A Neocon Joins the Reality Based Communi ty

“Francis Fukuyama, neoconservative author of "The End of History and the Last Man" affiliated with the neocon think tank Project for the New American Century, denounces neoconservatism:

After Neoconservatism

By FRANCIS FUKUYAMA

As we approach the third anniversary of the onset of the Iraq war, it seems very unlikely that history will judge either the intervention itself or the ideas animating it kindly. By invading Iraq, the Bush administration created a self-fulfilling prophecy: Iraq has now replaced Afghanistan as a magnet, a training ground and an operational base for jihadist terrorists, with plenty of American targets to shoot at. The United States still has a chance of creating a Shiite-dominated democratic Iraq, but the new government will be very weak for years to come; the resulting power vacuum will invite outside influence from all of Iraq's neighbors, including Iran. There are clear benefits to the Iraqi people from the removal of Saddam Hussein's dictatorship, and perhaps some positive spillover effects in Lebanon and Syria. But it is very hard to see how these developments in themselves justify the blood and treasure that the United States has spent on the project to this point.

The so-called Bush Doctrine that set the framework for the administration's first term is now in shambles. The doctrine (elaborated, among other places, in the 2002 National Security Strategy of the United States) argued that, in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks, America would have to launch periodic preventive wars to defend itself against rogue states and terrorists with weapons of mass destruction; that it would do this alone, if necessary; and that it would work to democratize the greater Middle East as a long-term solution to the terrorist problem. But successful pre-emption depends on the ability to predict the future accurately and on good intelligence, which was not forthcoming, while America's perceived unilateralism has isolated it as never before. It is not surprising that in its second term, the administration has been distancing itself from these policies and is in the process of rewriting the National Security Strategy document.

read on”

“Reality Based Community?????????

Libbies???????

MOOOOOOOOOOHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!
Thanks for the laugh! :-)
last edited: 2/21/06 12:19:33 PM”

“Like sands through the hourglass....so are the Days of Our Lives.

1-800-DRLAURA”

“Interesting read. Fukyomomma jumps to a lot of conclusions (prolly using Tom Smykowski's mat), tho.”

“Great theory....kinda like "If we challenge the Soviet Union they will destroy us."

The problem is that policy is rated in the short run, but can only truly be evaluated in the long run.

In 1981 I remember a briefing regarding the Soviet (Threat) nations. The officer giving the briefing was a Carter protoge'. He kept giving us the gloom and doom of defeating the Soviet Bloc. He theorized that if we went ahead with the Strategic Defense initiative and other plans we would push the Soviet Union to a point where they would be unable to avoid WAR.

Want to know how that turned out? Well the kicker was that despite the left's best efforts we brought the Evil Empire down.
Case in point, Nicaragua. Despite the best efforts of Fort Worthless Jim Wright (the Sleazer of the House) Nicuragua held free (mostly free) elections. At the time fighting a "low impact" insurgency campaign was challenged by leftist and "Vietnam again" threats.....BUT WE WON”

“I think it’s worth reading for the history of neoconservative thought if nothing else.

I do think its an important essay, especially the idea that democracy isn't something that can be imposed, or a natural state absent authoritarian government, but is something that has to grow from within a country. I agree with his conclusion that we will have to be more opportunistic in supporting societies that have reached that point.

What conclusions do you think he leapt to mutt?”

“we brought the Evil Empire down

And thus started a new era. An era the History books will undoubtedly call...

PAX AMERICANA!”

“I can see your point Violin, I mean a society which is more of less set up on a cult of the Ruler as GOD could never become a democracy in even four or five decades. Or a nation which has for all intents and purposes been successful when it was a military dictatorship (or monarchy). Yeah there are is no way we could turn these countries into democracies...

Japan.....by 1954

Germany...by 1950”

“Fukyomomma jumps to a lot of conclusions - you're telling me the neocons didn't ahead of the war?”

“The Soviet Union was down and out way before any of the above took place. Just another case of more misinformation for years to keep the tax money flowing.”

“And Thank God Democracy reigns in the former Soviet Union!”

“salebored....how do you figure "down and out"?”

“I think the Iraq thing was a noble attempt at doing the right thing, but with so many wonderful soldiers consistently dying, and the INCREDIBLE expense (is it nearing $400 billion yet? Yowch!), I wonder in hindsight if it was the right thing to do. Of course you never know for sure going in, so I don't blame those who thought we should (I don't play that absurd after-the-facts blame game), but when I see serious domestic programs being cut for no funds, things that cost in the low billions, then I look at the astronimcal cost of this Iraq war, I'm thinking this investment, even from just a financial standpoint, is outrageously high even for a wealthy superpower like us. And that's not taking into account the loss of lives, of which I cringe with sadness knowing some wife or husband or parent is going to get a phone call that day. No matter how you slice it, and whether it's necessary or not, war is ugly. I'm not sure if this fits into this discussion, but that's never stopped me before! :^D”

“Well I had copied several extracts from this article with the intent of addressing them individually...and then we had a power surge which destroyed my unsaved (of course!) text. I don't really wanna wade through that again, sorry if that sounds like a cop-out.

I agree with Mutt though that Fukuyama treats certain assumptions as historical fact.

First, that it is widely accepted that the Iraq war is a "failure." I think enough Americans and Iraqis are still supportive of the military and political process in Iraq, that it is premature to declare it a failure. It is hard to estimate how much further we could have progressed if the US and the world had presented a more united front in support of democratic action in Iraq, and against the insurgency (mainly Baathist dead-enders, Sunni radicals, and Al Qaeda).

