eh? Oh, forgot. Things like energy and food (you know, those things that the average person doesn't have to deal with every day) don't enter into inflation figures either. And that jobs forecast last week wasn't quite what they thought it would be either. Great news here? For some, I guess!”

“1.2 million jobs created in 2004.

How sad.”