Pakistan Earth Quake

“Hey, does anyone else remember when all the Islam-o-fascists were saying New Orleans was punishment from Allah? Wonder what they’re saying now?”

“Pakistan: The Earthquake's Political Aftershocks
October 10, 2005 21 42 GMT

Summary

The disputed region of Kashmir has been transformed into a scene of
devastation and helplessness as the death toll from a massive
earthquake surpassed 40,000 on Oct. 10. The earthquake aftermath
heralds significant challenges for Indian-Pakistani relations and for
Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf's ability to tame domestic
dissatisfaction with slow relief efforts. On a strategic level, the
natural disaster has the potential to aid U.S. intelligence
operations in the affected region and hamper Kashmir-based militants'
capabilities.

Analysis

More than 40,000 people were reported dead Oct. 10 after a 7.6-
magnitude earthquake struck the South Asian subcontinent Oct. 8. The
most hard-hit areas were in Kashmir and Pakistan's North-West
Frontier Province (NWFP), where entire villages and cities have been
swallowed in debris.

A common crisis could strengthen relations between rival countries
India and Pakistan, which already are on the path toward
normalization. Both sides, however, will proceed cautiously in the
earthquake's aftermath to avoid losing ground politically on the
Kashmir dispute. National relief efforts are generally carried out by
a country's military personnel. For this reason, it is no wonder that
Pakistan would be wary of India's rapid response to Pakistani
President Gen. Pervez Musharraf's urgent call for assistance from
international donors. Although Pakistan would welcome aid in the form
of supplies airlifted from India, it is not too keen on the idea of
Indian troops crossing over onto Pakistani soil.

The highly contentious Line of Control (LoC) that separates Indian-
and Pakistani-administered Kashmir is a cease-fire line and not a
clearly demarcated international border -- a further complication for
New Delhi and Islamabad, whose troops and military installments along
the LoC have been severely disrupted. Final status talks on resolving
the Kashmir dispute are still a long way off, but Pakistan has long
rejected an Indian proposal to make the LoC a permanent border,
favoring a redrawn border that would give Pakistan control over
additional Muslim majority areas currently under Indian control.
India categorically opposes this idea. The earthquake has produced a
highly unsettling effect on the current political arrangement, but
India and Pakistan will try to prevent each other from taking
advantage of the situation to encroach on each other's territory.

Discontent with the government response to the earthquake will lead
to more public dissatisfaction with Musharraf's government -- a
development that could spell trouble for the country's military
ruler. The earthquake is essentially Musharraf's Hurricane Katrina,
in terms of the amount of domestic dissent produced by a national
tragedy. That said, the absence of any viable political opposition
force that can take this situation and leverage it in its favor will
allow Musharraf the breathing space he needs to get over this hurdle.
Musharraf's political allies routed opposition forces -- both secular
and Islamist -- in the recently held local elections. There could be
truth to opposition allegations that the government's victory in
these elections was due to rigging and disingenuous pre-poll
electoral engineering -- but the fact that the opposition has not
been able to do anything about the allegations speaks volumes about
its impotency. Most Pakistanis view Musharraf's regime as the best
the country has, and do not wish to tamper with the status quo.
Furthermore, given the sensitivity of the humanitarian cost, no
political group would want to be seen trying to use the situation to
rack up political mileage.

There are strong indications that the earthquake has severely
hampered Kashmir-based militant groups' capabilities. Jamaat-ud-Dawa,
a derivative of outlawed militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba, reported
Oct. 9 that the organization's mosques, hospitals and Islamic
seminaries had been wiped out by the earthquake.

Of extreme geopolitical significance is the possibility that this
natural disaster has taken out key members of the al Qaeda apex
believed to be hiding out in Pakistan's NWFP. U.S. intelligence
forces in the country might also be able to use the relief effort as
a way to expand their intelligence-gathering in ongoing joint
operations with Pakistani troops against al Qaeda strongholds.

The October earthquake marks the third geopolitically significant
natural disaster in less than a year, after the December 2004 tsunami
and Hurricane Katrina. Already under pressure from Washington to take
the reins in rooting out al Qaeda, Musharraf now faces the litmus
test of holding his ground on Kashmir and taming internal dissent in
the aftermath of the earthquake.”

“Geopolitical Diary: Monday, Oct. 10, 2005
October 10, 2005 10 30 GMT

At least 20,000 and perhaps as many as 40,000 people have been killed
in a massive earthquake -- registering 7.6 on the Richter scale --
that epicentered about 55 miles northeast of Islamabad, Pakistan, in
the Kashmir region, early Oct. 8. Though we do not normally concern
ourselves with natural disasters, there are a few -- with Hurricane
Katrina the quintessential example -- that can be viewed as
geopolitical events; this weekend's earthquake in South Asia is
potentially another such event.

There are several reasons for this -- not least of which is the fact
that the killer temblor struck in the area where top al Qaeda leaders
are believed to be hiding. The Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) is
near the epicenter, and U.S. officials have not missed that
significance; however, Washington says it has no intelligence on
whether Osama bin Laden was killed or injured in the earthquake.

