Poll: Bush's position against Kerry stre ngthens

“the alarm rang in my bedroom about a year ago.”

“Kerry surges ahead in 12 crucial swing states as Bush poll ratings plummet

By Andrew Buncombe in Washington
27 May 2004

George Bush has had a warning shot from the crucial battleground states likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election where his rival John Kerry is surging ahead.

Less than six months from election day, polls suggest that Mr Kerry is leading the President in 12 of the 16 so-called swing states. In some states the lead is slight, but in places such as New Hampshire, which Mr Bush won in 2000, Mr Kerry has a lead of almost 10 per cent.

Though polls offer only a snapshot in time, pollster John Zogby, who made the latest survey, said if the present leads in these 16 states hold true - and Democrats and Republicans hold on to the states each party won easily in 2000 - Mr Kerry will win with a margin of 102 electoral college votes. In 2000, Mr Bush beat Al Gore by 271 to 267.

"I have made a career of taking bungee jumps in my election calls," Mr Zogby wrote in an op-ed article. "Here is my jump for 2004: John Kerry will win the election ... We are unlikely to see any big bumps for either candidate because opinion is so polarised and, I believe, frozen in place.

continued...”

“Where's manuka? Hey stick?”

“Rove strategy: Save all the money until after the democratic convention, and then fill every commercial time slot available with "Kerry kills puppies with his war medals" ads.”

“Well… with indictments likely in the Valerie Plame case likely soon and the FBI interviewing neocons about the Chalabi sting (really happening), all the ads in the world won't help much.”

“Oh what, you'd choose a puppy-murdering medal-throwing waffler over the honorable and honest GWB? Just because of a few mistakes by his staff? Elitist. Partisan. Liberal.”

“"....Elitist. Partisan. Liberal."

You rang?”

“BTW, I think it would be hilarious if the PATRIOT act laws led to indictments in the Chalabi thing. The irony is virtually deep enough to wade in.”

“Butt deep?”

“Next up: Irony freesyle relay!”

“Poll? Bush? Slide?



nevermind!”

“This is great news! We are going to be psyched at the Kerry rally that I'm attending tonight!”

“If you can do a powerpoint projection with a screenshot of this:

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04.html

it should really fire up the crowd.”

“GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

The poll finds Kerry leading Bush in the presidential contest by 49% to 44% among registered voters, and 50% to 44% among likely voters.




With independent Ralph Nader in the race, Kerry leads Bush by 45% to 42% among registered voters, with Nader receiving 7% support. Among likely voters, Kerry leads Bush by 49% to 43%, with Nader garnering 5% support.




Among registered voters, Kerry leads Bush by 20 points in the blue states (won by former Vice President Al Gore in 2000 by a margin of more than 5 percentage points), and trails Bush by just 4 points in the red states (won by Bush in 2000 by a margin of more than 5 percentage points). In the purple states (those won by either Gore or Bush by margins of 5 points or less), Kerry leads by 5 points, 49% to 44%.

With Nader in the race, the margins are less favorable to Kerry in all three groups of states. Kerry leads Bush by 15 points in the blue states, and trails Bush by 6 points in the red states. In the purple states, Kerry's lead is down to 45% to Bush's 43%, with Nader getting 7% support.



”

“That last graphic is George W. Bush’s Approval Ratings.”

“(snip)
All the changes in voter preferences from the May 21-23 poll are within the polls' margins of error. These results suggest that the race remains close....

The poll shows an evenly divided public in evaluating Bush's overall job performance, with 49% who approve and 49% who disapprove.....

For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.....

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. (close)

Balanced reporting.”

“No brain cells were harmed in the cutting and pasting of the previous posts.”

“Uh,.....disclaimer”

“With his track record as a strong closer, this one is really shaping up as a Kerry landslide.

Even more so if McCain joins the ticket.”

