Georgia on my mind

“Anybody following this story?


(Yesterday while carpooling to a day hike, I was b---, err... griping about how big an opening the US had left for Russia and China to expand their spheres of influence.)
last edited: 8/10/08 3:14:56 PM”

“maybe Obama could negotiate with the Russians? No blood for oil. Let 'em have it, right?”

“USA just beat Georgia in boxing.

They're getting it from all sides.”

“I was away all weekend and don't know what happened but I did see Russia sent in troops to Georgia and Bush made us look stupid for condemning Russia's lack of restraint.”

“If you're referring to hypocrisy, it's not apples for apples. Not even close.”

“I wasn't comparing it to anything. I just don't think we have much room to tell other countries what to do. It's their business. The world doesn't have to come to us and get our stamp of approval for everything.”

“They need our stamp of disapproval.”

“The masters horse has Eden the last of the apples.”

“"I just don't think we have much room to tell other countries what to do." - Nigal

How so?

We don't have a right to defend our allies?

We don't have the ability?

??”

“I just don't think we have much room to tell other countries what to do. It's their business. - Nigal

”

“griping about how big an opening the US had left for Russia and China to expand their spheres of influence. -pedXing

It's always Bush's fault, isn't it. By god if we weren't held up in Iraq and A-stan, we'd have wooped those Russians Reeeaaaaaal Goood!

edit: I bet Obama would've bloodied the Bear's nose. *snicker*
last edited: 8/11/08 6:21:23 AM”

“Bush said if Russia doesn't nock it off he's gonna send troops into Atlanta.”

“thrifty - that's actually pretty darn funny!! lol”

“i'm just quoting what he said”

“griping about how big an opening the US had left for Russia and China to expand their spheres of influence. - pedXing

A serious response this time, Europe shares a big portion of the "blame": Kosovo. 'nuff said.

What I find amusing is the Russians drawing a parallel drawn between Ossetia and Grenada.
last edited: 8/11/08 6:48:27 AM”

“Clearly, the only thing that could bring this whole matter to an end is a stern letter of condemnation from the United Nations. The more stern, the better.”

“Oh I get it - the fact that Russia can invade (though it seems there was some provocations) an American ally, member of the 'coalition of the willing', with a desire to join nato - and that there's absolutely nothing that America can do is some sort of example of the success of American foreign policy is it?

And yes there is some connection to Kosovo - but this has been building for some time. Nationalism is a strong political force in Russia, and there's just not any other place for this to express itself.

The old central asian Republicans are closely linked to Moscow - the Baltic States have joined nato, Belarus is pro-Moscow - which Ukraine would be a much larger conflict.


The question is whether Russia is overplaying its hand on the back of the strength in oil prices.”

“... speaking of Chamberlain ...”

“unable to keep up with the conversation I see Sargie.”

“is some sort of example of the success of American foreign policy is it - Y2

Uh, who said it was an example of success?”

“he's having trouble keeping up with the conversation Mutt.

ignore the peace-nik troll from another land.”

“OMG - I'm agreeing with Bacpac vs. Nigal. They do need our stamp of disapproval. Georgia is not just an independent country, it's a significant US ally in the area and a contributor of forces in Iraq. This means the humiliation of Georgia, or worse, regime change is a major slap in the face to the US.

The problem is how do we make our stamp of disapproval mean anything? With Oil prices what they are in a fragile market, Russia doesn't have to care what non-military steps the US or Europe want to take. We've already been expanding NATO and disregarding their security concerns in many ways.


I don't blame Bush first, but yes our influence has declined dramatically and Russia has been badly mishandled. US power and influence is waning - challenging Carter era lows.

Biggest blame has to go to Putin and Saakashvili. Of course Putin has to be pleased right now. Howls of western protest only add to the perception that Russia is winning a round vs. the US and NATO.
There were definitely massive miscalculation on Saakashvili's part. In retrospect, perhaps the skirmishes between South Osetia and Georgia were a deliberate provocation worked out with Russia in advance or maybe it was an Osetian move knowing the big bad bear would help them out - that Putin wouldn't stand by if Georgia started to push too hard. But, right now, it looks like Saakashvilli played into someone's hands.



I'm not sure what exactly you are pointing to with Kosovo, but the US and NATO and the EU have been thumbing their nose at Russia. I'm not sure I disagree with any of what they did, but certainly you have to be prepared for ruthless counter moves by a resurgent Russia with an old KGB guy calling the shots.”

“btw y2, I find your "conversations" (as YOU call them) about as intellectually stimulating as 'The Gong Show'.”

““Oh I get it - the fact that Russia can invade (though it seems there was some provocations)
Y2
12:20:39 PM
8/11/08

Y2 - if you look at the past few weeks, its not clear where the provocations started. There has been escalations for a while, with accusations from both sides. At the moment, I'm thinking the provocations came from the Russian/Osetian side and Georgia took the bait.

My guess is that Russia won't play their hand. If there isn't a coup against Saakashvili, they will hold out for guarantees of non-agression vs. the break away Georgian territories and watch them grab back a few bits of additional Georgian turf and then withdraw. They will make promises to return and take down the Georgian regime should Georgia attach again and then watch South Osetia and Abkhazia become fearless thorns in Georgia's side.”

“"US power .. is waning -"

Not so. We're perhaps too powerful. Imagine Bruce Lee (when he was alive) sparring with a retarded baby. He really can't do much but watch him spill the Cheerios, but at the same time, he has complete control over the baby.”

“btw y2, I find your "conversations" (as YOU call them) about as intellectually stimulating as 'The Gong Show'.�
cookiemonster
8:44:57 AM
8/11/08

And yet you keep coming back.

It was a provocation. Giving them russian passports then claiming you have to defend them is crap.

