Global Warming

“Warren Buffet was talking about that yesterday when inheritance taxes became the subject.”

“The section that briefly discussed the lead/lag issue linked to another article on the same site (link below):

"Second, the idea that there might be a lag of CO2 concentrations behind temperature change (during glacial-interglacial climate changes) is hardly new to the climate science community. Indeed, Claude Lorius, Jim Hansen and others essentially predicted this finding fully 17 years ago, in a landmark paper that addressed the cause of temperature change observed in Antarctic ice core records, well before the data showed that CO2 might lag temperature. In that paper (Lorius et al., 1990), they say that:

'changes in the CO2 and CH4 content have played a significant part in the glacial-interglacial climate changes by amplifying, together with the growth and decay of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, the relatively weak orbital forcing...'

What is being talked about here is influence of the seasonal radiative forcing change from the earth's wobble around the sun (the well established Milankovitch theory of ice ages), combined with the positive feedback of ice sheet albedo (less ice = less reflection of sunlight = warmer temperatures) and greenhouse gas concentrations (higher temperatures lead to more CO2 leads to warmer temperatures). Thus, both CO2 and ice volume should lag temperature somewhat, depending on the characteristic response times of these different components of the climate system. Ice volume should lag temperature by about 10,000 years, due to the relatively long time period required to grow or shrink ice sheets. CO2 might well be expected to lag temperature by about 1000 years, which is the timescale we expect from changes in ocean circulation and the strength of the "carbon pump" (i.e. marine biological photosynthesis) that transfers carbon from the atmosphere to the deep ocean.

Several recent papers have indeed established that there is lag of CO2 behind temperature. We don't really know the magnitude of that lag as well as Barton implies we do, because it is very challenging to put CO2 records from ice cores on the same timescale as temperature records from those same ice cores, due to the time delay in trapping the atmosphere as the snow is compressed into ice (the ice at any time will always be younger older than the gas bubbles it encloses, and the age difference is inherently uncertain). Still, the best published calculations do show values similar to those quoted by Barton (presumably, taken from this paper by Monnin et al. (2001), or this one by Caillon et al. (2003)). But the calculations can only be done well when the temperature change is large, notably at glacial terminations (the gradual change from cold glacial climate to warm interglacial climate). Importantly, it takes more than 5000 years for this change to occur, of which the lag is only a small fraction (indeed, one recently submitted paper I'm aware of suggests that the lag is even less than 200 years). So it is not as if the temperature increase has already ended when CO2 starts to rise. Rather, they go very much hand in hand, with the temperature continuing to rise as the the CO2 goes up. In other words, CO2 acts as an amplifier, just as Lorius, Hansen and colleagues suggested."


http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/04/the-lag-between-temp-and-co2/



To put this to a modern test, look at modern data. In the last 150 years we can see that CO2 has risen sharply before temperature started increasing. Direct measurement done with modern equipment. The CO2 has continued to rise as the temps have continued to rise. Just within the last few months scientists have said that some parts of the ocean that were previously CO2 sinks have suddenly become saturated and reversed - now they are spitting out CO2, so we can expect over the next decade to see CO2 levels rise much more dramatically (now that temps have already started to rise). This is exactly what happened in previous warming periods.”

“Firstly, this sounds a bit funny considering the claims of the alarmists: Ice volume should lag temperature by about 10,000 years, due to the relatively long time period required to grow or shrink ice sheets.

Secondly, Several recent papers have indeed established that there is lag of CO2 behind temperature. We don't really know the magnitude of that lag as well as Barton implies we do, because it is very challenging to put CO2 records from ice cores on the same timescale as temperature records from those same ice cores, due to the time delay in trapping the atmosphere as the snow is compressed into ice (the ice at any time will always be younger older than the gas bubbles it encloses, and the age difference is inherently uncertain). Yeah, well then Gore shouldn't have mentioned it and made a BIG graph about it and put it in his movie then!

