Global Warming

“China recently increased its use of oil which is fueling an industrial revolution there by buying almost as much oil as the US... The unexpected chinese demand is expected to increase and was not factored into most projections. )”
Lumberjack

All true Lumberjack. We will hit peak oil in the not so distant future. That is why I advocate higher taxes on oil now so that fossil energy is artificially higher. That way we will get a jump start on alternatives. The world won't quit spinning when we run out of oil. Energy will always be available for those that can afford it. We still have lots of natural gas and coal as well. If clean alternative fuels are not cheaper than natural gas and coal then we will still use fossil fuels for energy for a long time coming. People will be running their air conditioners far into the globally warmed future as long as they can afford it.”

“You can't get daily coffee at Starbuck's for that!

$1.65 x 30 = < $50.00
but point taken”

“You can't get daily coffee at Starbuck's for that!

$1.65 x 30 = < $50.00
but point taken”
hikerboy



For 2 bucks you can get Cafe Au Lait at Cafe Du Monde with beignets.”

“Many can walk to Starbucks , how many miles each day do some drive ,out of their way, to access the Buckstars?”

“Starbucks Vente/20 oz BOLD black coffee cost's $1.89 and there is none BOLDER.”

“Bateauxdriver,
we hit peak per capita oil production in 1979 and have been declining at 1.2 percent per year since exactly as predicted by the hubbard curves.....


An interesting axiom I read today...

When evaluating contradictory recommendations from different people, all of whom have impressive academic credentials, it is important to remember another fundamental law: "For every Ph.D. there is an equal and opposite Ph.D”

“I read an interesting book back in the 70’s. It’s called Limits to Growth. It’s just the sort of thing a professor of liberal arts would want young, impressionable minds to read, but I did find it very thought provoking.

I have no doubt that human beings have effected climate change. The micro-climate of a city is different from the tree-infested surrounding suburbs and countryside.

Isn’t it funny that the most yelling for change comes from those who have already destroyed so much? Most cities vote leftist. Europe, which long ago irreparably altered its environment, is leftist. Have they finally learned something?

Nah, they still aren’t asking the right questions. The science is dodgy at best. Do these people think that scientists have answers to climate change when they can’t even predict the weather five days from now? But, like their usual knee-jerk reactions, the leftists want to do something and they want to do it now.

I agree XL; it’s a great excuse to bring down the economies of the powerful a notch. What is the reasoning for the lax environmental standards imposed on India and China under the Kyoto Protocol? XL, here’s something you’ll appreciate:


“The inherent vice of capitalism is the unequal sharing of blessings; the inherent virtue of socialism is the equal sharing of miseries.”

Winston Churchill




I’m glad that the environmental “wackos” exist. I believe that we all need to do something personally. My houses are designed to exist within their environment with minimum impact. Unfortunately, most folks aren’t interested in my residential designs because they don’t look like the house next door, and the one next to that, and the one next to that, …

We need both voices for change and voices for clarity. And as usual, people of different opinions keep talking past each other. I believe we can make changes to the environment. I also believe we don’t understand all of the consequences of our actions. Understanding the science is important. Asking the right questions is important. Not forcing others to make sacrifices before we understand the consequences of our actions is important.

My philosophy says that it is wrong for me to impose my will on others through force. The leftists have no such philosophical blocks. They continually try to force the rest of us into compliance with their will. Governments do not operate by free-market principles, but by force. Leftist show disdain for free-markets. Nothing I can say will change the dysfunctional leftist mentality. To quote a light bulb joke: “…the light bulb’s really got to want to change.”

What can we do personally to effect the changes we think are important? I’m designing a house that will be as energy independent as I can make it. When they design an energy efficient car that suits my driving style, and has proven reliable, I’ll buy it. I’m buying a motorcycle.

XL, I think that the Socialist Party’s strategy of influencing the Democratic Party has, and will continue to work until it is no longer worth feeding off of the U.S. economy.”

“snarklite sees red people”

“Left, left, left right left”

“WOW...good urn Arc.

Lumber...you know they predicted the end of usable oil in the 1980's too....just like in the 1970's we were afraid of...(here it comes) Global COOLING..yep the smog was going to cut us off from the SUN and freeze us (same twits same EXPERT OPINION) but then they turned out to be WRONG.

Personally I would like to see a running score of the wrong/right of these wackos.

You would get the typical pencil necked doofus Scienceschlub up there with

"Dr. IWANNA GORED Phd (10 right 30000 wrong) that way we could see if he was good or bad...or better yet issue a rating like a bond rating. SO he would have say a C+ rating. Base it on right/wrong predictions. He predicts a disasterous Hurricane season (like that horror we just went through last year) and NADA occurs...shoot his rating down.

Its the same reason The Enron bunch et al will never get another shot at ripping people off their mistakes are referenced at every turn. But a Scientist screws up he is free to play a month later.”

