the Energy Crisis looms (no political ta lk)

“This will be the greatest crisis in human history - and it will start to show in about 20 years. Fifty years from now we'll start seeing major problems. Like famine, wars, worldwide economic collapse.

Start thinking about this now. I've been talking about this issue with family and friends for a while, and saw this article online so thought I would pass it on...

http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9596_22-5492624.html

Oh, and to reinforce - I'm NOT trying to start political discussion on blame. Just trying to spread the word.”

“The same #&%!$ they were peddlin' twenty years ago...

It's easy to scare the uninformed because they'll skip over this -

"Without a change, developing countries will ultimately be left in the dark"

The problem with their scare tactics - Things do change, we are constantly becoming more efficient in using fuels for energy. While there is a finite supply, the efficiency curve is always moving the zero point farther and farther away from us, not closer to us.”

“The world is full of famine, war, and economic collapse today.”

“Well....that didn't take long. Way to go Bison. :(

How is this bull$hit? I know you won't agree but .... aren't we fighting a war over oil right now? I know, it's not about oil, it's all about freedom and democracy, killing the terrorists. Blah, blah, blah.

20 years from now we'll probably be back in some foreign land fighting over energy again, under the guise of another slogan...freedom for Beluchistan, etc. Will the parents of our dead soldiers still be explaining their loss as protecting our freedom?”

“Wait to see what happens in the next 10 year with water shortages. You can already start to see the effect out west.”

“Who's the "they" we're talking about here?”

“So JO, when you had scientists saying 20 years ago that we were gonna run out of energy by now you just bought it hook, line, and sinker....

I see plenty of cars runnin' down the road outside of my office window today...”

“The "They" are various scientists who come up with ridiculous predictions because their models assume constants that aren't really constant.”

“Only when there is no oil to manipulate for profit, will the rich release the technologies they have repressed to protect their profits; as the oil profits begin to decline, we will see the gradual growth of "Technological break throughs" in areas like fuel cells, hydrogen and solar power...but this has to grow gradually as oil declines, to hide the obvious from the oblivious.....(Everyday consumers).

Profit will be the savior of the world during the coming energy crisis!
last edited: 12/16/04 10:32:46 AM”

“The world's scientists agree - we are running out of oil. Period. Who cares if they are off by 20 years? 40 years? It certainly won't be 100 years. We have developed industrially in an eyeblink (looking at the length of human history), and it could all be gone in an eyeblink if we don't start working on it now.

Increasing efficiencies do not move D-day farther away. China is quickly overtaking the US in oil consumption. Other countries are ramping up, too. So we (the world) make it more efficient to burn but then still burn way more oil than before. It also increases our dependency. Instead of spending our time and energy looking for a different form of energy that just makes us want oil more. So we'll have super efficient cars that get 200 miles per gallon in the year 2074, with no gas left to put in them.”

“I don't think it will take a catastophic event to cause a change in the type of energy we use; it will get to the point where the expensive alternatives will finally be economic to develop. e.g., right now we could utilize gas made from coal, but it takes oil prices of $75 per bbl to make it profitable.”

“Super troll beat me to it..”

“One theory is to "Drain the Middle East First"--I like that one...”

“Exactly aero, economic efficiency has to be part of the model in addition to mechanical efficiency...

I have a problem with people trying to scare people into believing BS based on a model where consumption increases but efficiency does not... This isn't a model that reflects reality.”

“More hiking, less driving!”

“Applesauce -

Stop impersonating ENS.”

“i don't need any scientist to tell me the future.

i have my own gift of foresight. and this is what i see:

i see this thread moving into the fuego category.

i see tnt becoming dissapointed his thread went where he hoped it would not.

i see other TTers sitting at their PCs thinking 'duh, what did you expect tnt? what are you, a newbie?'

like sand through an hourglass...”

“Peace, love, happiness, save the whales!”

“I agree with Wounded Knee, there are alternative energy sources but no alternatives for water.

While we can extract water from the sea it takes a lot of energy.

back in 1896 the Stanley brothers made a steam car.

The first great triumph of the Stanley Steamer came in 1906. A car with a strange body appeared at Daytona Beach, Florida, in January of that year. It looked like a small boat with a prow front and rear. Actually this was an early attempt at streamlining. The slender, highwheeled vehicle flashed across the sands at a little over 127 mph, setting a new land speed record. It was a great record. Darracq had held the previous record with a speed of 109 mph, made in 1905. Stanley held the record until 1910, when Barney Oldfield drove a Benz only four miles per hour faster.

