Ivan is coming

“Interesting.
I was told it required a lot more out of new structures in regards to hurricane survivability.”

“They have some arbitrary requirements:

Masonry walls no taller than 30' for example. You can reinforce a block wall to go higher. We have a job under construction in Miami where we had to build stem walls about 5' tall out of concrete. These walls then supported the masonry wall. Because of all the mechanics involved it's actually less stable than a regular masonry wall, but we had to meet the letter of the code. The wall is still safe, but would be stronger without a stem wall.

You HAVE to use light weight insulating concrete on the roof. The stuff is super light and really doesn't help hold the roof down. You can design a steel roof for uplift, just do it.

The most important thing in lateral design (wind or seismic) is the connections. The building materials will give and deform incredible ammounts way beyond what they are intended to do....provided they are connected adequately.

The post office roof you saw blow away during Charley didn't have the connectins of the deck to the roof increased for corner and edge conditions. Where did it fail, at the corner where uplift is 2-4x higher.”

“Home Depot already has lines for plywood sales going. I got two pieces for a big glass door we have - but I'm not going back again - it will be a zoo until Ivan retreats or (finishes attacking.)

Many folks will still be without power as it approaches.

As far as what we have done to deserve this - I've heard some folks on TV have repeated what Pat Robertson said during Floyd a few years back. Unbelievable.”

“Coop, what was it that goofball said? I can't remember.”

“He said that Orlando might (but strongly implied WILL) get a direct hit from a hurricane because the city allowed gay pride banners to be flown and that some of the theme parks had gay pride days.”

“I feel really sorry for everyone on the right coast, and especially Floridians.

Maybe it's the 'dimpled chads?' lol. [Sorry couldn't resist.]”

“Oh, yeah. Moron.”

“earlier it was headed to tampa, then to miami and now to ft myers. i can re-book my airplane tickets at n/c. i have an 18 yo , 21y/o and elderly parents. i would not like to leave them behind if disaster strikes.”

“Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell: The American Taliban!”

“Well lets hope this one weakens.”

“HPM - I misspoke about the masonry. You can't go over 30' without pilasters. The job under construction didn't have room for them, hence the stem wall. The one being designed now does have room for pilasters, which is what it'll get.

Pat Robertson = moron. By that logic the hurricane would skip Orlando and hit Navarre beach.

I really feel for the Tampa area folks. I just saw the revised storm track, not good.”

“I saw Ivan was a cat 5 for much of the day. 160 mph sustained winds, gusts over 200 mph. It has weakened to 150 mph sustained winds, a high end cat 4. This storm is a killer.”

“I sure hope this thing keeps getting pushed east and just brushes the Keys. Not likely to happen, but here's to hopin' and prayin'.”

“wishing all you southerners the best!!!!!”

“I don't think I'm going to bother restocking the fridge until halfway through October. My potted plants and windchimes are all staying down. I definitely need to bomb the yard for mosquitoes though, They're the worst I've ever seen them. You stand still and there's 40 or more on your legs, no exaggerating.”

“We're going to Disney in about 6 weeks and the first day were going to try and get to Ocala and spend the night. My sister in law and brother in law were supposed to book the hotel about 3 weeks ago. They didn't. They called the other night saying rooms were literally disappearing on the screen. They didn't have a clue why. Duh, people don't have houses to live in. Long pause....Oh.”

“I just got my internet back a few minutes ago.

Hopefully Ivan will stay well west of Florida.

Hold on Stovestomper, this one may be yours.”

“Who will save the Chickens”

“http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/H/HURRICANE_IVAN_FLORIDA?SITE=FLDAY

Fla. urges new evacuations as Ivan nears

KEY WEST, Fla. (AP) -- Tourists and residents were told Thursday to evacuate the Florida Keys because the powerful Hurricane Ivan could hit the island chain by Sunday. It had top sustained winds of 160 mph, making it a Category 5 storm, the most severe category of hurricanes.”

“well once again i have changed my vacation plans. we are now flying out on the 18th and returning 10/02. southwest air has been great about changing days with no charge. the stress level is rather high and we all seem a bit on edge. i am going to have one day this week-end to do something for myself.”

“#&%!$ this. I want to move.”

“boy oh boy oh boy...there was a time (long time ago) I wanted to move to FL. Sure glad I got into hiking instead :)

I hope you are all staying safe down there. Remember...I have a place to stay if you need to.”

“Gosh, you guys....this is so unfair to you. I'll be saying many prayers for you and the rest of Florida, hopeing things get back to "normal" quickly.”

“"With Hurricane Ivan approaching even as our work on Hurricane Frances continues, we have extended the relaxed dress code for another week.

