Kerry/Edwards 2004

“I'm voting for the guy who's most likely to get his willy wacked by somebody other than his wife. What good is a president if he can't stir up a little controversy.”

“Our company uses a 40% factor to figure employee cost. I imagine that’s not out of line with many companies. Let’s make the figures easy. A $10/hour employee costs our company $14. We could outsource a $10/hour job to India for about $6/hour. Our company saves about $320/week/employee by outsourcing. That’s $16,640/year/employee.

A small business owner, with 5 employees making $10/hour, would save $83,200/year outsourcing by this example. Kerry is going to give a $83,200//year tax break to every small business? The figures climb outrageously when you figure outsourcing higher paying jobs and businesses with more employees.


Yeah, us conservatives, riiiiiight. Rev, do you have anything to add? Anything intelligent to add? No? OK


Hang in there laqtis. A friend of mine is going through the same thing. Not only is he a full time student, he has a full time job, he just sold his house, he bought a new house, he's getting married, his father is in the hospital... When it comes down, it really comes down hard. Do well. You'll have a life eventually.”

“I'm sorry you can't answer the good Reverend's questions arc. I can tell you haven't read Stiglitz's book, The Roaring Nineties: A New History of the World's Most Prosperous Decade yet. I have a copy I'd be glad to loan you if you promise not to drool on it too much.”

“Sorry for the mix up RL. I was wondering how sKerry would pay for all these things he's promised? I'm no more happy about Bush's runaway spending than anyone else.”

“Arclite,

Outsourcing has never been a big issue for me. I think that there are just some fundamental changes going on in the economy.

However, I think it's not always as simple as a straight up labor cost comparison.

I'll use the auto industry as an example. Most of the auto companies use "just in time" manufacturing processes. So, the bumpers will be delivered just as they are needed. The company saves warehousing costs. It is also more able to respond immediately to changes in the marketplace.

This means that there is an advantage to having your parts supplier near your assembly plant, etc.

Education/Training costs, currency valuation and political stability also come into play.

So, the key is creating an America that is stable, respected and well-educated. We have to reduce health care costs from 14% of GDP down to European levels of 6% to 8% of GDP.

Taxation is just part of the mix.”

“BTW, Kerry now leads Bush by 7 points in the latest Michigan EPIC/MRA poll. Kerry gets 49%. Bush gets 42%. In the July poll, Kerry had a three point lead. 3% in both polls go to Nader.

Michigan: Swinging for Kerry.”

“I'll keep that in mind violin. Even though you're off subject (again). Here's an interesting thought for you:

Excerpted from Who Predicted the Bubble? Who Predicted the Crash in The Independent Review a journal of political economy (Volume IX, Number 1, Summer 2004):


“Responsible economists and economic analysts should have been warning the public about the prospects of a market crash and its implications for both the economy as a whole and their personal fortunes. However, few economists were issuing such warnings.”

Dean Baker, Dangerous Minds? The Track Record of Economic and Financial Analysts.


Dean Baker did issue warnings and,… “In the aftermath of the crash, he made the following observations:

1. It should have been very simple for any competent analyst to recognize the bubble as the ratio of stock prices to corporate earnings hit levels that clearly were not sustainable in the late nineties…The failure to recognize the bubble and warn of its consequences stems in part from a misunderstanding of the stock market and its role in the economy…

2. While there were some economic analysts who did warn of the market bubble, their views were almost completely excluded from the media…

3. Due to their failure to recognize the stock market bubble, official forecasters, like the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Social Security Administration (SSA), made projections that were implausible on their face…

4. Most managers of large investment funds, including public and private pensions, and university and foundation endowments, failed to see the bubble and its inevitable collapse…”


Well gosh. If Clinton and his economic advisors didn’t see the crash coming, and made budget surplus projections based on faulty info, how in the world can Kerry (and other morons) blame G.W. Bush for the economic downturn?

I'll bet that you predicted the crash, violin. It's just that the papers didn't pick up on your story, right?


Undoubtedly RL. I agree with most of what you have said, but you are off point. My entire discussion has tried to focus around the staemnts that Kerry has been making about providing tax relief to keep jobs from going overseas. I ask again, WHAT TAX RELIEF?”

“Actually arclite, I got out of stocks entirely late in 1999. I missed some of the bubble but missed the crash too.

:p”

“This campaigns' theme:

"It's the war, stupid."