“Posted June 08, 2004

State’s economic rebirth may reflect U.S. trend

Bush campaign hopes Wisconsin job growth wins over voters

By Peronet Despeignes
USA Today

SHEBOYGAN — A radio commercial for a car dealership goes: “The economy’s back on track, so act now while it’s still a buyer’s market.” That could be good news for President Bush this fall.

The U.S. economy by many measures is “back on track,” rebounding sharply in 2004 and adding more than 1 million jobs, figures released last week show. Here in Wisconsin, the 2001 recession and the “jobless recovery” of the past two years are a fading memory.

The Bush campaign is counting on the national job-market rebound to counter the political drag of Iraq and other economic conditions, such as rising gas prices. Its best chance may be here: Wisconsin’s recovery has been stronger, longer and more consistent than most of the 17 states considered competitive by Bush and Democrat John Kerry. For that reason, the Badger State will be a key test of Bush’s campaign strategy in the months to come.

“If the economy keeps coming back, Iraq will fade as an issue,” said Kevin Fetterer, 42, a painting contractor.

If the U.S. job market had grown as rapidly as Sheboygan’s, the nation would have recorded a whopping 4 million new jobs by now, rather than 1.2 million.

Bush lost this state to Al Gore in the 2000 election by about 5,700 votes. But with the jobs picture improving, the big question is whether that will soften voters’ other concerns about Iraq, rising gas prices and foreign competition.

“It will be very useful for the president to think of this as a leading indicator of what could happen across the Midwest,” said University of Wisconsin political science professor Rodd Frietag.

The Bush and Kerry campaigns are trying to shape public opinion of the economy. The Kerry campaign emphasizes surging costs for health care, college tuition and gasoline. The Bush campaign argues that the economy is improving, thanks in part to the president’s tax cuts.

Despite the improving economy, local polls show Bush’s approval ratings weighed down by Iraq and lingering economic anxiety. That mirrors the latest national Gallup Poll. While 35 percent of respondents rate the economy as good or excellent, the best results since January, only 41 percent approve of Bush’s handling of the economy.

But University of Wisconsin Survey Center poll director Donald Ferree said one question in April’s Badger Poll gives Bush hope. Asked which candidate would most likely improve the economy, 36 percent said Bush, 30 percent Kerry. That reversed the results from March. “These changes are small, but if the shift is for real, it is in the direction of George Bush,” Ferree said.”

“

President Elect's sixth analysis of the 2004 Electoral College vote pitting President George W. Bush against the all but offical Democratic nominee, John Kerry, shows that if the election were today Bush would be the first popular vote losing president to win a second term.

President Elect predicts that President Bush would win 279 electoral votes and Kerry would win 259 (Down from 286-252 in September).

CHANGES FROM LAST ANALYSIS:

- Iowa from LEANING BUSH to LEANING KERRY
- Michigan from LEANING KERRY to SOLID KERRY
- Missouri from SOLID BUSH to LEANING BUSH

QUICK NOTES:

- All changes in current map are in Kerry's favor.
- For the first time in President Elect 2004 coverage, the Democrats have more solid electoral votes than Bush.

President Elect 2004 Electoral College Analysis (5/28/2004)”

“I see Dubya has all the hardcore hillbilly states locked up.

Bedford Forrest would be proud.”

“I'd say that map looks just about right. Another polling group (which one? I saw it a couple days ago) has the same thing except Ohio leaning Kerry and Pennsylvania leaning Bush. This election isn't gonna be far off from 2000.”

“and, again people, this is rating a canidate, Bush, that has a running mate. As I've always said, all polls up to this point are useless until Kerry gets a running mate. Then, I would lean on those polls heavily either way it goes.”

“Ummm... I've heard of Gallup before but who is President Elect 2004? What are their methods?”

“BTW: Zogby now is calling it Kerry 296, Bush 242 (as of yesterday).”