That means that, until Monday, September 20, you may continue to wear jeans, tennis shoes, T-shirts and similar attire. Again, if you have outside business meetings, press interviews or internal meetings with outside vendors, please wear business casual or regular business attire as appropriate.

I appreciate everyone’s remaining within the boundaries of common sense in your choice of apparel over the past week. I know that your good judgment will continue until we return to the regular dress code policy on September 20. If you have any questions in the meantime, please speak with your supervisor or contact your unit’s HR representative."

Woo Hoo! Wait a minute, I already dress like that. Damn must be for HQ only.

No, I won't tell you where I work. Can you figure it out?

No helping for anyone who might know!

On a serious note - good luck y'all. This is probably the last one, yes?”

“it is really getting crazy here in the st pete area. lowes, home depot, cox lumber are all out of plywood. people were lining up at 6 am this morning with the lines a blocks long. went down to ace and they were out of tap con screws(?). batteries are gone, basic foods are running low, hopefully they will be able to suppllt over the week-end. i'll be getting more sand bags in the morning to put around the doors and out front.
hey maybe i should go pay a visit to nowslimmer or om.”

“Track has moved a little bit West

Computer models still show it hitting FL hard”

“The Orlando Sentinel
Thursday

ORLANDO, Fla. - (KRT) - Where will Hurricane Ivan come ashore?

Supercomputers in facilities from Florida to Maryland to California have been trying to answer that question for days. Programmed with decades of hurricane history, updated with windspeed and barometric pressure and humidity from dozens of satellites, buoys and airplane-dropped sensors, they whir and process for an hour or more to produce - on Thursday at least - this answer:

Anywhere from Louisiana on the west to Jacksonville on the east. And maybe not there.

Humans at the National Hurricane Center acknowledged that no one can say for sure when or where the storm will hit.

A dozen or more computer models show Ivan following paths to the west and east of Florida, as well as right up the spine of the state. But trying to predict the course of any hurricane five days out is beyond a supercomputer; even three-day forecasts can be hugely wrong, as Hurricane Charley showed last month.

Said hurricane center meteorologist Gene Hafele, "The further you get out into time (before landfall), the more the uncertainty." Two of the biggest factors influencing the possible path of Ivan are a storm heading east through the Rocky Mountains and a high pressure system in the Atlantic known as the Bermuda High, which typically is in place during the summer and early fall months.

If the storm moves the Bermuda High out into the Atlantic or weakens it, Ivan could head right into Florida. If the Bermuda High strengthens or rebounds from the storm, Ivan could go west into the Gulf of Mexico. There is no agreement yet on what will happen, though the computers are "trending" toward the Bermuda High staving off the storm.

"This is the stuff people spend decades and decades trying to understand," said Josh Darr, a meteorologist with Risk Management Solutions in California, a firm that helps insurance companies forecast potential losses in a natural disaster such as a hurricane.

With tropical force winds extending 80 miles from its eye, Ivan was headed north northwest Thursday night. Its top winds were at 160 mph, though it was expected to weaken after crossing Jamaica and, quite possibly, Cuba.

After that, the computers disagree on what happens next.

The reason: forecasting is an inexact science that - while growing in sophistication - cannot take into account the myriad atmospheric factors that eventually determine the course of a storm.

Anything from the temperature of the water to a shifting high or low pressure system to wind shears to a hurricane's forward speed can alter the track and intensity of a storm.

The computer models, most fed with data from hurricanes as far back as 1900, try to consider countless nuances in producing a potential course. That's why they can change several times a day, whenever a new set of programs are run.

Although there are hundreds of hurricane tracking programs available or in development, the National Hurricane Center typically pays most attention to five models. They are called NOGAPS, AVN, BAM, UKMET and GFDL.

On Thursday, their plots showed Ivan could head as far west as Louisiana - or as far east as the open Atlantic.

"It's always better to have several opinions rather than just one," said Pete Dailey, a meteorologist and manager of atmospheric science for AIR Worldwide Corp., a risk-modeling agency in Boston.

Two of the most respected models are NOGAPS, produced by the U.S. Navy, and GFDL, created by a government-funded laboratory at Princeton University and run on National Weather Service supercomputers in Maryland.

Morris Bender, a research meteorologist at Princeton and a developer of the GFDL, said the model solves complex mathematical equations involving fluid dynamics to predict Earth's ever-changing environment.

"It's called a model because it's an approximation of the behavior of the atmosphere," Bender said of the GFDL, which stands for Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and was developed in the 1970s. "You're trying to reproduce what the storm is doing, but much faster. The atmosphere is complicated, and nobody's model is perfect."

The GFDL prediction Thursday: Ivan would make landfall in Florida sometime Tuesday just north of Tampa, Fla.

