Betting on Terrorism

“I wish this were an Onion story, but it’s not: Policy Analysis Market


Pentagon to start futures market for terror attacks
REACTION: Democrats call rading in risk 'grotesque'

Washington -- The Pentagon office that proposed spying electronically on Americans to monitor potential terrorists has a new experiment: An online futures trading market, disclosed by its critics on Monday, in which anonymous speculators would bet on forecasting terrorist attacks, assassinations and coups.

Traders bullish on a biological attack on Israel or bearish on the chances of a North Korean missile strike would have the opportunity to bet on the likelihood of such events on a new Internet site established by the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, known as DARPA. Investors who guess right would win profits.

The Pentagon called its latest idea a new way of predicting future events and part of its search for the "broadest possible set of new ways to prevent terrorist attacks." Two senators who revealed the plan on Monday called it "morally repugnant" and "grotesque." The senators said the program fell under the control of John M. Poindexter, a top national security adviser to President Ronald Reagan and a key figure in the Iran-Contra scandal.

Sen. Byron Dorgan of North Dakota, one of the two Democrats, said the idea seems so preposterous that he had trouble persuading people it is not a hoax.

"Can you imagine if another country set up a betting parlor so that people could go in . . . and bet on the assassination of an American political figure?" Dorgan asked.

After Dorgan and fellow critic Ron Wyden of Oregon lashed out at the idea, the Pentagon sought to downplay the importance of a program for which the administration has sought $8 million through 2005. It also altered the Web site so that potential events to be considered by the market that were visible earlier on the day at the home page (www.policyanalysismarket.org) could no longer be seen.

But by that time, Republican officials in the Senate were privately shaking their heads over the planned trading and one top aide said he hoped the Pentagon had a good explanation for it.

Full Story”

“Just think. If there were another major attack against us, we could see footage of Palestinians celebrating along with jubilant traders.

Completely bizarre.”

“Yeah, I read that on Drudge. It doesn't make sense to me. Is it just the Pentagon trying to make up for holes in their intelligence capabilities?”

“I heard this on the radio this morning and thought that surely it was some sort of sick joke.

The people who dreamed this up need to be shot.”

“I think they are counting on dumb terrorists to place heavy bets on dates and events when they are planning to do stuff. If statistically speaking, August 31 was bet on heavily, then it may indicate something is "up."
You people need to start thinking outside the box! We will strike out at terrorists using any means. Its a dirty business.”

“I think the basic flaw, limpy, is to assume there are any "dumb terrorists".

As sad and as tragic as 9/11 was, it was a logistical feat.”

“Who is Limpy channeling today?”

“So now we're going to target gamblers?

Bill Bennett better keep a low profile....”

“Poindexter again? They better can that piece of crap before he does more damage.”

“That's what you get when you put a criminal in a high position with little accountability.

BTW - The Pentagon dropped this one already. skynews.

I guess they heard about this thread.”

“They knew the jig was up! LOL”

“WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The Department of Homeland Security is warning that Islamic extremists might be plotting suicide airliner hijackings to be carried out before the end of the summer, with possible targets including sites in Britain, Italy, Australia or the eastern United States.

"As of mid-June, Islamic extremists may have been planning suicide hijackings to be executed by the end of Summer 2003," according to the document obtained Tuesday by CNN.

"The plan may involve the use of five-man teams, each of which would attempt to seize control of a commercial aircraft either shortly after takeoff or shortly before landing at a chosen airport."

Such a plan would preclude the need for hijackers to take flight training, the document says.

The one-page warning, sent to U.S. airlines and others Saturday, contains words of warning and skepticism, saying some of the intelligence the government has received raises "questions about the viability of the plot."

Homeland Security sources said the credibility of the information is still being evaluated. One government official termed it "dubious."

..................................Bet on it, Bush needs a new diversion from his negative media exposure. Just trot out another bogus warning.”

“Bet on more bogus terror alerts every time Bush needs help. Read: re-election time.”

“What i want to know is why aren't the cockpit doors secured with no expense spared and marshalls all over the place on these flights. Please don't say cost is a reason because common sense tells me that spending money on this is one the highest priority items I can possibly think of in these times...”

“And learn from El Al airlines. Ferchissakes, they know how to do this!”

“BTW, ditto to Chili's posts above...”

“Treebeard, I assume you know this, but the marshals are not in a uniform on these flights, so they may be there and you don't know it. We don't want everyone to know who the marshals are on the flights, that way potential terrorists may have doubts about a hijack given the fact that they don't know whether or not a marshal is on board.
Also, the bill to allow pilots to arm themselves was nearing passage last I heard a couple of months ago.
I second the El Al comment.”

“I heard this story reported on the boob tube 3 or 4 times this afternoon and evening and John M. Poindexter wasn't mentioned once. Hmmmmm.