Ferget mowing down the sequoyas, sending jobs overseas, tax relief, etc.

Until we win this war, everything else can wait...”

“Oh yeah arc - If you read the book, you'll get some idea how us morons can blame Bush for the severity and duration of the economic downturn. Try to inform yourself, it won't hurt.”

“"Actually arclite, I got out of stocks entirely late in 1999. I missed some of the bubble but missed the crash too."

Rev


Got out of the market? So, you're a conservative, Rev.

I am just an ignorant fool compared to you, Rev. And you have also read read the article that I refer too as well, haven't you? Gosh, you are one incredibly informed guy. Is that why you are always right?”

“Don't be so hard on yourself buddy.

No I didn't read the Independent Review propaganda piece arc - I don't subscribe to that rag. I'd be happy to read it if you'll post it though.”

“I’d have to type the whole thing, Rev. Sorry, I don’t seem to have as much time to get online as you do. So, you’ve had a subscription before and found it to be propaganda? Funny, I know other “well informed” people who would disagree with your profound insight.

You don’t mind if I’m a little skeptical, Rev, because the last book that you recommended I “inform myself” with, What Liberal Media, was a joke. I showed that on a discussion thread then, and I still have my notes if you’re interested in defending that position again.

As I remember you didn’t bother to inform yourself with the reading that I recommended then either.

OSMOSIS! That’s your secret!!! You remain better informed than we are by simply breathing the air. You must be a legend in your own mind.

You continue to avoid discussion Kerry’s promise for tax incentives. I’m so disappointed. I anticipate (drooling) your informed insight on this issue.”

“I can tell you that there was plenty talk about a bubble in the media before the bubble burst arc, so Dean Baker starts from a pretty shaky premise. The then MIT economist, Paul Krugman, wrote a book, published in May 199 called The Return of Depression Economics.

Here is a bit of an interview he gave in July 1999 on CNNfn:

DEFTERIOS: Let’s talk a little bit about the momentum building, in fact, for this theme. You’ve put it out and a book here, but there are a number of economists talk about consumer spending and how people are borrowing a great deal. They’re enjoying this wealth in the stock market, but it’s tied to basically one horse right now. Is that your primary concern?

KRUGMAN: Yes. I mean, of course, consumer spending goes up and down, and we know that, but if you’d asked me or practically anybody two or three years ago, we would have said, oh, you know, whatever happens, in Greenspan we trust. The Fed can take care of things. And although the sky hasn’t fall on us just yet, the lesson the last couple years have not been that easy. You look at problems of other countries and you realize we’re not as much in control of this thing as we thought we were.

DEFTERIOS: That raises an interesting point. You’re right there, but we have thrown everything at the stock market in the last two years. I mean, Long Term Capital Management tied in with Russia, the crisis in Thailand leading to a complete sell-off in south Asia and in Japan. Really what else could go wrong here that could prompt this erosion in consumer spending in the United States?

KRUGMAN: Well, I think a lot of people, when they look at the stock market, find a little bit hard, despite all of the good news we’ve got about the economy, find it a little bit hard to understand why it’s as high as it is. That raises the question whether it’s a bit lie Wile E. Coyote in one of the old Road Runner cartoons. He’s walked about 10 feet off the edge of the ledge, hasn’t looked down yet, and really anything that makes people look down really is you that, hey, we’ve got a good economy, but it’s not that good, could cause a fall in stock prices. And that—the trouble is that we don’t have a lot of room to fight the effects of that, if it does happen.

DEFTERIOS: OK. Let’s get into this little bit. What would you do differently now with this economy? Would you try to basically discourage consumers from mounting this debt they’ve built up over the last two years? Retail sales that we’ve seen for the last six months have been extraordinary based on fact that they’re looking at their 401(k) primarily and seeing great deal of wealth being created. That’s a dangerous trend, in your view?

KRUGMAN: Yes. I mean, if you look at the situation not too long ago, you would say, OK, stock prices are up, but there isn’t a lot of debt being built up. If you looked at us even a year ago, we didn’t look much like, say, Japan in late 1980s when they had a booming stock market. We didn’t have the build-up of vulnerability. We didn’t have the consumer debts. We didn’t have the leveraging up. Now, we’re startling to see it. Now, at this point it’s still not that bad. At this point we could probably handle a fall back in stock prices without anything very serious, but the longer this goes on, the worst it gets. And it would be nice to pop the bubble before it gets too dangerous.”