NOGAPS, which stands for Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System, uses wind, temperature, humidity, barometric pressure and other atmospheric profile data gathered worldwide by satellites, ships at sea, weather buoys, weather balloons, military and commercial aircraft. It's all crunched by a supercomputer in Monterey, Calif.

The NOGAPS prediction: Ivan would make landfall Tuesday somewhere west of Tallahassee, Fla.

"Different models make different assumptions, on how they form clouds, the convective energy in thunderstorms, how radiation is absorbed into the atmosphere. So the models will behave differently," explained Mike Clancy, chief scientist for the Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center.

"We don't understand the exact physics of the atmosphere," he added. That's no surprise to John Williams, a veteran Florida meteorologist and co-author of a book about Florida hurricanes and tropical storms.

"Babies like these," Williams said of Ivan, "have a mind of their own. They do what they want."

---”

“I don't think Nowslimmer has much of a house any more. I'm not certain of his status. We are in Atlantic Beach, part of Jacksonville. Looks like we're kinda in the middle of the different projections. Hopefully it won't be much for us.”

“dont know where its going , but i spent all day today doing coggins tests for people getting out of dodge with their horses (they need this test for transport across state lines). Lots of folks totally drained emotionally...heading out and leaving this weekend.
i still will not have power restored before ivan if he comes this way....

mothuh nachuh....playin hardball again!”

“Hi, Om. When we came out of the Wind Rivers and Charley was the thing, we thought of what it must be like for you guys when you came out. That was then. And it hasn't ended. Just keep om-ing, huh? If you ever want a peaceful visit in CA, we'd love to see you again.”

“But, just as soon as om gets there, you'll have mudslides and an earthquake!!!”

“WHY is this happening? What has changed with our climate, living patterns, pollution, etc., that these hurricanes are this year blasting the same areas over and over???!?

I wish you guys the best. This has got to just totally suck. I mean, I couldn't imagine getting hit by every tornado that might come along....”

“Nature happens. Good and bad. It's just our time here.

Om, I've heard about the flooding down by you. The Santa Fe has reached record breaking flood levels. Are they affecting you?”

“Wow, looks like Jamaica might be fooked. That's a serious storm. Weather dude said it might be tracking west though, so the worst winds may miss the island.”

“I'm with treebait, i wanna move too.”

“Yeah, Fritz, I wasn't going to mention the earthquakes. Or the floods that happen on our road every winter.”

“Missed Jamaica, taking a far more westernly track.
FL TTers finially got a bit of luck. Looks like the panhandle is in trouble, or AL, or MS.
Yikes!
My weekend plans just changed.
Hurricane prep work instead.”

“Stovestomper, my aunt lives in Tallhassee. She's coming here if it heads her way.”

“SS - notice that your link is showing the winds dropping over the next 72 hrs too.”

“thats pretty accurate HPM.”

“It's up to Cat 5 again, hell yeah... 165mph sustained, 200mph gusts...”

“I tell ya, it's pay back for the 2000 election. Ma Nature doesn't like the current environmental policies.”

“With the current prediction, whatever that is worth, my sister is near bullseye in the FL panhandle. Not far from where Opal surge breached Santa Rosa Island.”

“looks as if it is missing me and the vacation is finally on. we are packing the gear today and leaving sat . flying into manchester,nh and heading up to killington and then to lake placid. i can't wait!!!!”

“i just got hot.....power! yay

i want to extend a resounding Om and Namaste to the electrical workers from Alabama, Louisiana, North Carolina and as far away as Oregon..yes, Oregon for working day and night thru terrible weather , and they still have about 1500 customers in my county alone to restore out of hundred thousands. Bless all their bones and if any of you TT'ers know them , family, freinds...please give em a big hug for me.

Treebait, I was heading out to the grocery store, and have to chuckle at your comment to wait until after October....maybe a good idea!..LOL
Yes, the flooding here is now the big problem.. causing some folks to still be out of power...even if you have underground power, if tree roots pull the power lines up when they fall and they are sitting under water...well....
The Santa Fe is indeed flooding as is the Suwannee, expected to crest Mon or Tuesday, then if we get 10 - twelve inches of rain from IVan who knows. The water is about ten feet under the 27 bridge if you are familiar with that, between High Springs and Ft. White....my route home, maybe i will park my car on the high springs side and kayak across to work every day..LOL
my sinkhole is full now and new ones are forming all around gainesville and other locations...

what a planet,

anyone heard from nowslimmer?”

“I'm in this bassturd's gunsight now!
computer models
LA, MS, AL, and west FL, look out!

Damn thing hasn't been making that expected northerly turn.
I expect to be running Tuesday.

If I get hit with a Cat 4 or 5, I will not have a house to come back too.”