Stirred by their success, the Stanley brothers returned in 1906 with the same car. They were set for an all-out effort. They tuned the car to a fine edge, and ran the boiler pressure up to an astronomical figure. With Fred Marriott, who had driven the previous year, at the wheel, the machine started down the beach. The speed increased steadily 150, 160, and still climbing. The speedometer now read 197, and the needle showed no sign of easing down. Suddenly the car hit a slight bump, and Nature's laws of aerodynamics took over. The bottom of the car was completely smooth, in fact it functioned as a wing. Marriott and the Stanley became airborne! For about 100 feet the car really flew. Then it landed. A crumpled wreck and a badly injured driver were the result. The speed was necessarily unofficial, but it was not until 1927 that a record car exceeded the pace of that famous run 197 mph, back in 1906!

Passive solar for household water heating would save a lot of electricity. I have the new florescent bulbs in most lamps of my house and I am sure LED bulbs cannot be far away.

This is offset of course by monster SUV's which are simply irresponsible.
Also we should be looking at Dirigibles for short haul air traffic. With helium instead of hydrogen they should be safe and with plastics and Titanium the payload should be viable.”

“Bison

20 years ago scientists were NOT predicting that we'd be out of oil by today. Back in 1984 when I heard their predictions, the same they had given back in 1974, what I did buy hook, line and sinker was the fact that President Reagan was not listening to any of these predictions and that altenative energy sources would get short shrift.


They were predicting that we'd run out over a range of years, that could vary due to the consumption levels, new discoveries, technology, etc.

They also predicted that there would be higher prices as supply decreased and that there would be conflicts. All that has happened.

Yes, there are cars driving past your window today. A lot more than there were 20 years ago. Even though they may be slightly more efficient there are a lot more. Where you are in NoVA is a traffic nightmare.”

“No JO, there were scientists doing this exact same thing back then, just as there are plenty today predicting that we will run out over a much longer course. Same #&%!$, different decade.”

“Manuka

Way to go bro!

:)”

“I produced a directed a documentary 3 years ago on this growing threat. We touched on water shortages, pollution, and a bit on solutions.

Talk about a eye opening experience! I am sure the facts I dug up have changed a bit, but a lot of stuff has not changed.

I sent a copy to Chili about a year ago. Anyone else want a copy?”

“While it would be great to force ourselves to develop better oil-less technologies for stuff, unfortunately aero and supertroll are right - it's economics. In transportation planning, it's sometimes said that "congestion is our friend," meaning that people will only start taking transit more, riding bikes, and carpooling when the congestion gets unbearable. It's the same thing with oil. Once we run out, then we'll have to get our butts in gear. Unfortunately, I doubt it will happen much before then....”

“About 20 yrs ago I purchased solar panels that heated the water for my house. In the summer time I could turn off the electricity for the water heater. That water was so damn hot it will scald you if you weren't careful. In the winter it would go back and forth between solar and electricity.”

“Ewker, there are two types of solar panels, the most common "here" generates electricity and is fairly complex.

Passive solar is a shallow box, painted matt black inside, and has little more than a radiator like a car inside also painted black, with a glass cover over the box. Put it on an angle to the sun, hook up bottom of water tank to the bottom of the radiator, feed top of radiator back to top of water tank. Heat rises so natural convection cycles all the water through the radiator which is heated like a car with black interior sitting in the sun. Seen this a lot in 3rd world countries using old car radiators. Yes you need a pressure relief guage in the water tank because it will boil, and a float like any hot water tank to keep the water level constant.”

“"....as the oil profits begin to decline, we will see the gradual growth of "Technological break throughs" in areas like fuel cells, hydrogen and solar power...but this has to grow gradually as oil declines, to hide the obvious from the oblivious.....(Everyday consumers)."

Well said SuperTroll, well said!”

“manuka, what you described is what we had. They sold quite a few of those in the south. They worked really well in the summer. I think that house still has the panels on it. Now whether it still works is another story.”

“Bison.....how would you know? You were probably 5 yrs old and playing with your GPS.

Some said that, most did not.

Ah....Northern Virginia traffic!

George HW Bush once said that we will never compromise our standard of living.

SUVs forever!!!”

“Listen to Bison you fools, there is no need for alarm.


Well, HW will never compromise the standard of living for the "haves" and the "have-mores".
The rest of us can go ahead and peddle a bicycle.
last edited: 12/16/04 11:37:32 AM”

“Get your Kodak's ready.................I bearmagnet, being of sound (sort of) mind and completely sober..........ing up..........................................


Agree with Bison.


I would point to the dire predictions of the late 60s-70s by some of the greatest Scientific minds as a better example, though.

Michael Crichton has a new book coming out on this very subject.

Please note though that I think dire predictions keep us on our toes and aren't neccessarily a bad thing. They might even be the primary fuel to develop new technologies that "avert" the impending catastrophe.
last edited: 12/16/04 11:42:29 AM”

“OK, can we all agree that "more hiking-less driving" is better?”

“Ewker, it probably still works, the only moving parts are the water intake and pressure relief valves in the tank.

