Oil economics

“It's all BUSH's fault! LOL”

“"Maybe, but it just shows how difficult it will be to replace oil with something else."

The idea is not to replace oil with any one substance.

Alternative fuels can supplant some percentage of petroleum fuels and curtail some of the use of oil.

Petroleum reserves would last longer.”

“I think oil at a reasonable price has been vital to modern society.   But when reasonably priced oil is a thing of the past..... ?

Conversely, if the price of oil remains reasonable for a time through, say, increased production and renewables can't compete... but the price will only rise again later..... ?

”

“Oil at a reasonable price has been vital, yes. It spurred all the technological advances - with the downside of a major population expansion.

From this point forward, oil at an unresonable price will be vital. It will spur new technological advances in the energy production field. Effectively creating competion which promotes further advances.”

“Alternative energy for cars is being stifled by silly ideas like ethenol to maintain the dominance of the internal combustion engine which is so dear to the racer roos. Couldn't have electro-nascar with the adsence of the engine roar.
last edited: 3/18/08 6:07:16 AM”

“The US is now in second place as the Euro-group has past us as the biggest economy and from a futuristic look that will continue.

As I've said so many times here, we are repeating what happened in Japan 20 years ago when they thought Real Estate prices could continue upwards for ever. Seventeen years of deflationary depression followed their bank failures and has still not cleared from the economy.
last edited: 3/18/08 6:19:00 AM”

“Engine roar is a constipational rite.”

“Couldn't have electro-nascar with the absence of the engine roar.

Americans like noise but as with anything that might be able to go fast, the hot rodders will yank the thing apart, put it back together, make it go scary fast and people will be willing to pay money to watch. The electric car is no exception.

They are doing it now and have been for awhile. Google "electric drag racing". Pretty dang interesting stuff there.

You know the best thing about electric motors?
Instant torque.”

“Good tech comes from the racers , but a lot of awful stupidity follows along as with all things that can be tweaked to perfection.”

“No argument from me on that point.”

“Pipeline bomb in the middle of oil price back off???????”

“Lately all the talk has been about the housing meltdown. If you think the pile of vacant houses is something, just wait until gas is $7/gallon and everybody is trying to sell the guzzling truck they still owe money on. Nobody will want to keep a vehicle they owe money on, but can't afford to put gas in. I read in the paper that some dealers won't even take them on a trade because they sit on the lot too long.”

“Some of these things are on 8 year loans. Maybe electric conversion for local delivery services might save some of these hulks.”

“Independent truckers are calling for a nationwide shutdown starting April 1 to protest rising fuel costs. So far 18,000 truckers are planning on shutting down. Strikes in the 1970's had no effect in lowering fuel costs, instead it resulted in temporary fuel surcharges.”

“It wont matter.... 5 bucks a gallon is coming...”

“America actually has huge reserves of petroleum, not in Texas or Alaska but in western North Dakota but the production there will require a $200/barrel return which will mean $10/gallon gasoline, at least so I have read.
last edited: 3/30/08 5:28:21 AM”

“time to get the bicycle ready for spring.”

“The shutdown is supposed to go from April 1 to April 6.
It'll be interesting to see how many participate in the shutdown and what they accomplish.

Two points they are trying to get across.

"The point of shutting down is to force the government and the public to take notice and respond to what is going on. The oil companies won't be the first to scream. Those who want to get their freight moved will be.

The rich folks who are investing in oil and driving the price up will be quickly moving their money to something else, as a result oil prices will drop.
Remember, just in the past week, gas consumption dropped only 1/10th of 1%, and oil prices dropped from 112.00 to 104.00 per barrel in a matter of a couple days. If investors think there will be a serious shutdown, they will be yanking their money out between now and April 1st. Just watch the price of oil between now and then."

"If you don’t think this shutdown will impact your life, think about this: The average grocery store maintains only a few days stock of perishable goods and a few weeks worth of nonperishables; therefore, if the shutdown — and, possibly, a strike — lasts longer than three days, you’re likely to feel an impact whether you want to or not."”

“I have actually joined the kooks who want $6 a gallon fuel. Nothing will be done until it freezes the country. We need to preform a moon-shot style achievement into alternative fuels. Unfortunetly I'm not sure we have the wherewithal to it without special interest groups coming in and proposing (and selling) stupid effing ideas like ethanol.

It scares me a bit because I drive an average of 500 miles a week for work.”

“55 mph worked last time.”

“You got it, SB. I set my cruise at 55-60 mph, Major difference in the mileage.”

“not to pick on nigal but in his statement is part of the problem (noting the problem has many parts). people live far away from where they work. our society exhibits behaviors that are tightly linked to the cheap price of gasoline. here in chicagoland 290/90/etc are flooded with cars driving into the city each morning and the reverse commute is, in my opinion, worse... despite the fact that the metra runs like clockwork. cities are sprawled out as people moved further and further away from the places the worked. i have friends that live WAY out in the sticks ("a man has to have his LAND" one friend told me) and have terrible commutes downtown. i feel terrible that they have awful gas bills that are going to get worse and that they are stuck with homes in places where people don't want to buy homes but hey, that was their choice.

i believe the answer to this is in part that people will have to change the nature of there they live and work but also i think the nature of work will change. more and more of our economy is shifting to a services economy. i have worked from out of my home for a decade. a lot of these companies downtown where people commute are recognizing that in order to lure talent they need to offer more flexibility... which mean telecommuting days, etc. i know it's not an option for many (perhaps most) people but it is just an illustration of my point.
last edited: 3/30/08 9:29:58 AM”

“Huge reserves of petro... They sound huge on paper untill you realise just how much oil we use every day. That "big find" in the gulf they just annouced... less then one weeks worth. Saudia arabias production is falling and there simply is no substitute for the easy oil they have provided. Peak oil is in fact here.

you mentioned 200.00 a barrel to make it profitable, that translates out to gas running about 8.00 a gallon at the pumps. This would put my heating oil bill at around 1200.00 per month. Does this sound like a bill you would want to pay?