Finally, assuming we accept everything you just posted, all you've proven is that it's a natural occurance that has been repeating itself for thousands of years. It even concludes with that!”

“Did you know Gore helps the CO2 problem by only inhaling and not exhaling- that why he's inflated like the Michlein Dude. Could also be from so much high altitude in his contrailor.
last edited: 11/15/07 9:00:57 AM”

“tech, your two posts do not correlate. In the first one I do not see anywhere where it says temp rise was STARTED by increased CO2. I see that solar activity increased temps which caused increased CO2 which increased temps. Your second one says that CO2 has gone up and now we are seeing temps rise. So was their increased solar activity that started the new trend? If not then the two scenarios have nothing to do with each other.”

“it's interesting that we're having the latest fall ever this year. The leaves are still on the trees heading into the end of November. We're at peak color here in southern PA. Usually peak color is hear and gone by Halloween. We'll probably still have leaves on the trees into December.

Every year, the leaves are lasting longer and longer. Just an observation.”

“No one is (or can) deny the fact that the earth is getting warmer. It's the cause that is up for grabs and the reasons why the man-made global warming theory is being pushed so hard. Money and power. Plain and simple.”

“With the massive profits on fossil fuel consumption the challenge to the man made aspects is really boiling over.
Here in the Mojave Desert lawns still need mowing and the trees look like August. Lowest low 39*F so far, lowest high 68*F.”

“It's the money and power that are behind the denial of man-influenced climate change.

The coal and petroleum industries stand to lose profits and influence if, no, when alternatives supplant their products.

Wars have been fought over oil and rubber and other things that everyone consumes.

Wars have been fought and humans enslaved to enhance the profits of those who produce things that virtually everyone consumes......
Sugar
Tea
Coffee
Bananas
Rubber
Spices

The commodity status of some of these products goes back hundreds of years.”

““it's interesting that we're having the latest fall ever this year. The leaves are still on the trees heading into the end of November. We're at peak color here in southern PA. Usually peak color is hear and gone by Halloween. We'll probably still have leaves on the trees into December.

Every year, the leaves are lasting longer and longer. Just an observation.”

Yes, it's a beautiful thing.”

“In the past some natural occurance has triggered a warming event at the end of each ice age - it could be the natural wobble on our axis. Once that slight warming has started, about 20% into the warming CO2 starts to rise, which warms us more, which releases more CO2, and so on to get the final 80% of the warming period. Then some other process starts a cooldown, which causes the CO2 to drop shortly after as it gets reabsorbed into the oceans.

Fast foward to present day. We have modern measurements that show (in this case) that we have put a lot of CO2 into the atmosphere, by tapping into the carbon reserves below and burning it. Once that CO2 was in place, the temperatures started to rise. We are the trigger, when in the past it was a natural trigger. Now that the process has started, we have proof that some of the natural release of CO2 is starting to happen. We also know that there is no way to stop our own CO2 contribution for probably 100 years. At that time we will have several times more CO2 in the atmosphere than we have ever had in the past.”

“China is opening on average 1 coal fired electric plant per week. Go picket them.”

“Yup, that would be a start.”

“"China is opening on average 1 coal fired electric plant per week. Go picket them."

You betchya, them and the coal companies that are practicing mountaintop removal in Appalachia.

Actually, I can't take the time to travel to China.
I'm too busy with things like work and backpacking.
I will write my representative instead, he works for me.”

“Once that CO2 was in place, the temperatures started to rise.

Not according to the graphs that I've seen. Link? It hasn't been right at the event as you suggest. The rise in temp more closely correlates to the CO2 rise of hundreds of years ago. I think you might be surprised if you look at a graph showing man-made CO2 production and thermal temperature.”