Second, that the world has turned against Americans. I agree that the elite opinion leaders of Europe, and many Middle Eastern despots who fear the Islamist political movement, have been very critical of the US' actions in Iraq. However, there are many others in Europe who are becoming more supportive of the US War on Terror as a result of the "cartoon wars" and assorted riots, fatwas, and bombings. Democratic protesters in Lebanon and former Soviet holdings have undoubtedly been encouraged by our actions against dictatorial leaders.

Third, that there is some perfect Wilsonian "middle ground", where America can use its influence to induce cooperation from our so-called allies, and intimidate our enemies, without the use of military force. I agree that home-grown resistance against dictators is preferable to US military intervention, for obvious reasons. It seems at some point though, we must be willing to actually use our big stick rather than just make idle threats, impose economic sanctions, or sic the feared UN Security Council on our outspoken enemies around the world.

Fourth, that any of America's objectives in the War on Terror can be accomplished without inflaming Islamists around the world. It seems obvious to me that there is no compromising with people who would kill and destroy over a dozen CARTOONS. How can there ever be any rational dialogue with the likes of them? If anything we should have been more ruthless in some cases than we have been. I am no advocate of thoughtless killing, but judicious killing does get the message across at times, and can prevent widespread killing later on. Don't think there won't be widespread killing if Iran ever decides to use its "hypothetical" nukes, or some jihadi brings smallpox to the US or Europe. Even Chirac said he would retaliate in kind if someone used a nuclear weapon against France. The notion that there is some approach a Western nation could take (aside from converting to Islam, killing all the Jews, and instituting Sharia law) that would not provoke radical Islamists around the world, is ridiculous.”

““And Thank God Democracy reigns in the former Soviet Union!”

bearmagnet



Heard a good one re: Putin the other day....

"You can take the boy out of the KGB, but you can't take the KGB out of the boy."




Here's a contribution from a reality-based Conservative you might enjoy...

Bruce Bartlett   

and his latest book... Impostor : How George W. Bush Bankrupted America and Betrayed the Reagan Legacy”

“I thought it was "You can take the boy out of the church but ya can't take the priest out of the boy."?”

“Nigal,....try a crowbar, or do like I do and throw water on em.”

“Oh Tilt, I totally agree...the Bush bunch is part of the Old Blue Blood Republicans. They HATED REAGAN with a passion. My Father is one of them....GOD HE HATED REAGAN...but the men he supported are just...like eating Bean curd...no taste.”

“I saw that violin started this thread, and saw the phrase "reality based community" in the title. Kinda made me smile. What in the world would he know about reality?

Just a random thought I had to share.”

“That's pretty... like deep, man... you know?”

“Like far flippin out!”

“Violin (must come to defense here) has his views...reality is often relative. It comes from our experience and beliefs....I do not condemn opposing beliefs...rather I ask that there be frank discussion.”

“"I do not condemn opposing beliefs...rather I ask that there be frank discussion.”

Will a cut and paste do?”

“Darnit Nigal I said A FRANK discussion...personally I like Armour...but I can go with Ballpark too. How bout you?”

“Finally, a dating service for you people! (get some, Mutt)

Link”

“Haha!”

“Damn Bill Maher is lame. He's one of those comedians turned political "expert" who just says whatever is the new thing to be edgy.”

“LOL....pretty good...his writers are on the pipe again aren't they?”

“That's funny as Klansmen lighting farts at a cross burning!!

It looks like there may be hope for some of you lonely and bitter neo-cons!”

“Not lonely, not bitter...how can you be bitter when you see your ideals working everyday.”

“Your ideals are death and destruction to non-white, non-Xians??

Wicked cool!

I'm glad its workin' out for you!”

“Never said that....I believe in protecting my Country (America by the way). I realize there is a time when you have to do something.”

“Looks like MarkO has been hitting the bottle or smoke this evenning. He's not making any sense.”

“Posts that encourage the use of illegal substance.

Watch it there GreaySpoon, you're skating close to the edge!”

“MarkO, you really should work on your reading competency.
Reading Is Fundamental.

Pick up one of those books you shelve and READ. It will help you greatly.”

“More incoherent blather.

Ha ha........lonely?
Looking for attention?

Reality isn't your strong suit, eh?”

“For the nice family man you claim to be, you sure spend a lot of time being angry on TT.
[VBG]”

“Dum dum dum dum dee doo wah....
last edited: 10/17/06 10:32:03 PM”

“Yes you are and yes you do....”

“F
Dum-dum-dum-dumby-doo-wah

Gm
Ooh-yay-yay-yay-yeah

Bb C7
Oh-oh-oh-oh-wah

F C7
Only the lonely

F
Only the lonely”

“Huh, someone forgot to tell me. I just celebrated my 17th anniversary and I credit the success of my marriage on the same values that lead me to be a conservative.”

“21 and counting.....Course this is my third marriage.

First wife died from eating poisoned mushrooms.

Second wife died from what the coroner said was a Sharp blow to the head....she wouldn't eat the mushrooms (LOL)”

“It'll be 25 years for me in November and my success has nothing to do with politics.

All you need is love

Ba-ba-ba-ba-ba

All you need is love

Ba-ba-ba-ba-ba

All you need is love

Ba-ba-ba-ba-ba

Love is all you need

A bit of backpacking and rock and roll don't hurt...........neither.”

“Of course sanity is a dang good ingredient as well.”

“John could have used Kevlar.....(one down three to go one down three to go ) LOL...actually I think it is Two down two to go.....”

“Kevlar or no guns in the hands of the criminally insane.....

What a woild, what a woild....”

“moichidising moichindising...thats where the real money is made.”

““It'll be 25 years for me in November and my success has nothing to do with politics."

I didn't mean to imply it was about politics. It's about the values I have which are the same ones that make conservative.”

“LOL
Nine years of marriage was plenty for me!”