“Who could Kerry Pick that would win him a state though? The only one who really helps (of those who are reported to be seriously considered) is Gephardt who can get him Missouri. Vilsack could secure Iowa but he should win there anyway, Edwards could get him some extra popular vote but won't help him win any states. Evan Bayh would be another interesting choice, but again no states to be gained.”

“We have to keep in mind the power of the incumbancy, the fact that Bush has a lot more money to spend and that spending limits will hurt Kerry more than Bush since he will be the official nominee 5 weeks before Bush. Add to that the Nader vote and Kerry has a tough row to hoe.”

“Bush Rules! And he will rule u!”

“BTW Zogby needs to be put into perspective.

As of yesterday (June 7) Kerry had 1 swing state beyond the margin of error.

As of May 24 Kerry had 5 States beyond the margin of error. His margin has shrunk in all 5 while winning 1 he did not have.

State Votes 5/24 6/7
MI 17 +8.3 +4
MN 10 +9.3 +7.1
NH 4 +9.6 +4.3
PA 21 +8.2 +6.6
WI 10 +8.2 +5.9

Along with the Wisconsin economic lift and more confidence in Bush vs Kerry for the economy in WI (see article above)

and your Zogby poll starts to look weak.”

“Of course, the good people of Wisconsin may feel differently once they here the latest from President Greenspan: Interest Rate Woes Send Stocks Lower”

“here hear”

“BY JAMES TARANTO
Thursday, June 3, 2004 4:00 p.m. EDT

Bush Victory Portents
Five months before the election, President Bush has been taking a pounding in the press, and his poll numbers are suffering. Scott Elliott's ElectionProjections.com--which estimates the probable 2004 results by applying a formula that adjusts each state's 2000 margin based on current national opinion polls--shows Kerry beating Bush, 337 electoral votes to 201, with a popular vote total of 52.87% to Bush's 45.3%. Elliott's formula has Kerry picking up six of 2000's red states--Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire and Ohio--along with every state Gore won.

Of course, late-spring polls don't necessarily predict the election outcome. In 1988, the last time a man named George Bush ran against a Massachusetts liberal, the latter looked a lot stronger than Kerry does today. Gallup helpfully provides trendlines for past elections. In a May 1988 Gallup poll, Michael Dukakis had a 16-point lead--54% to 38%--and Vice President Bush continued to trail until after the Republican Convention in August. Gallup's latest poll this year, conducted May 21-23, shows Kerry with a scant two-point lead, 49% to 47%. Kerry's edge narrows to a single point, 47% to 46%, when Ralph Nader is included. (Nader gets 4%.)

Meanwhile, there are other indications of strength for the incumbent. The Iowa Electronic Markets (click on "get prices") have just begun trading futures on the election outcome. As of yesterday's close, a contract paying $1 in the event of a Republican victory was selling for 55.4 cents. A Democratic contract went for just 44.9 cents.

If the New York Times is to be believed, the Bush-loathing leaders of France and Germany seem to be banking on Bush: "Officials in both countries say that their leaders have come to conclude that Senator John Kerry's campaign to defeat Mr. Bush has not caught fire and that they may have to coexist with Mr. Bush for another four years," the paper reported Monday from Paris. "So the grumbling now is done more quietly, in private. Gloating is not in."

And the Rasmussen polling firm has a fascinating analysis of a survey of 2,000 likely voters. It asked them if they would consider voting for each candidate. Bush does better than Kerry, with 54% saying they'd consider voting for him, vs. 49% for Kerry. Thirty-nine percent say they would "definitely NOT" vote for each candidate. A deeper look at the numbers suggests that Bush's base is more solid than Kerry's--which is to say, more Kerry voters than Bush voters are likely to switch:

Ninety-one percent (91%) of those who would consider voting for Kerry already plan to vote for him. Just 3% of those who would consider Kerry are currently planning to vote for Bush.

However, just 81% of those who would consider voting for Bush are planning to vote for him at this time. Another 10% of these potential supporters are currently planning to vote for Kerry.

