Dean in the Lead

“I'm no Dean fan, but just thought I'd throw out the fact that he currently leads in the race that really matters: Delegate Count.

Dean had 113. Kerry has 94.

Also, if Clark and Lieberman gave their support to Edwards, that third bloc of delegates would have about as many as the front runners.”

“and......if Liber and Edwards threw there support behind Clark.....



As I said before, Clarkies were hoping for a third place or better finish. This is just getting started. Kerry and the other NE Dems will have troubles in the south, were Clark will be strong. Edwards finishing third after his strong placement in Iowa is cause for concern. If Edwards finishes anywhere lower than first in SC, you could almost puyt a fork in him.”

“Sure thing Q, but Clark is toast.

If you look at the tracking polls for Clark, he dropped from the 20s to his finish in the neighborhood of 13%. Edwards moved up from almost nothing to almost 13%.

There is room in this race for a moderate, especially a Southerner. Unfortunately, there are two now splitting the vote. One needs to drop out or it will be Kerry or Dean. Clark should drop out of the race.”

“Kerry and Edwards are the real horses in this race, IMHO. This would also make a great ticket. The mystery is to whom the others will throw their support.”

“Clark's number are real strong in the south and west. Granted it's early and anything can happen. Kerry will not finish strong in the south. The problem is that a Dem has never won the election without winning the south. There are only two "southern" boys left, Clark and Edwards. The problem with these two is that Edwards will have a lot of explaining to do about is lack of experinace and claims from people in his home state that his using them to gain the Presidency will be a sore spot. Clark is not a politician and will have trouble raising money. Kerry has too close of ties to Teddy to take the south, and Dean's number are dropping real fast. Geppie and his supporters are a wild card because he hold union support.

This thing is just getting started. NH is not the end all, be all. If that was the case, we'd have President Buchanan, instead of Bush.”

“Edwards has 5 years of experience in the U.S. Senate. That's enough.

People generally like it when the president comes from their state. And the presidency brings greater influence for the home state. This might be a problem if he wanted to run for Senate again, but not in the presidential race.

I like Clark, but he's done.”

“Here's a litle food for thought, maybe someone here can confirm.

a quote from one of the many sites I haunt re - the end of Clark:

"

Yeah... It's pretty much over.

No candidate in the history of the modern campaign has
ever won Iowa and New Hampshire and not won the
nomination.

Well, that's okay -- I like Kerry too. A fellow vet!"

Looking for confirmation, anyone?”

“It would be far better for Clark to throw his support behind Edwards. There's only one of the two that is the slightest bit electable come November - and it's not the General”

“I like the general, but he doesn't exactly exude charisma.

I like Kerry's new tag line:

"We're coming; you're going; don't let the door hit you on the way out!"”

“Did I hear right this morning? Clark was in third and Edwards in fourth?”

“yep - v close though Tara - nothing between them really - and they're heading south.”

“Drop out after a primary and a caucus in two relatively sparsely populated states? I understand the importance of momentum and all that but let’s see what happens next Tuesday. I’m surprised Joe Lieberman hasn’t dropped out yet, but Clark made a pretty good showing given his late start.”

“Howard Dean: 113
Sen. John F. Kerry: 94
Sen. John Edwards: 36
Wesley Clark: 30
Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman: 25
Rep. Richard A. Gephardt: 7
Al Sharpton: 4
Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich: 2



Can someone explain how Dean is in the lead after Kerry had two first place showings. I'm confused.”

“Me too!”

“It would do more harm than good for Wes to throw his support behind Edwards. Rmemeber, Dennis gave Edwards a one time endorsement in Iowa, and true to form, Edwards did poorly (for him) in NH. Seeing as though Edwards came up with a "suprising upset" in Iowa, his finish in NH is not encouraging. If he finishes anywhere but first in his "gimme state", the writing will be on the wall for him. Wes has the most money this side of Dean, so don't y'all be looking for Wes to throw it in anytime soon. Unlike all the others, the season has just begun for us!

Seven States in Seven days will be one hell of a ride, you watch. If Wes could take a state like say, Michigan and Washington St, and that alnoe would put a huge cramp in everyones style!”

“WOW! Just read that Kerry had to pull 6 million outta his house (HIS HOUSE!?!?!) in order to help pay for his run and most of it is already gone. Kerry, Dean AND Edwards all over spent there budgets in Iowa and are now spending more than they are talking in. At this rate, Kerry will be broke before you know it, with Edwards not far behind. Wes has enough in his War Chest to go the full 50 states.

I also just read that Wes has done VERY well here in the polls in Michihgan, which will be a big state for him to take.

GO WES, GO!!”

“Dean has many superdelegates: congressmen, senators, etc... who are pledged to him and can vote as they like. That is why Dean is leading the delegate count.”

“Laqtis - you honestly think Wes has a hope in hell of beating Bush?”

“Thanks bison.”

“In a heart beat, ynami, in a heart beat. Kerry's actions when he came home for the war is what costed him the VP nod with Gore. They'll be a lot of explaining to do about that. Dean, well all you have to do is get him fired up and he's his own worst enemy. Clark has more "worldly" experiance than anyone running. He's already delt with most of he overseas peeps he would have to deal with as a President. He has strong leadership, handles himself VERY well in an honorable fashion, uses facts, not BS and interesting and solid policy and values. The advance polls even before he ran showed that he would beat Bush. That alone speaks to his "Electiblity", unlike the others.”

“Any of the top four democrats will stand a good chance against Bush.”

“Heck - Al Sharpton could probably beat him.”

“LOL!!!!”

“Al Sharpton only beat Bush by a couple hundred votes in NH, IN THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY...