At any rate, given the sensitivities within the region, the
earthquake poses several possible outcome for al Qaeda and its allies
in Pakistan, each carrying equally possible and unique implications
for global security:

1. Al Qaeda's senior leaders -- like thousands of others in the
region -- perished, crushed beneath their dwellings.
2. Al Qaeda's leaders survived the quake but have been operationally
incapacitated.
3. The group's global leadership was eliminated, but the lower-
echelon network remains intact.
4. Both the leaders and their facilities escaped the devastation.

First, it is important to reiterate why we believe al Qaeda leaders
are likely to be taking refuge specifically in the northern districts
of the NWFP: It is a region with a fiercely conservative (religious/
tribal) culture and extremely difficult terrain, which would make for
a relatively friendly environment for militants dispersing from
Afghanistan. Moreover, it has relatively decent communications
facilities -- and as we have seen, al Qaeda has kept up a regular
stream of video and audio recordings during the past four years.

Having said that, we note reports that hundreds of Pakistani and
Indian troops manning the Line of Control in mountainous Kashmir were
buried beneath tons of earth when the earthquake struck. Because al
Qaeda's facilities likely would be camouflaged by the mountainous
terrain, it is quite possible that the network's leaders met a
similar fate. In fact, given that their dwellings probably would be
more makeshift than the military bunkers established by Islamabad and
New Delhi, the likelihood that such physical damage occurred is quite
high.

Whether al Qaeda needs the central leadership supplied by such
figures as Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri in order to continue
with operations or to be an effective force is a matter of much
debate. But at the very least, the demise of these leaders -- in an
unforeseen natural disaster -- could be a welcome resolution to some
pressing political problems, particularly for President Gen. Pervez
Musharraf.

Suppose only al Qaeda's facilities have been destroyed, but the
leadership survived? This also would affect the network: Like turtles
without shells, the leaders would be more vulnerable and considerably
weakened -- perhaps fatally, given their global "most wanted" status.

Under Scenarios 3 and 4, it would be difficult to prove a
demonstrable change from the current situation -- at least in the
near term. Regional leaders, such as Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, and cells
in other regions are quite capable of planning and carrying out at
least small-scale attacks without direct guidance from bin Laden or
al-Zawahiri, and this could be expected to continue. Of course,
should there be a significant decline in communications or global
operations over time, some of the questions that plague analysts --
concerning the true nature of relations between al Qaeda's recognized
central leaders and operatives around the world -- could come nearer
to being answered.

For U.S. and Pakistani authorities, the worst possible outcome is,
obviously, the fourth scenario - full, intact survival. Because
relief workers are still struggling to reach some of the affected
regions -- and the Pakistani military will be preoccupied with relief
and reconstruction efforts for quite some time -- the quake could
have purchased al Qaeda's leaders (again, assuming they survived)
time and space that could result in improved planning and striking
capabilities.

From an intelligence standpoint, it will be frustratingly difficult
to find the answers to these questions -- and quite possible that the
answers will not be found. Nearly 48 hours after the quake struck,
there still could be tens of thousands of people buried beneath the
rubble, and it easily could be days before relief workers reach them.
The slowness of that response, coupled with the fact that searchers
are not likely to visit the sites of any camouflaged, secret habitats
(assuming they existed), opens up a universe of speculation.

In all likelihood, the only way that speculation could be put to rest
is for al Qaeda to issue a fresh statement, offering proof that bin
Laden or al-Zawahiri managed to survive. But whether such a statement
ever is issued will depend entirely on whether it lies within both
the leadership's capabilities -- and its interests -- to do so.”

“****
last edited: 10/11/05 9:23:30 AM”

“40,00 dead. Unbelievably horrible. That is a bad enough thing in a country like ours but in a backasswards country like Pakistan? And of course everyone is sending money and of course the Islamic nations are sending jack shlt.”

“Bush is to blame. He was too slow to react to this and didn't send enough money or troops. He hates Pakistanis. He could have warned them this was coming. It's also due to global warming, which is also Bush's fault.”

“"And of course everyone is sending money and of course the Islamic nations are sending jack shlt.”
-FrankeNigal



KUWAIT CITY: Gulf states have offered emergency aid, including yesterday’s offer of $100m each from Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, to Pakistan and other countries struck by a massive earthquake.

Kuwait said half of the amount will be offered in the form of relief assistance while the other $50m will be used to repair infrastructure damaged by the quake.

Also, UAE President H H Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan “ordered the allocation of $100m in emergency relief assistance and in order to build houses for the victims of the earthquake,” said the state news agency Wam.

In a subsequent dispatch, Wam said that Sheikh Khalifa also ordered UAE armed forces to set up makeshift hospitals in Pakistani areas to provide medical treatment and medicines for the victims.

Saudi, Yemen and Bahrain have also pledged to provide immediate humanitarian assistance to Pakistan through their Red Crescent organizations.

Appeals for private donations in the Gulf have also been made. “A total of $4.3m has so far been collected in a current account which was opened yesterday in the United Arab Emirates,” Pakistani consulate spokesman Zafer Iqbal said.

http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/Display_news.asp?section=World_News&month=October2005&file=World_News200510114436.xml”

“Sorry to dispute your hateful delusions.”

“Where's the rest of the muslim countries? This is but a fraction of the Islamic world. Your point is not made Mr. Google.”

“the earth is angry.”