Most common failures are the glass cover for the box getting broken letting heat out, or someone not thinking and using rubber hoses to the radiator which dry out and fracture from the heat. Both are easy fixes.”

“More hiking for me means more driving and more flying.”

“This thread makes me want to fill up my SUV and drive to work at 90 mph. Hopefully on the way to work I'll run over some of those small fuel efficent cars that always get in my way because they are going 55 mph.”

“aero, take a hike !!

Geez Bear, you just got chucked off the Cool Guy List !!

Yeah sure, 30-40 years ago there were some who thought the oil would be gone by now.

They were wrong, but only about WHEN the stuff would run out.

China is a wild card with their increased consumption.
It would be wise to develop other fuels and let the Chinese be stuck with oil.

North America could produce enough vegetable oil diesel to become nearly fuel-independent and not be held hostage by the petroleum cabal of Islamic fundamentalists and Big Oil companies.

The diesel engine is here and now.
Hydrogen engines are not.”

“I don't have enough info at hand to make an informed decision here, but it's never a bad idea to be ready for the worst. Sure, maybe we're ok now, but would we really be ok if say OPEC cut us off entirely?

Just because our government and auto makers won't look at alternative fuels doesn't mean we can't put on a little pressure as the consumer. Grassroots is the only way changes like this wills start. Who knows maybe it will catch on. Some healthier diets are a fad now. Whoda thunk that a couple years ago.

Just heard on NPR article the other day on....dang can't remember the country now, but alternative fuels. They created a fuel from suger cane that was used when gas prices went up. When there was a cane shortage, they went back to gas. They now have motors in new cars that can switch between the two fuels. That's awesome! We have alternative fuels here already, there's just no demand for them.”

“Good for you ULTRApecker, maybe then you can spend some time in the slammer for vee-HICK-ular homicide.”

“Didn't I hear a while back about some college students who drove a car across country on hydrogen extracted from water? Maybe I imagined it...

I do not agree with the comment about SUV's being irresponsible. My wife drives an SUV because she feels safer, it is easier for her to see what is going on around her, and it is beneficial for her work. And when flooding occurred here after the Hurricane, we were able to get to the store for milk and diapers.

BTW, we spent almost two weeks with no power...it is amazing how dependent I had become on electricity. It was kind of a blow to my ego. I had always figured I could get along fine, but when you have a family depending on you, the rules change. I will never be caught that unprepared again. Hope everyone is having a splendid holiday season. Cheers.”

“No, I gotta get out of jail free card.”

“MarkO - they were also predicting famine and a population well above what it is today. The famine didn't pan out because of advances in ag tech and India blowing everyones mine by becoming an ag exporter!

Population didn't pan out because fertility dropped...........no enviro theories on that, please!

As for UP - I like to count all the SUV's that end up in the ditch here in the winter.

On a more tragic note, several teens with only a few months of driving experience have ended up dead due to inexperience.

Taking a drivers ed class doesn't seem to prepare one for driving the family SUV in 5 lanes of traffic.”

“I have no problem with SUV's.

I do have a problem with young Americans fighting and dying to keep the price of petroleum low so that some folks can afford to fuel gigantic automobiles.

All the while petro-fuel can be replaced with home-grown bio-diesel and motor transportation would hardly miss a stroke.

Yeah BearMan, about 8 years ago I was returning from Dolly Sods in MY SUV(Big Bronco) in a freakin'-near blizzard.
I kept cool and on the road......slow.
This impatient guy in a good-size SUV finally passed me.
A little later I saw him slide right off of Route 55 near Baker, WVa and through a barbed wire fence.
I waved as I went by.
last edited: 12/16/04 12:09:18 PM”

“jokerwild, the only reason she needs a big ass SUV is to see over the others ones on the road.”

“True MarkO, and right now we're paying farmers not to plant there fields. Why not let them grow crops that can be used for biofuels?”

“Gosh Alabama milk and diapers must be a lot different from here. Dont need a big a55ed truck to move diapers up here.

"feel safer" in a vehicle that rolls over multiple times more than cars, maybe that feeling is misleading.

Yep, we do disagree !! about responsible auto use.”

“Wow, this site most certainly represents a definitive chasm between the generally pessimist and optimist mind.
last edited: 12/16/04 12:11:31 PM”

“Rudolph Diesel demonstrated his engine burning peanut oil.

One of his concerns in developing his engine was the toxic output of petro-fueled engines way back in the 1890's.

Imagine that?”

““True MarkO, and right now we're paying farmers not to plant there fields. Why not let them grow crops that can be used for biofuels?”
Indiana John
12:07:06 PM
12/16/04
ignore this user

Those in the oil indrustry will start to panic.”

“Manuka - in most of the the SUV fatal accidents there was no rolling, or it rolled and ended up with the driver side against the pavement. Many of the accidents seemed to have been caused by over-correction.”

“thats exactly the outcome we're looking for WK.”