As to electability I think Edwards and Clark definitely have the best chance to beat Bush. Edwards problem is that he looks young (although he is 50) and I think his energy actually plays against him by making him seem younger.

Clark needs to figure out a message and stick to it. He seems to flip flop alot, or have to constantly restate things, leaving whatever message he has very muddled.”

“Reason that is, bison, is that he hasn't been in the race as long as the others and doen't get as much play as them. His message is there. One thing that I can see tripping Clark up is that he is very reluctant to rip up his opponents, or otherwise, fight dirty. It's not in his nature, but that could work in his favor.”

“Clarke seems to make quite a few mistakes. His military record, while impressive - is shrouded in doubt over how he was removed from command in Bosnia, after ordering British troops to open fire on the Russians as Pristina airport. I think he has so much that will fall apart when put under serious examination as a presidential candidate.

The only guy who really can win is Edwards. A great speaker, thinks quickly on his feet, is a southern Democrat, appeals to the left yet doesn't scare the right of the party.
He's ya man. All he's gotto do now is convince people he's got a chance of winning. Which may well come in SC. He does badly there and it's all over for him, short of being VP on the Kerry ticket.”

“What is it with you Brits and putting extra vowels in all our words?

Clark pissed off his superiors by going over their heads to Albright and Clinton to stop an ethnic cleansing. I think a closer examination of that will make him look pretty good.”

“ynami - those issues has been explained and exposed already. IMHO, after what Yelstin pulled, he's lucky he didn't get a cap put in his ass. That drunken fool almost caused a HUGE problem for his country. What he did was a fool hardy attempt at a power grab. Clark took defensive procautions and that situation got blown way outta proportion. But don't get me wrong, it's not like I support the guy or anything..:)”

“Discovery/Times Channel had a great little run about the Yugo situation. Three hours long and worth every minute! Very insightful!”

“oops - I keep doing that :o)
So how did he do this Vio?”

“BTW - Vi!


I think I found an answer to your question re: Dean and the delegates. From CNN website:

The reason Dean's delegate total tops Kerry's is that it includes the endorsements of elected Democratic leaders and party officials, each of whom can cast a vote at July's Democratic national convention in Boston. These are the so-called "superdelegates," currently numbering 801, a figure that can change before the convention.

Seems pretty fair that these "officals" can still have there hands in the process......:(”

“Dean is interesting because he was considered a moderate Democrat while governor of Vermont. He seems to have pulled much farther to the left to create a base for himself in the primary.

That's a nice calculated, political decision for someone who just "speaks his mind."

If he got the nomination - slim chance in my mind - he'd pull back to the right and run on his moderate record as governor. That would make him more delectable, errr, electable.

BTW, I saw some statistics the other day that put Dean's fundraising at $40 million, Kerry in the upper 20s or 30s, Edwards at 20 million and Clark at 15 million. Someone have a site?”

“ynamiynami - See these:

LA Times

slate

WaPo”

“RL - here's the fox news story about how the money is going.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,109726,00.html

more to come.........”

“Violin - so what you seem to present there was that he was in favor or military intervention in Kosovo - a worthy casue. This is not what has been criticized. The criticism comes from his actions and orders when in the field and his subsequent removal - preportedly after problems in his relations with other NATO member countries.”

“Those who say Kerry can't win in the South, just watch. I think, with his campain style, he will do well. John Kennedy was from Massachusetts, remember? Kerry's anti-Vietnam stance makes him more desirable as a candidate.
Clark being in the race has been a positive, however, he's going to go head to head with Edwards, and that will hurt his chances.
Who will Dean throw his support to? I say it will be Kerry.”

“JFK needed LBJ to get the south. He couldn't win the White House without a soutern boy.”

“I think Jimmy Dean makes a fine breakfast sausage, I bet he'd make a swell President.”

“Oscar Meyer for V.P!”

“RL -

Here's a site that I found to be very helpful. When you look at the numbers, keep in mind that tthese are only good up to Sept last year, however, if you scroll down you'll see what the remaing balance and new activites are. Look for the part where it sez "Candidate Estimates of 2003 4th Quarter Receipts"

Interesting note: Wes has been in the race for only 4 monthes, yet he still has a balance that is right behind Dean. Granted, these number do not reflect activity from the NH spending. Most of that 6 million Kerry took out on his home is gone.

BTW - A little bird told me today that Dean campaing manager is quitting. That could really shake things up!”

“I guess I should include the address, eh?

http://www.tray.com/cgi-win/pml1_sql_PRESIDENTIAL.exe?DoFn=2004”

“Dean Replaces Campaign Leader in Shake Up
BURLINGTON, Vt. (AP) - Democrat Howard Dean shook up his faltering bid for the White House on Wednesday, replacing his campaign manager with a former Washington lobbyist tied to Al Gore. In a further sign of distress, the one-time front-runner implemented cost-cutting measures as he looked ahead...
Full Story”

“I keep hearing that Missouri is the state to watch on Feb 3. It's demographics more closely mirror the rest of the nation, supposedly.

Ynami comes back to the airport at Pristina, time and again. Was there any actual chance of World War III being touched off, or was General Sir Mike Jackson simply being overly dramatic?

BBC News, March 9, 2000

Some characterise this as 'Clark vs the Russians' but it sounds to me like a spat between Clark and Jackson compromised the solidarity of NATO.”

“Zogby numbers

hmmm....”

“The piece I watched on Discovery/Tmes showed how difficult it was to keep everything together and it was common to see everyone get upity . A lot was on the line. It's really too bad that that success was able to be built upon. Truly a shame. Now, we're in it alone and that trust is gone.”