Now for Frances???

“

if that forecast bears out, I'll get a direct hit!”

“Hey Nowslimmer - this one could suck buddy!”

“That would not be fair, but isn't it now up to the Carolinas?”

“That's news to me, tango.

Roam Around - It is too early to worry, but I've been packing for the Smokies and more.

Latest NCEP/Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) Forecast Positions

See how you like this one. Click on the link and then click on the image. I tried some other double links to accomplish the same result, but could not get them to work.
Link”

“Hold on to your hats, boys. And stay safe.”

“

much prettier picture!

lol”

“It appears that the projected path of Frances now has that northward bend to it. So it may miss or skirt Florida.

Meanwhile, tango, Tropical Storm Gaston, picked up speed as it spun toward the South Carolina coast. It should hit this morning with lots of rain and posssible tornados.”

“maybe the thing will scooch on around and stay in the ocean!”

“Great, Frances is now aiming this way.”

“Great...I will be in Miami on Saturday night staying until Sunday afternoon, unless Frances has different plans for me. What a Labor Day weekend! Hopefully, it will turn back out to sea, and leave us all alone. I'll be watching this one.”

“They lowered the predicted path today so that now it is headed directly for us, Roam Around.

"IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN INTENSE HURRICANE. ... LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE TRACK A
LITTLE MORE THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THAT
INCLUDES BOTH THE GFS AND THE UK MODELS WHICH PREVIOUSLY BROUGH THE
HURRICANE TO NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS OR SOUTH FLORIDA. THESE MODELS
ARE STILL BRINGING THE HURRICANE VERY CLOSE TO FLORIDA BUT AT A
HIGHER LATITUDE."”

“freaking wonderful

I'm going to Savannah Georgia for the weekend - not only may it be difficult to get home - there may not be anything to come 'home' to!”

“Now it is headed toward Treebait again. Back and forth!!!!

They have a conflict at the US Weather Bureau. The night shift curves the predicted path upward and the day shift sends it back south again. The experts are in disagreement and engaged in battle. If the truth be known, none of them know where Frances is headed.”

“thats probably the most accurate case. they just look where its been and draw a semi straight line.

I'm still hoping for a drmatic gulf stream effect to push it way north or make it do the big curl.”

“the latest update shows it comeing right into my front door.”

“Good luck, roam
Hope it jumps over you like the last one did.”

“me too, but it doesn't look too good for this one. The National Weather disservice does say that it'll be Wed before they can make a true prediction of the expected landfall though.”

“Right at us, hitting about 2 PM on Saturday, according to the day crew at the National Weather service. athey just did a major lowering of the projected path for Friday and Saturday.

Sure hope that the night crew swings it back to sea headed up north. And the closer it gets, the greater have been the differences between the 11 AM - 5 PM forecasts and th4e 1 and 7 AM forecssts. They're playing ping-pong with the prediction.

Now I'm going to have to ransack this place to find all my valuables, put them in a shoebox, load the car and be ready to travel.”

“They haven't lowered it here. Two separate stations show it coming directly to Jacksonville, one shows cape Canaveral. Yeck. On the flipside, I treid explaining evacuation to a 2 year old. I figured she'd understand the "bye bye," but she understood more than I thought. Laurel stated "Take my spider too!" She has a very large banana spider outside her window that she talks to every day. I don't think I'll have that in my car, along with Laurel, 2 of 4 cats, and carcamping stuff and belongings.”

“Hurricane Frances Predicted Path

Here's one.

Here's another.”

“the weather just keep getting more and more catastrophic with every passing year. Mega-droughts, cooler than normal summers and warmer than normal winters in the east. The amount of tornados have risen shortly. We're having more wild fires than ever. What's Going On?”

“those two paths look pretty much the same to me NS.”

“This is status quo.
Our side of Florida is past due for a big one.”

“Ever see a picture of ?

the water vapor sat image is kinda cool.

looks like the first rain bands of Frances are starting to reach Puerto Rico now.”

“oops, sorry - that was sposed to say " Ever see a picture of humidity?”

“
Click to change size.”

“lovely eh?”

“Just peachy.”

“I am worried. I'm packing, but I just don't know where to run.
I tried to get a room at the Airport Hilton Hotel for my daughter and
granddaughter, but they are full. She is stayingin town, so she'll have
to find a shelter. I don't want to leave my car parked in the area,
because I expect all sorts of things to be flying through the air.

Where do I obtain those Government Aid papers for filing
after this hurricane. I might as well start filling them out.”

“I really don't know.
We started getting our paperwork assembled last night.”

“major revision at 11:00 am.

they just can't make a good prediction for at least another day.

Everyone in my office, lifelong Floridians is kinda worried about this one.

check out this satellite image though.”

“If the above image is correct that puts it at my front door.

Keep in mind my subfloor is at 10.5 feet above sea level.”

“yeah, I know HPM, I thought about you as soon as I saw the new image.

Keep in mind that the National Weather Service continues to say that an accurate landfall prediction cannot be made until Wednesday at the earliest.”

“I hope you all stay safe.”

“Keep in mind my subfloor is at 10.5 feet above sea level."
humanpackmule
10:56:39 AM

Dang!
And I thought mine was low.
I got two feet of water inside from my last hurricane.
Hope it misses you guys!”

“Yep. 10.5 and it is a crawlspace foundation.

I'm trying to find out what the average stormsurge is for a cat 3 and 4 now.”

“Crap.
cat 3 storm surge averages at 9-12ft and Cat 4 at 13-18ft.”

“Maybe I am being naive but there is a lot of time left for this storm to change direction.

HPM, how close are you to the coast? How many/what kind of buildings sit between you and the coast?”

“yeah, it could change dramatically and miss me and HPM, but

with those charts being put up its impossible to just sit and wait for an accurate forecast.”

“Sounds like a case of hope for the best, but expect the worse.”

“exactly!


Be Prepared!”

“darn, and i wanted to paint this weekend!
hpm's i would say come inland to my place...but would be very worried about the mix of how treebait got her name, high winds and a huge dead hickory tree looming close to my house.... whew...
i mean, me and chocky getting crushed would be ok, but the hpm family too?...yikes”

“Fritz there is plenty of time for it to change track but you'd better get you crap in order quick and if it shoots the Miami Straight and goes into the Gulf I will be suprised as all hell.

Historicly a storm following the current path with the current conditions either hits the coast dead on or more likely yet slides north up the coast and then lands.”

“Hope you crazy Floridians are spared the brunt of it. Dang, I'm missing out on all of the fun.”

“Wow, this is not good! Pray for a change of direction!”

“yeah, wouldn't be fair for Orlando to get the big one - two punch.

At least all the trees are already down....”

“What's funny is my roof will be fixed tomorrow!”

“well, hmmm, at least the contractors do well from these things.

and FEMA has deep pockets.”