Then there are the enviromental issuses.... converting tars , low grade oil and shale into gasoline is extremely polluting.

I am not into the doomsday thing but it is likely our society will in fact go into a deep recession for a while untill we adjust to the much higher price of fuel. We can no longer base our society on cheap oil. The rich will get richer and the common people will suffer.... as always.”

“Which big find in the Gulf are you talking about, Lumberjack?

The one I read of is 35 billion barrels although its very deep. Thats about a year's worth for the world or 4 years worth for the U.S..

You are correct that the oil in western North Dakota or northwest Colorado (even more than in North Dakota) would be extremely polluting to produce.

About 3 gallons per day of petroleum based fuel is burned in America for each person with the average person in the world on having only about 3/5 of one gallon burned in their behalf.
last edited: 3/31/08 4:32:42 AM”

“When gas is $8 a gal then people will invest in alternatives. More people will buy electric/alternative fuel cars and then the price for them will come down to something the average person can afford. When your fuel bill grows too high, then people will conserve, they will install on demand hot water heaters, put in more insulation, turn the thermostat down, whatever it takes. Political pressure will build for more nuke plants (the best option), wind farms, solar power solutions.

Rising oil prices is what the Global Warming peole should want.”

“The consumption per person in the US doesn't reflect the 40-50 million illegal residents we conveniently forget to count and they drive the least effient of the cars and live in the least efficent houses.

Lowering solar panel and windmill prices is what is needed.
last edited: 3/31/08 6:31:20 AM”

“Does that 3.5 gallons/person include all the oil used to make plastics, pave roads, etc?”

“Probably not.......”

“By the time we pick a president, NCAA and NBA champions and get to the Olympics the people involved will consume how many times the average?”

“That seems to be an often overlooked detail when talking about oil dependancy. Oil is used for a lot more things than just fuel.”

“And, the oil to get the oil here and the oil to fight the wars to keep the oil comming. m Frequent Fryer Miles?
last edited: 3/31/08 7:09:55 AM”

“and the oil to make the fertilizer to grow the corn to make ethanol and the soybeans to make bio diesel to keep from using oil.

OWWW!! I am getting headache.”

“I'm no farmer, but I believe legume crops like soy put nitrogen into the soil.

Corn takes nitrogen from the soil and soy is planted for several years to put it back.

Algae is said to be the most efficient way to produce vegetabel oil for diesel fuel.”

“So that area between my toes is essentially an oil field.”

“Inplant beans, corn and squash. All plants benefit. 3 crops in one area.”

“Turn your golfcourse into BSC garden.”

“An important thing to note is that the cost of bio diesel can undercut the price of petro diesel and can be produced and used very close to home involving a lot less haulage.”

“Haulage?”

“haul·age
–noun
1. the act or labor of hauling.
2. the amount of force expended in hauling.
3. a charge made, esp. by a railroad, for hauling equipment, commodities, etc.
[Origin: 1820–30; haul + -age]”

“Watch the use of that 'age' word, Kiddo!”

“Gotchya, oh ageless one.”

“Currently we are using about 90 million barrels per day. The 35 billion claim is a misleading number. There is only a 10 percent chance they will ever get 35 billion out of the well and only the first half will be easy to pump. All oil finds use heavily inflated numbers even knowing that there is only a slim chance the claimed amount will ever be produced. Even the saudis still claim huge reserves inspite of thier inability to maintain production. (Ghanwar is post-peak and production is falling as predicted.)

Bio fuels are not even close to filling even one million barrels worth. An oil shortage will mean much more land will need to be dedicated to food crops. Which will you choose? eating or running your hummer?

Solar installs will also go up a lot with the price of fuel. Those who have solar installed will benefit and those who cant afford it now will not be able to afford it in the future. Solar will become less affordable in the long run because it requires OIL to produce them.

Developing solar en masse before a crisis hits is cheaper and there are a few workable plans. It remains to be seen if they will be built in time to do any real good or if they will be scrapped as un-affordable....

The simple matter is we will completely wreck our enviroment trying to keep our hummers running and to heck with both our children and the rest of the world... Like the scorpian said, its just our nature. Those who have the will and the means will prosper. Who cares what will happen to the rest?”

“
We’ll meet again
Don't know where
Don't know when
But I know we'll meet again some sunny day

Keep smiling true
Just like you
Always do
'Til the blue skies make the dark clouds fade away

Some sunny day hey hey hey
Some sunny day hey hey hey
Some sunny day hey hey hey

We'll meet again
Don't know where
Don't know when
But I know we'll meet again some sunny day.....

”

“See the thing is we're seeing $100 almost entirely on fear, speculation and the fall of the dollar. We haven't even seen what happens if we get serious supply disruption.

There needs to be a serious move to develop solutions now.”

“I agree, something needs to be done soon. Actually, years ago.

I'd gladly pay $5 a gallon for an alternative that would allow for the collapse of the OPEC nations.”

“push forward on nuke plant construction, save oil for industrial use, invest in research on possible orbital power sats. Pie in the sky now, but our best bet for the future.

Energy demand is not going to go down. we'll be at 9 billion people in the year 2050.”

“did you know used motor oil can be used to fertilize your lawn?”

“could be used for other things too. I think i'd rather spread #&%!$e on my lawn than motor oil”

“(it was from a scene in "fight club")”

“sounds familiar, I enjoyed the movie, but most of the lines weren't retained as knowledge ;)”