Another Rasmussen analysis looks at "swing voters"--the 12% who said they would be willing to consider voting for either candidate. Currently this group breaks down 39% for Kerry, 36% for Bush, 6% other and 20% undecided, but several demographic characteristics bode well for Bush. Swing voters are 56% male and 44% female; 62% are investors; and 37% describe themselves as conservative, vs. just 14% liberal (and 48% moderate).

All this inclines us to think Bush remains a solid favorite for re-election. So does our evaluation of Kerry, who strikes us as pompous and overcautious. Kerry's political approach calls to mind not the idealistic Democrats of the past--FDR, Truman, JFK--so much as Warren Harding, who in his 1921 Inaugural Address famously declared, "We must strive for normalcy to reach stability." True, Harding had won in a landslide and replaced a wartime president of the opposite party--but the war was long over by November 1920.

To be sure, we claim no special talent at political prognostication, and we've certainly been wrong before. Right up until the Iowa caucuses, we thought Howard Dean would be the Democratic nominee. We wrote Kerry off for the same reasons we're inclined to discount his chances now. Our error in that case was a failure of imagination: Never having voted in a Democratic primary, we didn't understand how the mind of a Democratic primary voter works. It turns out, as the exit polls made clear, that the Democrats really, really wanted to beat President Bush, so they chose the "electable" Kerry over the passionate Dean.

By deeming Kerry electable, the Dems made a judgment about how independents and (to a lesser extent) Republicans would view him in November. If Kerry ends up losing, it will show that Democratic primary voters are as bad at anticipating the preferences of other groups as we were when we concluded he was going to lose the nomination.

The Kerry Echo Chamber
One reason Kerry appears to be doing well is that the media are generally friendly--if not to him, at least to the anti-Bush cause. Press bias is a perennial complaint of conservatives and Republicans, but it may well hurt liberals and Democrats more than it helps them, because painting an unrealistically rosy picture of their prospects breeds complacency. Today's New York Times has a wonderful example. The paper reports on an exchange at a "question-and-answer session with reporters" in Tampa, Fla.:

Asked whether politics might have heightened terror alerts last week, Mr. Kerry said that he "wouldn't want to believe that."

But he added: "The problem is for many Americans, however, they can't take it as face value. Which means something has happened about the credibility of this administration in this process. It's a question of the level of confidence Americans have in this administration, and I think that's a serious issue."

So here we have a reporter leveling an unsubstantiated charge against the Bush administration. Kerry responds by (wisely) declining to endorse the accusation directly, instead doing so tacitly by attributing it to "many Americans."

Does Kerry really believe that "many Americans" agree with the anonymous reporter's allegation? Probably he does. But most of the Americans he hears from are no doubt his own supporters--people who are naturally inclined to believe the worst of the president.

What we have here, in other words, is an echo chamber: Kerry, his supporters and journalists all saying what they would like to believe is true. No doubt it's comforting to the president's opponents to pick up the Times and read stuff like this. But if Kerry wants to wage a winning campaign, he'd be better off if he had a way of finding out what is true.

LBJ, War Hero
Several readers wrote to tell us that we should have included Lyndon B. Johnson in our item yesterday listing war-hero presidential nominees. Johnson, a Naval Reservist, received a silver star "for gallantry in action in the vicinity of Port Moresby and Salamaua, New Guinea on June 9, 1942." In addition, both Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford served in the Navy and saw action in the Pacific during World War II.

In fact, every major-party presidential nominee since 1952 has served in the military in some capacity, with the exceptions of Adlai Stevenson, Hubert Humphrey and Bill Clinton. Even Silly Tank Man, the 1988 Democratic candidate, served in the Army, from 1955 through 1957.”

“Don't forget strat - If President Kerry gets more than 55% of the popular vote, I'm coming to Dogpatch and crappin' in your pack.”