“I recommended “What Liberal Media”? I think you’re mistaken.”

“Wasn't it Phead that suggested reading that book?

I can't remember too well, but I do remember the two of you avng a discussion about a book, arc.

Sounds like your pal has a bunch on his plate. I hope his father is well and comes through what ever challenges he has in a good state. Thanks for the words of encouragement, BTW. It's been a real cool summer and I wish that I had not f----'d up and did this earlier in my life, but I've learned.

Speaking of school, Poli Sci has had a real monsterous effect on me. I'm really thinking of getting more involved in school in that area of study. That and ancient history have made me drunk with knowledge and I'm addicted to those subjects!”

“Learning is addictive laqtis. WATCH IT! Both Phaedrus and violin recommended the book. Sorry Reverend, I must have mistaken you for someone else.


Reverend, you will probably ignore, or rationalize, any information that challenges your dogma. But if anyone else is interested:


“Predictably, the risks to savings are the greatest just when they appear to be the smallest. By suppressing crisis, the modern financial welfare state has inadvertently promoted speculation. Never before has a boom ended except in crisis…”

The Trouble with Prosperity by James Grant (May 1996):


“We fully expect a decline in securities prices and the almighty dollar over the next years… There is no new paradigm. Economic sins have consequences. Hopefully, perhaps even economists will learn that inflation is measured by the growth in money and credit rather than in an idiotic index of consumer prices. They might even learn that growth achieved with smoke and mirrors ultimately leads to ruin.
Is the incredible rise in securities prices since 1995 a reflection of real value created or is it merely a bubble? Is this really a second Industrial Revolution that changes our very basic economic assumptions or is it not? Is it a “new paradigm”? A world of fast growth, record unemployment and no apparent inflation? Have economic laws been suspended? And if not, how could so many people be so wrong?
Let there be no doubt, that what we are witnessing is, indeed history’s greatest financial bubble. The indescribable financial excesses, the massive increase in debt, the monstrous use of leverage upon leverage, the collapse in private savings, the incredulous current account deficits, and the ballooning central bank assets all describe the very severe financial imbalances which no amount of statistical revision nor hype from CNBC can erase.
The cause is not the fault of capitalism as it has been suggested, but an excessive amount of money and credit created by central banks. Yet, this seems to escape the understanding of those who will, in one day, convene congressional hearings to det4rmine what caused this destruction. The culprit is, as it always has been, the same organization, which professes interest in bringing about price stability and low inflation: The Federal Reserve Bank and its policies of money market intervention, credit creation and loose money.”

Tony Deden (Sage Capital Management)


“It is but a question of time until North America and Europe also reach the dead end of an economy built on fiat money. At that point, however, there will be nobody to extend the life span of this shallow game through further credits and further inflation. Either the western economies will then be under total government control, as it has already been the case in German National Socialism, or we are expecting a hyperinflation. It may take some more years or even decades until we reach this point of time. It can be further delayed through a currency union between Dollar and Euro (and Yen?). But it is and remains a dead end street, at the end of which there is either socialism or hyperinflation. Only radical free-market reforms--- in Rothbard’s words: return to a commodity money such as gold on a free currency market and a complete ban of government from monetary affairs—lead us out of this.

Economist Jorg G. Hulsmann (1999)



Gee it sounds as if at least three analysts agree on this issue. The bubble was bursting before GW even took office. I must be so gullible because this sounds like analysis, not propaganda.

Why does this article criticize the central banks and Greenspan’s loose monetary policy as the major contributing factors to the crash? The central banks are hated by “left-wingers”. Wasn’t the Federal Reserve Bank under the control of Alan Greenspan? Isn’t he a Republican? Do you suppose that GW Bush told Greenspan to wreck the economy for political purposes? No wait…that doesn’t work. Yo Reverend, why do you suppose that they included “left-wing” propaganda mixed in with the “right-wing” propaganda? Usually propaganda is so one-sided.

After reading these economic analyses I can’t quite grasp how you blame the stock market crash on GW, Reverend. Maybe you have a better understanding of economics than they do from your years of study and research. I eagerly await your informed insight.

How do you suppose this propaganda compares to the Stiglitz propaganda that violin suggested I inform myself with? I’m sure that you can enlighten us about these economic issues so that we can all be as informed as you.”

“Arclite gets all confused about who he's talking to. It's just another part of the psychosis.”