“tech, that isn't proof. Its data analysis. Most of us are not arguing the data. We are arguing about the interpretation and how best to address what it all might mean. I am not for more oil and more coal. I am for nuclear energy now as well as wind turbine fields (although they will just to lighten the burden). I think we need to go after solar energy utilizing space based power sats. I think we need to find technological answers to our coming energy crisis/needs. That is more important than stupid carbon footprint nonsense. As a species we are going to use power. We are going to be using much more than we are now, especially with the growing industrialization of China, India and from the third world nations. Also, China and India will account for over 25% of new car sales by 2012 (the US will contribute 11%). The US can cut CO2 emissions but the problem won't go away. The result will be that we will hamstring our industries at a time when we most need them to address the problems caused by warming.”

“I think the actions of the EcoReligions are pretty darn obvious. It has NOTHING to do with warming, or saving the planet....it has to do with

“With the massive profits on fossil fuel consumption the challenge to the man made aspects is really boiling over.”

“Massive profits are cause for denial.

Massive piles are getting ready to tip.
And that has nothing to do with diners in Iowa.”

“I've yet to see any of the Goreganites actually show that the errors as ruled on by a court in England weren't actual errors. I've heard them defend the context of the errors, attack the unbelievers, and spout out about big business being evil, but not once have I seen a defense based on actual solid scientific fact.”

“In the meantime, those who favor environmental degradation and communism can continue buying Chinese-made goods at Walmart.

Don't forget the lead-dipped toys for the kiddies' Christmas stockings.”

“Rosey tinted antisocialistsocialistgooglesandonionjrtearuicepee!”

“perhaps you might like to buy some lead dipped toys, but those of us that base our economic decisions on facts would rather not save money by poisoning our kids.”

“Well unless you have Munchausen syndrome by proxy”

“A worn out VP, an English court and a Cal toy importer sitting in an Iowa diner with a hookah smoking caterpillar will lend some light onto the subject?”

“
And up in the sky
an Arabian Rabbi
fed Quaker oats to a Priest

Pretty Good.....

”

“tilt and Marko only care about global warming because its a way to hamstring American Corporations. You never contribute anything that resembles science or facts, just statements about how corporations are destroying the earth. techntrek at least basis his arguments on science.”

“Mattel is the perfect example of a Corporation hiding behind every little kid and blaming our gov, China and everyone else on the planet for what is their mistakes.

Your government has only one purpose- to protect the big organizations that paid their way into the positions they hold.”

“lead paint never hurt anyone! Silly libbies”

“I'd forgotten, that's where the lead in your pencil comes from.hehe”

“Kiplinger.com: Turning Green into Green”

“LOL....as soon as someone REALLY turns a profit they will be declared an ENEMY of the Envirosocialist Religion and assaulted for their wealth.”

“Snow two months earlier than last year!

BrrrRRrrrrrrRrrRRRRrrrrrr .....”

“Its all part of KING BUSH's Control of the environment.”

“Twits without Mitts.
last edited: 11/19/07 6:44:05 AM”

“the earth heats up the earth cools down

adapt or die”

“A pile without a smile.”

“If you want to kill yourselves, fine.

But don't try to take us with you.”

“Stop fighting the adapt or die movement, unless you are promoting that you want to die.”

“If you want to kill yourselves, fine.

But don't try to take us with you.”
Tilt
11:13:11 AM
11/19/07



LMFAO!!! Oh, the f'n drama!!”

“Vegan Heather Mills' latest bizarre outburst: 'Why don't we drink rats' milk?'
19.11.07

It's been another typical day in the world of Heather Mills.

She started her day by storming out of a radio interview with London's LBC station, and then turned up at Speakers' Corner, in a gas-guzzling black 4x4 Mercedes, to lecture the assembled crowds on ways of saving the planet.

As part of her extraordinary tirade at Speakers' Corner in Hyde Park, Heather exhorted people to try drinking rat's milk instead of cow milk to help reduce global warming.

Dairy intolerance: Heather Mills addresses a crowd at Speakers' Corner to launch a new poster campaign by animals charity Viva!

Heather said that eating meat and dairy and chopping down trees in order to breed livestock was seriously damaging the environment and she suggested there were more eco-friendly alternatives to using cow's milk.