“And I'll be eating corn the whole trip!”

“Too bad Ohio didn't have a decent senator or rep. They'd prolly be a shoe-in for VP.”

“ok violin, you gotta deal. and ifhe doesn't, you coem to dogpatch and i get to crap in YOUR pack.”

“Released: June 07, 2004
Kerry's Lead Over Bush Shrinks 44%-42%;
Bush's Job Approval Rating Up Four Points 46%;

President Receives Low Performance Rating On Iraq 39%; Partisan Battle Continues in Red vs. Blue States New Zogby International Poll Reveals



As the investigations into the alleged abuse of Iraqi prisoners by the US military begins, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry’s lead over President George W. Bush drops three points (44%-42%), according to a new Zogby America poll. The poll of 950 likely voters was conducted Wednesday through Saturday (June 2-5, 2004). Overall results have a margin of sampling error of +/-3.2.

Candidate %
6-5-04
5-13-04
4-17-04
4-4-04
3-19-04

John Kerry
44
47
47
47
48

George W. Bush
42
42
44
45
46

Undecided
11
8
7
6
5


When Independent candidate Ralph Nader is added, Kerry and Bush’s percentages are virtually unchanged. Kerry holds on to the same lead, 44% to 42%, with Ralph Nader at 3%.

Candidate %
6-5-04
5-13-04
4-17-04
4-4-04
3-19-04

George W. Bush
42
42
45
46
46

John Kerry
44
47
45
45
46

Ralph Nader
3
3
3
3
3

Undecided
10
7
6
5
5


Support for President Bush’s job performance rose four-points this month to 46%, yet more than half of respondents (54%) still say that they disapprove of his performance. The President’s rise comes nearly one month after he reached his lowest approval point – 42%.

George W. Bush %
6-5-04
5-13-04
4-17-04
4-4-04
3-19-04

Approve
46
42
48
47
46

Disapprove
54
58
53
53
53

Undecided
0
0
1
0
1


Half of those polled feel the country is on the wrong track (50%), while 44% feel the US is on the right track.

US Direction %
6-5-04
5-13-04
4-17-04
4-4-04
3-19-04

Wrong
50
54
49
50
50

Right
44
40
44
43
44

Undecided
6
6
7
8
7


When asked if President Bush "deserves to be re-elected", 43% of likely voters (statistically tied with last month) responded positively, while the majority (53%) say that it is "time for someone new."

George W. Bush %
6-5-04
5-13-04
4-17-04
4-4-04
3-19-04

Re-Elect
43
42
43
44
45

Someone New
53
53
51
51
51

Undecided
5
6
6
5
4


In the Blues States, those that were won by former Vice-President Al Gore in the 2000 presidential election, Kerry receives 53% of support, as compared to Bush with 34%. In the Red States, Bush is favored by 50%, while Kerry receives 35% support. The results here are reflective of a partisan divide.

Candidate %
Blues States %
Red States %

John Kerry
53
35

George W. Bush
34
50

Undecided
9
12


Kerry leads over Bush in the Eastern (52% - 33%), Western (49%-41%) and the Central Great Lakes (43%- 40%) regions, while Bush leads in the South (53%- 35%).

Candidate %
East
South
Central GrLk
West

John Kerry
52
35
43
49

George W. Bush
33
53
40
41


With regard to voter ideology, Kerry is favored over Bush among progressives (77%-14%), liberals (70%-17%), and moderates 58%-24%), while Bush is favored over Kerry among conservatives (74%- 17%).

Candidate %
Progressives
Liberals
Moderates
Conservatives

John Kerry
77
70
58
17

George W. Bush
14
17
24
74


Just under three in five (60%) say they disapprove of Bush’s job performance regarding the war in Iraq – a fifteen-point drop within the last six-months. More than two in five (39%)rate his performance as positive.