The armed pilot legislation was passed a few months ago and I think they began training almost immediately. The first ones are probably already flying.”

“You are right and I am aware of the anonymity of the marshalls. However, read this disturbing bit of news...

Pulled

They are pulling them from the flights that carry the most fuel. And I am sure I need not remind you that the burning fuel is what brought the Trade Centers down. Also, we are talking major national security here and look at the reasons these a$$holes give for pulling them...”

“Jeeze. Talk about plain stupid.”

“V-man. No matter what words you can use, it just can't say enough about HOW stupid this is. But, then look at the article at the beginning of your thread here. That says a lot about stupidity and I am sure the terrorist mind is elated at the thought that if we think this way over here, maybe we didn't learn as much from 9/11 as we say we did...”

“The people running this country, and the TSA, are a bunch of cheap chisellers.”

“This is just too damn bizzar to comprehend. This dipshat actually thought it would fly? Sheesh!”

“I can only imagine how hard the terrorists are laughing at us. First for coming up with the stupid idea in the first place, and second, to let Poindexter keep his job. I guess this proves America really is full of morons.”

“Who is the genius that put Poindexter in his position of authority? Oh, yeah, that would be GW. I guess Poindexter will get another chance to tell us a little white lie.”

“It is hard to believe that we have come to this.

But, DARPA is one of those edge type organizations in government. If you remove the moral issues involved with this, it is kind of a neat idea. People who would put up their own money would probably research security weaknesses and political trends.

Also, group ideas seem to simmer a bit below the surface before they become obvious. I think that it is good that the government it trying to capture this underground sentiment.

However, I'm not sure the British would appreciate a payoff to people hoping that Blair gets assassinated. So, dudes, we can't do this.”

“Sorry, RL. I think this would tend to encourage terrorism rather than help fight it...”

“Well, tree, you're right about the air marshals. I hadn't heard about that. What a ridiculous reason. If intl and xcountry flights are chopped, doesn't that knock out 99.99% of the flights? I sure wouldn't advertise the cuts either.”

“Sometimes the power of a media story, tied in with a little backlash, can move mountains. Well, these idiots were forced to see to reason here. I still give these people no credit because they were forced into thinking this way when any moron (even the trolls) could see that this was ludicrous, at best...

http://msnbc.com/news/945774.asp?0cv=CA01>flip flop”

“As long as the hijackers stay off the Southwest flights, I'll sleep better at night. Yeah, I'm one of those cheapos that fly SW.”

“I had images of folks betting on all kinds of things including the demise of some folks in our own government--I would think that might shake somebody up if the situation were reversed.”

“Did you know that 5 in 1 people are dyslexic?”

“yes and many of those dyslexic people are agnostics. They lie awake at night pondering the existence of dog.”

“As Ramadan fast approaches, one might speculate that being in Iraq, Europe, DC & NYC might become a bit more hazardous, no?”

“Yo genius, the 15th was the first day of Ramadan.

Beside, it's a fasting religious observation. They're all to tired to make bombs, fly planes, hack people's heads off...”

“Soooooo, you're not bettin', Toes?”

“I'd put more weight on the Bush administration orchestrating some shady activity prior to the election than terrorist attacks during Ramadan”

“Fasters get to eat and drink from Sunset to Sunrise - energy doesn't get sapped until later in the day.”

“Ramaden started last Friday?????? LMAO! I can't remember any Holiday besides xmas and halloween. Well.....usually I remember those the day before.

Mohammed liberated Mecca during Ramadan, no?”

“I like Ramen

Liberated the residents of Mecca from their heads, no doubt.”

“I don't like insinuations about NY or any other place being attacked by terrorism.”

“You live in NYC?

My local news insinuates it almost every day, especially Fox.”

“Fear must be maintained or the empire is doomed.........FOX”

“Yes, I live in NY. I see you live in DC.

Aren't you tired of the insinuations?

Turn off Fox News. Turn on NPR.”

“Good idea, T T”

“BM no.

Muhammad captured Mecca in January 630 without a fight.”

“Fear must be maintained or the empire is doomed.........FOX”
MarkO
11:59:32 AM
10/20/04

Isn't that Star Trek with the Bearded Spock?

Terror - Yes, I don't watch news much anymore.

HPM - Muhammed kicked someones butt during Ramadan, dammit! And I think some fundementalists believe there is a "special" place in paradise if you sacrifice yourself during ramadan.”

“That was the battle of Badhr.”

“I always forget that Ramadan moves throughout the year because of the lunar calendar.

Yes Mecca was taken during Ramadan but there wasn't a battle.”

“Maybe he attacked at midday when everyone was hungry? No battle but he must have slaughtered everyone, yes????”