“XL the hubbard curve I mentioned has been 100% right give or take a year or so. It wasnt based on quack science or political aims but was based on proven oil reserves and sound math. They did not predict the end of usable oil in 80 but rather that per capita oil production would peak then. They also predicted sharp price increases after 2000 due to declining production. In 2008 opec is predicted to have control over 50% of all the exportable oil. Finally the curve predicts a sharp decling in per capita production from 2012 to 2020 and the end of usable oil by 2032 or so. China's new industrial growth can only speed the process up.

Oil isnt the only problem. Natural gas , Food and water are becoming a problem as well. We are currently pumping 25% more water out of the deep aquifers then is being replaced and top soil is being lost from our good farm lands at about 2% a year. If you were paying attention to the ice core data you would also know that this is the longest warm period known and we are overdue for an ice age.

To me global warming is just a distration from other problems that could be solved if we choose to do so.


On the hydrogen side of things I was running figures on how much I would have to make and store to heat my house with and the amounts are beyond staggering. I never really realised that it took 8 million btu's and hydrogen is not a dense enough storage medium for the job. Time to move on to other options...”

“XL, you are right again , but without the equal application to both ends of the argument. The far extremes are always corrupted by the 'Law of Freaks', the bell curve never fails.”

“Don't forget peak gas (as in natural gas). The natural gas production in this country is falling now, too. That directly impacts propane since 50% of the propane supply comes from natural gas refining.

Lumberjack, consider solar thermal. You can get more than enough heat from the sun to eliminate the need to burn anything to warm your house. I've read article after article about people that have done it and it works well. I'm planning on going that route eventually.”

“Gee tech you think the falling natural gas production has anything to do with the fact that...WE AREN'T DRILLING FOR NEW SOURCES????HMMMMMMM
Okay I believe I have heard estimates of DEEP oil in the Gulf with bigger reserves than Saudi Arabia...and then there is THIS?

http://www.oilscenarios.info/pollyana.htm

Go for it...use this new "DISASTER OF BIBLICAL PROPORTIONS" to make it a law that SUCCESS is outlawed. (GEEZE (LOL))

I guess I got to ask Tech, with all this gloom and doom you guys put off....do you have like an account with the Suicide Hotline? I mean how can you live if life is so meaningless?”

“LMFAO - stovie thinks that because it's cold there's no warming going on - maybe you should stick to boats - you're probably going to need one yourself sooner rather than later.”

“You poor Libbies have no sense of humor.”

“XL, drilling for natural gas has had the same problem as drilling for oil - no new big finds for 30 years. The "big" finds in the Gulf are only drillable with recent technology and there is no guarantee that the oil is really there until they do drill a few holes. There is no big natural gas find anywhere in the US.

That site you reference generally supports my position, not yours. It even says that in 30 to 40 years we will hit peak oil. True! On a global scale. Hard data shows we hit peak oil in the 80's here in the US, and will in fact hit it globally within the next decade or two. Thanks for supporting my own beliefs, XL.

It also toys with the quack idea that oil may be generated by some form of life deep in the ground. If you want to provide that as proof of your position, you only make yourself look more like a quack than you already have.

No gloom and doom for me. I have high optimism that the other technologies we have on hand will supplant oil and gas within my lifetime. As I've said on other recent posts, I'm quite happy thank you. If you feel panic and depression because reality is setting in, seek help.”

“It is funny, SS. Unfortunately many quacks like XL will point to the current low temps as proof that global warming doesn't exist. Forgetting that GW will mostly happen at the poles, and not around here (12F rise at the poles vs. 1F rise at the equator).”

“Stovey - you think posting the same old joke from your right-wing blogs - it's cold..... global warming.... he he he - is funny, then maybe it's not the 'libbies' with the sense of humor problems.”

“On any number of fronts - breaking our reliance on fossil fuels should be the Manhatten Project and the Space Race for the 21st century. America needs to dedicate enough resources to it to solve the climate AND security bind it finds itself in.

Time to start worrying less about Exxon's profits and more about America's future.
last edited: 2/05/07 11:06:16 AM”

“Y2 - yes. Call it the new Manhatten Project, or new Space Race, that is the type of financial and time dedication we need over the next decade.”

“"As I've said on other recent posts, I'm quite happy thank you. If you feel panic and depression because reality is setting in, seek help.”
techntrek
12:00:48 PM
2/05/07

Yes, seek help!!”

“Find a cheap, clean and plentiful source of energy for people, combine that with trying to use less (more efficient appliances, cars and so on).

In the short term you cut the power of Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia off at the knees (reduce America's consumption year after year and oil prices will plummet).

Longer term you cut a big operating cost for every business making America more competitive globally.”

“The Socialist's sure do hate any viewpoint other than their current pet one.
I try to keep an open mind.”