"Why don't we drink rat's milk or cat's milk or dog's milk?" she asked.



Tilt, you drink rat's milk, don't you?”

“does it come from male rats? No thank you.”

“
CQ TODAY
Nov. 16, 2007 – 5:46 p.m.
Bioenergy Investors Flexing Political Clout
By Alan K. Ota, CQ Staff

Investors and executives who thrived during the Internet boom are now looking to Washington for help to cash in on alternatives to gasoline.

Take Alix Burns, a Silicon Valley trade group manager in a previous life. She now represents a tony investment house that sees future growth and profits in turning waste and tall grasses into fuel for cars and planes.

With Congress considering additional tax breaks and subsidies to encourage alternatives to imported oil such as ethanol and other fuels made from recycled animal waste or switchgrass, miscanthus and sorghum, Burns’ client and other investors are turning money into lobbying clout and campaign contributions for their cause.

“It’s not your father’s ethanol industry,” said Burns.

Burns spent six years with TechNet and was a finance director of the 2000 presidential campaign of former Vice President Al Gore. Last fall, she started a lobbying firm with one main client, Kleiner Perkins Caulfield && Byers, a Silicon Valley venture capital firm that has invested in new ethanol companies, fuel cells, solar and wind power.

Kleiner Perkins’ interest in alternative fuels got a burst of publicity Nov. 12, when Gore came aboard as a partner in the firm.

Alternative energy startups backed by Kleiner Perkins would be potential beneficiaries of incentives in the pending farm bill (HR 2419) and a stalled energy policy package (HR 6). The tax title of the Senate’s farm bill would provide a 67-cents-per-gallon excise tax credit for ethanol produced from cellulose, atop the 51-cent credit ethanol receives under a 2005 law (PL 109-58).

With government support seen as necessary to make alternative fuels competitive in the marketplace, investors are making sure they have lawmakers’ attention.


Still cheaper than starting wars, eh?
Figure that into the cost and oil isn't so cheap.... even at $100 a barrel.”

“just more political graft in the making. What we need are less lobbyist and more people with the guts to put their own money behind there values to start up these green companies.”

“I've always seen the climate change and creationism rhubarbs as related for this reason:  when you have an occupant of the White House who is actively hostile to science, "the fish rots from the head down," as they say.

Remember Stratdewd's rants against 'them pointy-headed science guys'..... LOL

Go ahead, put somebody like that in charge.   What could it hurt?”

“Yeah, great connection there. (rolls eyes)”

“When you put Junior into the mix, it's pretty obvious.  Next thing you know, the faith-based crowd tries to dismiss science as just another 'faith'.... How ironic is that?”

“And it keeps getting worst for the High Church of the EnviorSocialists.

http://www.ncasi.org/publications/Detail.aspx?id=3025”

“Tilt, you seem to have this concept in your head that Christians are stupid. There are stupid Christians, and there are stupid atheists. From my personal experience, the Christians I know are not stupid. I'd say at least 90% of my Christian friends fall in 1 of 3 categories: (1) doctors/nurses (medical), (2)teachers (public and private) and (3), engineers (electrical/computer).

Notice, 2 of the 3 groups are science related. Christians don't dismiss science like your narrow view of them would have you believe. You actually sound like you have no experience whatsoever with interacting with a reasonably sized subset of Christians, as if all your experiences come from reading The Daily Kos or watching Katie Couric, or similar sources.

LOL! Poor Tilt.”

“Sarge good point...as Christian I realize that Science is from God. Therefore like everything I must understand the intention of the creation.”

“People who pick imaginary creators to pass the responsibility their their own actions onto have personality flaws. You both know well how it's like the Network of phoney people that follow you around to make sure your network is okay.

You're both are so anti-Anything that have doesn't thee and thou sprinkled all over it with dashes of libby,libby and libby.
last edited: 11/20/07 6:55:18 AM”