George W. Bush %
June 2004%
May 2004%
Dec 2003 %

Approve
39
36
54

Disapprove
60
64
46

Undecided
1
1
1


Respondents remain divided on the value of the war. When asked if the war in Iraq was “worth it”, nearly three in five (56%) expressed their support – up nine percentage points from last month. While two in five (43%) oppose the war.

George W. Bush %
June 2004%
May 2004 %
Dec 2003 %

Worth it
56
47
49

Not worth it
43
50
42

Undecided
1
3
2


More than half of respondents (52%) hold a favorable view of Bush, as compared to 54% who hold a favorable view of Kerry. Kerry is preferred over Bush among men (44%- 41%) and statistically tied with the President at 43% among women. Bush leads over Kerry among married couples (50%-39%), while Kerry leads Bush (55% -29%) among singles.

Nearly one in three (28%) identified jobs and the economy as top issues facing the country, followed by the war in Iraq (21%); the war on terrorism (13%); health care (8%) and education (5%). *There has been no significant change from last month.

Pollster John Zogby: “This has been a good week for the President. Voters like to see their President on the world stage, larger than Washington, DC. The photo ops display a world leader meeting with US allies. With the death of President Reagan, Americans have seen the more compassionate side of George W. Bush. But even with the absence of the bad news from the previous few weeks, the President has not gained in the polls. While it is difficult for Senator Kerry to break through a President on the world stage and a nation in mourning, his numbers have actually gone down. The real movement is among undecideds who numbered only 5% in March and now are 11%. The first jump was due to some Republicans and conservatives leaving the Bush column; the last month has seen some Democrats abandoning Kerry. In this highly charged atmosphere, both candidates will have to get back their base to win.”

Zogby International conducted telephone interviews of a random sampling of 950 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from Wednesday, June 2 through Saturday, June 5. The margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender and presidential voter to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.”

“Cancel That Limo, the Kerry Fundraiser's On Hold


By Matea Gold and Geoff Boucher, Times Staff Writers


The catering had to be canceled, the flowers were donated to a local hospital — and someone had to tell more than 7,000 guests not to show up.

When Sen. John F. Kerry's presidential campaign, out of deference to Ronald Reagan, postponed two gala fundraisers scheduled this week in Los Angeles and New York, the decision turned months of careful planning upside-down.

Now, organizers are rescheduling the events on the fly — a far-from-easy task.

Walt Disney Concert Hall and New York's Radio City Music Hall have to be rebooked or alternative venues found. Contracts with about a dozen vendors in each city have to be renegotiated. And the performers — including Barbra Streisand, Billy Crystal, Willie Nelson, Bette Midler, James Taylor and Robin Williams — have to come to an agreement.

By late Monday, the campaign was already close to finalizing new dates for the concerts in June. And with the exception of some of the performers slated for the New York event, it looked like all the entertainers would be able to participate, aides said.

It was a fast adjustment of two large-scale productions that had been in the works since mid-March, when Rolling Stone magazine publisher Jann S. Wenner and other luminaries agreed to produce the fundraisers. The events are expected to raise millions for Kerry's campaign and the Democratic Party.

Despite the hassle, participants have been understanding about the change, said Lara Bergthold, Kerry's deputy political director who works with the entertainment community.

"Especially in L.A., which is obviously the home of President Reagan, we have had tremendous response from our donors, who understand and appreciate the campaign's response to this," she said.

Political experts said that Kerry had little choice in the matter. Holding red-meat partisan events during a week of memorials honoring Reagan probably would have sparked substantial criticism of the presumed Democratic nominee, many said.

"You can just see the fundraisers tearing their hair out," said Ethan Geto, a Democratic strategist in New York. "But Kerry was virtually obliged to make a gesture like this that was meaningful."

Marge Tabankin, director of Streisand's philanthropic foundation, said there was a consensus among those involved that the concerts needed to be rescheduled.

"There are moments when partisanship needs to be set aside, and this is one of them," Tabankin said.