“Do your blogs tell you that you have an open mind ss? You're hillarious, but not in the way you try to be.”

“Every day, every post and on and on and on.....it's not hillarious anymore.”

“My how tolerant you are not.
LOL


How much physics and mathematics have you had again, Y2?
LOL
last edited: 2/05/07 12:40:46 PM”

“SS, the same could be said about any one of us that isn't an environmental scientist, like the hundreds that have created and edited the latest UN report.

All of us depend on the opinion of those that are experts in their respective areas - neither of us are experts on the environment, we just have fun debating whether they are right or not. Your physics and mathematics do not mean anything compared to the educational background of those that have produced the UN report. We can use our education and intelligence to determine if their opinion is possibly wrong. Many including Bush now agree that they are not.”

“Part of what you say is true, tech.
The whole Global Warming thing has passed into the political rather than pure science, that's why I like to throw turds at people with no science background that are so sure only they have THE ANSWER.”

“Anyone notice how close the Enviorwackos are to the Wahabbist of the Islamo Fascist religion...in their view they are RIGHT because the feel (face it your "science" is built on Consensus) it is right. Any question or identification of anything wrong (like Muhammed was a drunken child molester) brings calls for you to be TAKEN OUT OF THE PROCESS!!!!!. (LOL)

They swarm when someone even makes a positive comment but if a scientist (heretofore in their "KLAN") says otherwise he is shunned and marked for removal.

Want to know why I find it so hard to believe? Because I saw the same misguided behavior in Race Hustlers (both white and black) and every other fringe element that has ever arisen. They have predictable rules:
1. SUPPORT...Support at all costs
2. NEVER QUESTION any order or commandment
3. TRUST only US
4. WE are not wrong, if we were wrong (say the 2006 hurricane season) it was not our fault
5. IF you question even a smidgen you are a hateful non follower and will be removed from life.”

“XL, you need to work on your delivery. 9 times out of ten you resort to name calling (Enviorwackos) and unrelated gibberish (Wahabbist of the Islamo Fascist religion...Muhammed was a drunken child molester...Race Hustlers) instead of providing intelligent response and debate of the actual topic. You have gotten worse in recent weeks. I used to understand what you were trying to say. Lately I've had to pick and choose your sentences to get anything useful. Maybe you have been fighting too many chemical fires without wearing your SCBA?

As for your assertion: "face it your "science" is built on Consensus". Uh, no. Its based on the censensus of thousands of scientists, who themselves base their opinion on hard scientific data. Its not about feelings, its about facts.”

“III. Common Mistakes in Applying the Scientific Method


As stated earlier, the scientific method attempts to minimize the influence of the scientist's bias on the outcome of an experiment. That is, when testing an hypothesis or a theory, the scientist may have a preference for one outcome or another, and it is important that this preference not bias the results or their interpretation. The most fundamental error is to mistake the hypothesis for an explanation of a phenomenon, without performing experimental tests. Sometimes "common sense" and "logic" tempt us into believing that no test is needed. There are numerous examples of this, dating from the Greek philosophers to the present day.


Another common mistake is to ignore or rule out data which do not support the hypothesis. Ideally, the experimenter is open to the possibility that the hypothesis is correct or incorrect. Sometimes, however, a scientist may have a strong belief that the hypothesis is true (or false), or feels internal or external pressure to get a specific result. In that case, there may be a psychological tendency to find "something wrong", such as systematic effects, with data which do not support the scientist's expectations, while data which do agree with those expectations may not be checked as carefully. The lesson is that all data must be handled in the same way.


Another common mistake arises from the failure to estimate quantitatively systematic errors (and all errors). There are many examples of discoveries which were missed by experimenters whose data contained a new phenomenon, but who explained it away as a systematic background. Conversely, there are many examples of alleged "new discoveries" which later proved to be due to systematic errors not accounted for by the "discoverers."


In a field where there is active experimentation and open communication among members of the scientific community, the biases of individuals or groups may cancel out, because experimental tests are repeated by different scientists who may have different biases. In addition, different types of experimental setups have different sources of systematic errors. Over a period spanning a variety of experimental tests (usually at least several years), a consensus develops in the community as to which experimental results have stood the test of time.


http://teacher.pas.rochester.edu/phy_labs/AppendixE/AppendixE.html

******************************************

Too bad the scientific method is not being used in the global warming debate...wait a minute.... there is no debate on global warming according to our men of science like Y2...never mind. LOL



It isn't about whether or not global warming it true, that doesn't matter. It is a means of promoting socialism and the global distribution of wealth. Kyoto is the manifesto and global warming is the new religion. This is just socialism.”

“man I love it when Stove throws in...(LOL) accurate logical evidence....

LOL if I prosecuted arson cases the way the Science community proves Manmade Global Warming Hysteria?.....(LOL)


"And the court awaits the anticipated HISSY from the left."”