“Some folks (especially the ones who insist that I am a ”conservative”) may wonder why I enjoy teasing “liberals” so much. My experience has been this:

I have a friend who is socialist “liberal”. I gave him Ayn Rand’s The Fountainhead (one of my favorite books). This is recognized as a classic of literature. He couldn’t bring himself to read more than about the first fifty pages he said because, “I found the philosophy to be disgusting.” I suggested the book Bias to this same individual. He wouldn’t read it.

I have another friend who is socialist “liberal”. I showed him my Foreign Affairs magazine. Just like the good Reverend here, he commented, “Isn’t that right-wing propaganda?” Anyone who has read the magazine knows that it expresses viewpoints from all over the political spectrum. He wouldn’t bother to read it because it had “conservative” viewpoints.

These two socialist “liberal” friends were talking one day. One of them mentioned an article about government that he was in the middle of reading. He had a profound revelation while reading the article and was explaining that to the other guy. Before he finished his sentence the other guy responded (in awe), “There are good points on both sides of the issue.” This exchange reminded me of some drug induced philosophical college discussions about the meaning of life. This was such a profound revelation to these guys that they just stood there in thought, while the first guy quietly repeated, “There are good points on both sides of the issue.”

A professed “liberal” at our office makes a point of being well read. When I told him that he should read Bias, he responded that he was too busy to read the book. Two days later, this guy started reading a new book. It was Molly Ivans new book. This is typical of his reading material. He won’t read anything that doesn’t agree with his dogma.

A “liberal” lesbian, here at work, barely acknowledges my presence. Almost every day she is engaged with friendly chatter with the female receptionists. Another “liberal” lesbian, here at work, is in charge of our diversity program. While being a very nice person to work with, she always looks at me as if I have three eyes. She makes sure that everyone understands the importance of thinking alike when it comes to acceptance of homosexuals.

We have some religious “right” folks here at work. A few have let me know that they will pray for my soul (because I do not believe as they do) and leave it at that. Most of the “liberals” I know fanatically try to convince me of the moral superiority of their position, how “conservatives” are evil incarnate, and then shun me when I question their beliefs.

My wife is a registered Democrat. She says that she doesn’t want to discuss politics with me. While watching the news, I stay silent while she feels free to vehemently express her political views towards whatever stupid Republicans happen to be in office. I have found that what she really means is that she wants to be free to tell me her views, but she doesn’t want me to challenge them.

Bernard Goldberg, in his book Bias, describes a woman in NYC who said, “But I don’t know a single person who voted for Nixon.” After Nixon won 49 of 50 states in a landslide win.

I find that mentality typical of many people. They only hang with others who have similar views. But the word liberal means open-minded. Hypocrisy grates me like no other dysfunction. And so I get a bigger kick out of teasing “liberals” than I do “conservatives”.”

“Arc - I've searched the threads Clinton and Media Bias and Bias, a CBS Insider Exposes How the Media Distort and I can't see where I recommended "Whir Liberal Media". Perhaps I'm wrong but I can't imagine why I would have recommended a book I never read and have no interest in reading either (Goldberg's book holds nothing for me either).


If you take the time to read Stiglitz's book, you may learn an awful lot about the 90's and the last few years. As an insider (first in the Clinton admin and then at the World Bank), Stiglitz has a unique perspective. He has plenty of criticism for Clinton's team and Washington in general so there's some red meat in there for you. More importantly, it's an opportunity for you to learn from a Nobel Prize winning economist who has a knack for writing to the layman.

That is, unless you're too close minded and incurious to explore it.”

“Violin, I could have sworn you recommended that book on a thread, but I don’t remember which one. I’m not a fan of memorization. Well I'm not going back over the all of the bias discussion threads to check, I'll take your word for it. Sorry if I impugned your otherwise totally disreputable character.

I thought Clinton was a good President. You obviously knew that when you started that controversial thread a while back. You just love stirring the pot don’t ya.

Thanks for the Stiglitz suggestion. It’s awfully hard to pass up on a book that you recommend. You really know how to feed my addiction don’t you?

You admit to being too closed minded and incurious to explore What Liberal Media? And Bias? Shame, shame, shame.”

“Hey Arclite, I think I reccomended that you read a few other books on media and culture, since you were (seemingly) ranting on and on about Goldberg as though he were the only one ever to write a book on media.