I talked to a friend of mine yesterday who had interviewed some Georgian officals a few months ago, and they saw this coming sooner or later. He pitched it how I said it earlier. The nationalism which props up Putin in charge of a corrupt and essentially weak country has to find it's expression somewhere, and Georgia is the ONLY feasible target for this.”

“Only to remind you your anti-Americanism isn't welcome here, not for conversation. I see that you don't know the difference between the two.”

“John McCain's insightful commentary on the situation

as opposed to Barack Obama's grade school knowledge of foreign policy”

“It's not really that insigntful is it though. A UN force in there - not so likely to happen is it. Which country would provide troops to it? America? Germany? the UK?

Basically there's a lot of background and a little history - but little attempt to understand the reasons for the conflict, or possible solutions.”

“of course, if he would have 'told it like it is' you'd say he wasn't being diplomatic, and was provoking Russia.”

“So what you're saying is that you can't keep up then Sarge - so you come out with that line of BS?

Come on man, try to frame your thoughts into an decent argument, for once in your life.”

“The difference is that John I'm sure had a good foundation of knowledge about the history of the situation there. He's quite sharp on global geopoltics.

Barack I'm sure had to have Georgia pointed out on a map for him. And then his "I protest (insert current conflict here)" statement written for him.”

“What? You say you beat your husband? that's messed up!”

“Not at all. I think it's an example of the way American foreign policy has been left following events rather than shaping them.

And labelling me as a peacenik just shows how much you just don't get it - even try to get it - though this isn't surprising.

At the heart of EVERYTHING I say about foreign policy is that there's no morality involved, and never has been. It's not a question of giving peace a chance, or war is morally wrong. I'm not against using force - but I question whether that is the best way to achieve your aims. Is it strategically right or wrong to go to war? Usually it's strategically wrong because it's so messy - and almost never goes exaclty to plan.

It's not the clean militaristic special ops that some of the internet warriors on here like to pretend - and even when things do go to plan in the short term, you can open up a whole other can of worms in the long-term - and you have to plan for this.

If you think I'm anti-American than you're a bigger fool than I've given you credit for - which is really saying something.”

“but yes our influence has declined dramatically and Russia has been badly mishandled. US power and influence is waning - challenging Carter era lows. - pedXing

lol wut? Russia has been pushed back and back since 9/11. It's been almost entirely unable to impose its will on its Near Abroad, while Nato/US has expanded ruthlessly into it.

This is certainly a nice little opportunity for Russia. It was a nice show of coordinated complex combined arms operations. Of course, the 76th Airborne Division is not exactly representative of the shape and capability of the rest of the Russian armed forces.

But this was a "perfect storm" that aligned for Russia. It was never unexpected that Russia would reassert itself again. Now that it is going far beyond protecting its "citizens" by entering into Georgia proper, it remains to be seen if this turns out to be the tidy little image makeover Russia was hoping for.
last edited: 8/11/08 9:28:27 AM”

““What? You say you beat your husband? that's messed up!” - cookiemonster

“Not at all." - y2

Oh, I stand corrected then. LOL!”

“Russia is running on SUV power. Maybe russia has it's own PNAC. HOHOHO. Maybe,PNRC.
Maybe PNAC=PNRC?
last edited: 8/11/08 9:37:34 AM”

“US power and influence is waning - challenging Carter era lows. - pedXing

When Obama takes office, you'll certainly be right about a new Carter era of low diplomatic influence and power.

Militarily, though, the US still controls the world's oceans. That power - real power - has not diminished at all.”

“When Obama takes office,
Mutt
9:42:38 AM
8/11/08

glad you're recognizing the ineviatable ;op”

“"glad you're recognizing the ineviatable (Obama taking office) ;op” - Y2

eviate: to emasculate; to dispossess of manhood

Actually, I believe Mutt is recognizing the eviatable.”

“How so?

We are not the world police. We don't need to be in everyone's business every time someone has a squabble. Let the U.N. do what it was created to do (I know, rolling eyes).

We don't have a right to defend our allies?

They are both allies, aren't they?

We don't have the ability?

At this point, no, I don't think so.”

“glad you're recognizing the ineviatable ;op

It's no big thing really. Bad things are inevitable just like the good things. LOL!”

“They are both allies, aren't they? - Nigal

”

“McCain's response sounds like an educated history professor

Barack's sounds more like Mr. Macky from Southpark. "Drugs are bad, ummkay."”

“They are both allies, aren't they? - Nigal

lol”

“Wow, Russian forces now within 35 miles of Tbilisi.”

“You guys always claim you want substance over style - there's really not much substance in either of the the responses.

Suggesting something that will never happen (UN peacekeepers) - doesn't really move the thing on. The rest of the statement can be garnered from five minutes with google.

MCCain is also getting a little ahead of events too, in his rush to appear an expert. First thing is a ceasefire.”

“Cripes, are you kidding me??? Barack is over his head in *any* foreign policy emergency, let alone a resurgent and belligerent Russia. You know why he doesn't talk about it? He'd appear to be a complete idiot. I'm sure he will eventually, but not before extensive tutoring. Meanwhile, the democrats will target their voters with outright exaggerations and lies about McCain
last edited: 8/11/08 10:50:40 AM”

“Shut up everybody! y2 has a friend who interviewed a Georgian official. Everyone else knows not what they say. y2 will explain things for us. May God forgive our souls.

y2, You're good now. The rest of the discussion is between yourself.”

“You'd think that with Russia gunning for the BTC pipeline that he'd want a president with extensive knowledge of foreign affairs. Or maybe he's just unaware of Russia's oil/ng leash that Europe is on.
last edited: 8/11/08 11:00:04 AM”