Tropical Storm Dean

“http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704.html

something to keep an eye on!!!!”

“Wahahahahah....the history targets...2005..guess the horror of 2006 is too fresh on their minds....”

“Someone fed viagra to the hurricane thread so i will post this to this thread to:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=747&tstamp=200708

Track forecast
Two major models--the ECMWF and NOGAPS--stubbornly refuse to develop Dean at all. These models are in great likelihood wrong. The GFS, UKMET, and new HWRF model all develop Dean into a hurricane that threatens the central and northern Lesser Antilles Islands Friday or Saturday. The big question is how strong the trough of low pressure predicted to pass north of TD 4 on Saturday will be. If the trough is strong enough, it may be able to pull TD 4 far enough north so that it misses the Lesser Antilles. Another big question is, will the trough spawn a cut-off upper-level low pressure system off the Southeast coast of the U.S.? If so, this feature could act to steer TD 4 on a more northerly track early next week, increasing the threat to New England and the mid-Atlantic coast. If not, a high pressure ridge is expected to build in, forcing TD 4 westward into Florida. It's far too early to know which of these scenarios might occur. In any case, there is a significant possibility that TD 4 will hit the U.S. as a hurricane, and possibly a major hurricane. This could happen as early as Tuesday August 21. Of course, Dean could also stay farther south in the Caribbean, as forecast by the UKMET model, and eventually track into the Gulf of Mexico.””

“They have tracked this storm and they do know where it's going...

"Not only are we going to New Hampshire ... we're going to South Carolina and Oklahoma and Arizona and North Dakota and New Mexico, and we're going to California and Texas and New York! And we're going to South Dakota and Oregon and Washington and Michigan. And then we're going to Washington, D.C. to take back the White House, Yeeeeeaaaaaargh!"”

“Oh, hummm, the eyes of Texas are upon you. It's way too early, but thanks for the alert! And welcome to the early arrivals of the band. I hope you can keep your horns dry.

BTW, you actually were late. People in Florida knew about this developing situation yesterday.”

“sheesh...all I said was to keep an eye on it....”

“I've been watching Dean develope for a few days now. Not to mention Erin which is just a rain event. Dean looks like he may become the real deal though. All eyes from the Yucatan to the FLA Keys should watch closely.

By the way Stovie if this thing should come your way (I hope not). But if it looks that way by say Sunday. I can come over to give you a hand on Monday. We should have a good fix on this storm by then. I'm gonna email you my phone number just in case. I can be there in 2 hours.”

“I wish Erin had come our way. We need the rain.

It seems like these storms that come off Jamaica and then turn north between Cuba and the Yucatan just turn into killers.”

“LOL...@Hyway....looks like MEHICO is the main target...good thing all their people have already evacuated to the US.”

“Watch what you which for Dayhiker. The atmospherics may not be the same, but Dean is plowing the exact waters that Ivan did in 2004.”

“Not that it means much this early but check out the GFDL model.

Open the page and hit FWD to set the model in motion.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2007081606-dean04l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation”

“Good thing we haven't spent a bunch of money fixing New Orleans ...right?”

“wunderground has a cool animation of the storm too.”

“Models can be wrong but the GFDL has updated and it projects a Cat 5 hurricane south of Louisiana next week.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2007081612-dean04l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation”

“Stove...got a place at the lake if you need it....this is Augusta where even Natural Disasters won't come (LOL)”

“I don't like that GFDL model, if that comes to pass I made need to go visit family in North Texas in about a week.”

“http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200511.asp?feature=satellite

wow that was Katrina.....HUGE!!!”

“http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at20049.asp?feature=satellite

and Ivan.....”

“Way to early to panic. They don't know where this thing is going.

Div, y'all have a place to run to if it comes your way?

I'll be up with the folks if it comes anywhere near me.”

“Category 2, wind 85 mph.”

“

T.S. Erin





T.S. Dean

NASA Hurricane Resource Page

GOES Master Scrapbook
(watch out for that 74 MB GIF)”

“ChuckD the updated GFDL has the storm very near you, Houston to Lake Charles area. Rita knows the area well. Brownsville to Biloxi should watch closely. Like Stovie said there is no need for panic. We should however have our plan in order for a smooth evac if necessary. We flood here when a frog takes a leak so I always get the wife and kids to a relative up north early. More likely than not I'll be at work. Good luck.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2007081700-dean04l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation”

“Everybody be safe!
Leave before the storm if you're near the path.”

“bateaux - I was wishing Erin was coming this way, not Dean, it was obvious then that Dean would get big.”

“Turn the sound up!

http://hurricanedeanpath.ytmnd.com/”

“I got about 5 inches of rain from Erin so far, chance for more this afternoon.

I'm about 75 miles from the coast, so storm surge shouldn't be a problem, just getting everything ready to board up windows and move things out of the yard.”

“I liked the scream, LOL.”

“batten down the trailer doors!”

“Looks like rain all over!”

“Nowslimmer.....FLOYD

”

““batten down the trailer doors!”
hikerboy
11:58:30 AM
8/17/07

I sure hope the poor people of New Orleans living in FEMA trailers can batten them down, violin.
last edited: 8/17/07 10:18:45 AM”

“It's not the doors you need to worry about Violin. It's holding the trailer down to their non-existant foundation. It may be funny to you but picture Dorothy's house in the Wizard of Oz. Picture your family in that situation. Lots of these folks are dang glad to have that trailer. Glad you're blessed with more.”

“GFDL update not good. All of the TX coast and parts of the LA coast should go under the cone tonight. We've got the weekend to get ready.

Here is the latest model:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2007081712-dean04l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation”

“The Java Animation doesn't work for me.”

“I live up in the air on stilts (Just in case any of you doubted I was Cajun). Who know stilts may be better, lets the winds go under as well.

”

“Send the rain this way, dangit!”

“Gasoline Futures!

Go Dean, Go!

(What?!...so I'm looking to the bright side and planning for my families future...is that BAD?!)”

“Stove I sent you an email of the last frame of the GFDL model”

“Anybody Wanna buy a boat? We are having a pre-Dean sale on a Chaparral 2330 SS.

http://www.louisianasportsman.com/classifieds.php?sec=classifieds&act=full&adID=23095#pictures47742”

“Naw, I think my boating days may be over for at least a year, maybe for good. My balance is off, due to the stroke.”

“So, Kevin...ya got that neat yeller WS boat up for sale yet?...wha'cha askin?”

“No, I'm still hopeing the arm will get better.”

“Me too, I'm jus' playin' here...REALLY pulling for you.

Still willing to come and get you for the Basic Skills Trip if you decide you want to go....”

“I know, ST.
I might sell my favorite sailboat. Too much moving around required to sail it.
It's a 1993 Hunter 23.5. It's still worth about 11K.
last edited: 8/17/07 12:32:05 PM”

“Stove...the offer is still open for the Farm if you need it.”

“Thanks, but I have a place.”