“Your latest post was much better, thank you XL. Just remember to keep the SCBA on, OK?”

“SS - what you posted is exactly what the scientists have been doing. Where do you see that they haven't? You give a long quote about what the scientific method is (great), and then say they haven't been doing it for GW, but don't give the proof (not great). Show the proof so we can discuss it.

XL - SS proved what the scientific method is, he didn't prove that the GW scientists don't use it. I really hope you DON'T prosecute your cases like that, you would lose every time.”

“WOW...good hissy there tech.....

you know it still goes back to a hatered of the successful....I understand you see your life as basically a daily challenge to prove your worth...its okay dude you are good just as you are. (LOL)


And yes I agree the post comparing the Acutal to Scientific process shows the ACTUAL method the wackjobs....oops sorry "slightly misguided souls" who run the enviro crowd are doing...good to see you recognize truth....(LOL)”

“And the links to show where they didn't follow the scientific method, SS? I don't think you have that kind of proof, but I was hoping to discuss it with you. Oh well, another unsupported statement.”

“Climate research is made difficult by the large scale, long time periods, and complex processes which govern climate. It is generally accepted that climate is governed by differential equations based on physical laws, but what, exactly, are these equations, and what can be concluded from them, is still subject to debate. Climate is sometimes modeled as a stochastic process but this is generally accepted as an approximation to processes that are otherwise too complicated to analyze. - wikipedia”

“"..you know it still goes back to a hatered of the successful...."

Not at all, but I do have a pity for the illiterate.

Gee whiz, I wish I worked 80 hours a week.
Then I could have an excuse for neglecting my family.”

“Well Marky Mark I can understand that...I mean a "male" can probably only take so much of the neutering effect of being Mr. Beeyotch (LOL). I wish I knew someone who was in that situation so he could advise you what to do....I guess the first step would be cut the apron strings and go get a real job. (LOL)..Unless you can't get the chain around your neck off...then I guess you are stuck where you are.”

“tech, tech, tech......
I'm just here to throw turds, like Y2. ;-)”

“Try harder please SS.

All you've done is cut and paste and general piece on scientific method offering NOTHING more to the argument - please find some relevant facts - and not just you don't like 'libbies' and that 'silly libbies' seem to support the concept of global warming - though this seems to be the basis of everything you say.

Tech is right - the climatologists have been applying proper sceintific mothed, and up to now have been wary about saying for sure that humans are influencing the climate, prefering to only say it's likely.

I think the latest report suggests they are about 90% sure that humans are influencing the climate. But I'm busy now, so I suggest you loook it up.
You don't even pay attention do you.

And my Maths background - actually pretty strong, A-level in pure and applied maths (you'll need to look that up too), physics - well I've done some physics, but admittedly that's to a basic level.”

“Marko - bingo. Let's all work 40 hours of overtime and STILL only make $60K a year. And never see our kids grow up or kiss our wives. Yeah, that's why when all my friends went to work during the dot.com boom 7 years ago making $100K, I went to work for the gubment for $27K. They thought I was crazy, but I went home after 40 hours - they were pulling 80-100 hour weeks. Eventually most of them either had their pay cut in half (one was lucky and it was only cut by 2/3), or they were "excessed". I think I made the smart choice. XL's doing "45 hours by Wednesday" is an example of a wasted life.

I work to live not live to work.

XL - even more name calling. Sorry you live such a sad life you are only happy when you are throwing sticks and stones at others. Sad, sad, sad. Obviously Marko is HAPPY with his life and what he makes and how me makes it. Great! Its called "self actualization". Go ahead, look up the big $10 phrase that you know nothing about, I'll wait. People like Marko and myself have achieved that, but by the tone and content of your postings I doubt you have. So sorry.”

“And this is what I was doing at 16.

go have a looksee

http://www.mathsrevision.net/alevel/ocrspecimen.pdf

I have no idea what they hell they are talking about now though.”

“Anyhow, not claiming to be nobel prize-winner or anything, it's pretty basic stuff, but I'm not claiming to have any more than a loose grasp of some of the concepts involved - so I therefore listen to those who study the matter, kind of like I listen to my doctor when I'm sick.

And in this instance, the experts are pretty well all saying the same thing.”

“LOL
What part of "I'm just here to throw turds" is Y2 incapable of understanding?”

“Stovey, everyone knows you throw turds. It's just understood; it's who you are.”

“For 2 bucks you can get Cafe Au Lait at Cafe Du Monde with beignets.”
Bateauxdriver
12:51:13 AM
2/04/07

So how is Cafe du Monde doing now after Katrina? (A crazy ex-g.f. of mine worked there. I have quite a set of memories of visiting that place with her the two times I went to N.O. for Mardi Gras and her old home week with her.)”