So on Sunday, more than 20 volunteers crammed into Kerry's West Los Angeles office to call and e-mail close to 2,000 donors expected to attend Monday night's concert downtown. In case anyone still hadn't heard about the change, volunteers were assigned to stand outside Disney Hall on Monday to explain the situation.

But word seemed to have gotten around. Many of Southern California's most wealthy, famous and politically active Democrats were swapping e-mails about the postponement. They canceled limo drivers and switched their dinner reservations from downtown bistros to more familiar Westside favorites.

Meanwhile, in New York, where 5,500 supporters were expected to converge at Radio City Music Hall on Thursday night, donors received apologetic e-mails. The messages included "a special note."

"For those of you who were not able to attend or were on the fence: Now you have more time and I'm asking to you reconsider being involved!" wrote Daniel Stark, a member of the local host committee.

"Please join us to defeat Bush this November with your time and your financial support…. It's the only things we have to get regime change in our country!" Stark added.

Jeff Ayeroff, a music industry veteran and founder of the Rock the Vote program that encourages political involvement by young people, said the mutual attraction between politicians and entertainers — as well as the hefty resources involved — makes it possible to reschedule such events at the last minute.

"The very last component in an event is the magic, but everything before that is strategic and there are machines that make it happen," said Ayeroff, who was planning on attending the Disney concert.

In the end, campaigns have to be flexible and ready to "move on a dime," said Joe DePlasco, a New York public relations consultant.

"In this case, hundreds of thousands of dimes," he said.

So in Los Angeles, trucks loaded with sound and light equipment were halted Sunday morning just before they headed to Disney Hall.

The flower arrangements for Monday's pre-concert dinner were already made, so the campaign donated them to Cedars-Sinai Hospital.

For the most part, relieved organizers said they were able to persuade nearly every vendor to carry their orders over to a new date.

"We're trying to have a 'Groundhog Day' situation," Bergthold said.

But countless details can still slip through the cracks. Until Monday afternoon, for example, Streisand's official website was still promoting her appearance at Disney Hall.

Willie Nelson's fans may have felt even more out of the loop. His site made no mention of his appearance at a Kerry fundraiser. Instead, it noted that the country singer "supports Dennis Kucinich for President."”

“"He's a moron and a tool" Bush 98% Kerry 1%”

“I wish Bush would flip-flop a little more on Iraq instead of repeating his mistakes.”

“Did you miss that UN resolution Aero?

These polls are all wacky right now, as they usually are at this point in the cycle, for instance the Times poll violin pasted has Kerry up by 6 nationally, but has Bush up 2 in Wisconsin. No way in political hell that's the case, unless there's some out of the ordinary political dynamic in Wisconsin that has gone unreported.”

“The UN Resolution, you mean the one Kerry has been endosring as part of his solution to the problem in Iraq? Oh, yeah, that must be the one.... I love how GWB is now following Kerry's blueprint for Iraq.”

“dukakass was up 18 points the summer before the election on bushI.”

“I think it is far more relevant that just a couple of weeks before the primary, all major polls had Kerry getting creamed in Iowa. The smart money is on a strong finisher.”

“Smart money?”

“Smart?

MONEY?”

“L.A. Times Poll Loaded With Dems

The Bush campaign is accusing the Los Angeles Times of loading its latest presidential survey with Democrats in order to show Sen. John Kerry with a 51 percent to 44 percent lead.

"Be very careful in reporting [the] Los Angeles Times poll," Bush strategist Matthew Dowd warned ABC News. "It is a mess."

"Bush is leading independents by three, ahead among Republicans by a larger margin than Kerry is ahead among Dems, and we are down by seven," Dowd said, noting the math doesn't add up.

Calling the distortion "outrageous," he accused the Times of oversampling Democrats "by a margin of 10 to 12 percent."”

“They do alot of surveys in Florida where the locals and felons are allowed their say two or three times.”