I might have mentioned What Liberal Media because I found it to be on the level of Goldberg's book from the other side. In our subsequent discussions, you attacked the book (and me) as though I wrote it and agreed with everything written in it, ignoring my position in favor of bashing Alterman.

Other books I suggested were Culture of Fear and Propaganda. I've just finished another that you might enjoy: Manufacturing Consent by Chomsky and Herman. It goes into a good amount of detail about some of the things we agree on, including the marketplace for information.

At any rate, you might try not stereotyping people the way you have been - pretending the every "liberal" believes the same things - It might help you remember who you were having a discussion with.”

“Phaedrus, I didn’t ATTACK you. I disagreed with you and still do. I think that Goldberg’s book presented enough unbiased facts and observations to warrant some further study. I found Alterman to be a complete propagandist. He’s almost as much partisan propagandist as is Paul Krugman.

Phaedrus, my personal observations are not stereotypes. I have met some “liberals” who were very open-minded. Most of them were well-read moderates (meaning that they didn’t strongly affiliate with one party’s dogma and had political opinions that sometimes crossed party lines). In my years of observation, people who call themselves “liberal” have been much more likely to be closed-mind about having their opinions challenged than are “conservatives” that I have encountered. Maybe its because “conservatives” are so used to the “liberal” media challenging their views all the time.

In any case, I really did appreciate your suggesting some books for me to read. What Liberal Media had some good points to make. It was worth my time. Culture of Fear and Propaganda really sounds like an interesting read. You guys stink ya know. My wife is going to kill me because I’m reading so many good books. The movie Good Will Hunting mentions Manufacturing Consent by Chomsky and Herman. If it’s good enough for Will, it’s good enough for me. Thank you for the recommendations, you bigot.”

“Gas costs too much.”

“I'm not gonna say right now who I'm voting for in November, but I can make the statement that I will certinaly not be voting for Kerry/Edwards.”

“You're welcome, liberalphobe.”

“I vote for the combative and insulting arclite. This new guy stinks.”

“Are those guys in orange prisoners they brought in from the county jail to pad the crowd?”

“I thought the bald one with the sunglasses was you, Nigal.
Kerry has been getting some big crowds, huh?”

“I don't know which is worse:

”

“"I thought the bald one with the sunglasses was you, Nigal."

I have a full head of hair dude. I thought maybe they were some of his death row supporters.”

“Maybe it was Dick Cheney.”

“Your head is full of hair?

That explains a lot.”

“"Nigal, by his own admission, is a hair-brain." -Swift Boat Veterans For Bush”

“He did at least come out and admit to lying about being in Cambodia '68. But we don't want to talk about THAT. I still can't belive he's pissing his pants and throwing a childish fit about the Swiftys ads and how he blames it all on Bush. Just can't take his medicine I guess.”

“Another Kerry Flipflop

Sen. John Kerry is blasting President Bush for his plan to withdraw 70,000 troops from South Korea and Germany. But less than three weeks ago the top Democrat said he thought such troop reductions were a good idea, specifically naming Europe and Korea.

"I will have significant, enormous reduction in the level of troops," Kerry told ABC's "This Week" on Aug. 1.

"I think we can significantly change the deployment of troops [in Iraq], not just there but elsewhere in the world. In the Korean peninsula perhaps, in Europe perhaps. There are great possibilities open to us. But this administration has very little imagination."

Addressing a VFW convention on Wednesday, however, Kerry bashed Bush for taking his advice, charging that cutting our forces in Korea "is clearly the wrong signal to send" at this time.

As noted by the Weekly Standard, which unearthed the Aug. 1 Kerry quotes on its Web site Thursday, "Who knows what Sen. Kerry believes? Does Sen. Kerry even know?"”

“John F. Kerry: “To me Vietnam is an old place, an old memory. It is old history, it’s gone, it’s past. The less I have to talk about it, frankly, the happier I am.””

“In everything I've read about Kerry's speech to the VFW, he questioned the timing of the reduction, not the wisdom of reducing numbers.”

“In other news: Mutt has picked up the stratdewd banner and is waving it like a madman.”

“Yep, I've managed to out-Strat Strat!”

“To overextend a metaphor: you saw the banner lying in the dung-heap that is Strat's unemployment, you picked it up and charged the barricades, old worldnetdaily streaming behind you.

What a hero.”

“VOTE FOR ME, violin.

It's got to be a better choice than your vote for McGreevey.”